2016 Postmortem

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

126. This thread really exposes the people who have little knowledge of how campaigns work.

Sat Jul 18, 2015, 03:57 PM

Jul 2015

'He doesn't need polling' is a very ignorant statement.

MAYBE not in the primaries, where you're focused on basically the same pie as your opponents - voters who, on the whole, are going to agree with you on 99% of the issues. But in the general? IF this his is the policy he's going to adopt, he's going to fail.

People forget just how vital polling was to Obama in 2012. They had the demographics of the country spot on in that election, which allowed them to plan on what states to campaign in, even when the national narrative was saying: campaign here!

Look at Pennsylvania. Romney made a last minute change there - putting resources in the state to try to win it. This was at the expense of other regional states HE HAD TO WIN (Ohio, namely), but a risk he took that the media latched onto - could Romney REALLY win Pennsylvania?

On DU, back then, I remember some posters saying Obama needed to get to Pennsylvania. There were even some in the media saying the same. Clearly Romney felt he had an opening - but Obama didn't bite.

Why? Because his internals were showing he was going to win Pennsylvania.

Obama won 52-47.

It was the same in places like Florida. Despite press polls indicating Romney was pulling away there, Obama still held a presence and continued campaigning. He won the state.

Internal polls, when done right, are invaluable to a campaign. 2016 is likely going to be a close election and if Bernie decides to spend zero on polling, then his only other choice will be to go by national polls, which are less accurate. Had Obama gone by national polls instead of his internals in 2012, he would've been in Pennsylvania needlessly campaigning, losing out on stops in Ohio to lock up that state.

This doesn't even get into how you can utilize polling to actually get the vote out. Every successful campaign uses polling to establish their ground game in states. Without it, you're driving blind.

But whatever. He's free to run his campaign however he wants.

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Bernie Spends 0 on Polling, Hillary Spends $900k. Bernie Doesn't Need Polling [View all] sabrina 1 Jul 2015 OP

I`ve never understood this polling business. democrank Jul 2015 #1

That's not what campaigns use internal polls for. sufrommich Jul 2015 #4

Well you just said the same thing. zeemike Jul 2015 #12

There's a structural science to running a national sufrommich Jul 2015 #13

Oh I know it's true. zeemike Jul 2015 #24

One person's "manipulative and controlling" is another person's "responsive to my concerns and MADem Jul 2015 #51

And if all you want it talk that is all you will get. zeemike Jul 2015 #65

No--it's about targeting the message to the audience, and there's nothing wrong with that. MADem Jul 2015 #69

It's not the talk that matters it is the actions. zeemike Jul 2015 #83

That is true--people who talk and talk and talk about what they see as "wrong," but who have no path MADem Jul 2015 #84

No there is nothing wrong with polling, it's a tool. zeemike Jul 2015 #90

You do know that internal polls are generally not released or published? MADem Jul 2015 #93

It has nothing to do with evil motives. zeemike Jul 2015 #99

So now, responding to voter concerns is "marketing." MADem Jul 2015 #101

So being rude to you is expressing my ideas which conflict with yours? zeemike Jul 2015 #109

You're not being rude to ME. Not in the slightest! MADem Jul 2015 #113

Did you object when Obama used polling? Frances Jul 2015 #102

I don't want a president that agrees with me on every issue. zeemike Jul 2015 #105

Sen Sanders has been saying the same message over and over for years. It doesn't matter rhett o rick Jul 2015 #152

If "it doesn't matter to him who his audience is" then he'll have trouble in the big wide world. MADem Jul 2015 #153

When you tell the truth, it doesn't matter who your audience is. rhett o rick Jul 2015 #163

If your "truth" is "guns are good" and "the F-35 is a swell airplane" then YES, it DOES matter. nt MADem Jul 2015 #164

Faulty logic davidpdx Jul 2015 #172

But Vermont IS homogenous. I think you'd do well to pull the string on the conversation. MADem Jul 2015 #176

I grew up in a fairly homogeneous area davidpdx Jul 2015 #182

Sorry, can't do that. There's always a way, but it's often a difficult path. And the older one MADem Jul 2015 #184

Thanks, I knew you wouldn't answer davidpdx Jul 2015 #187

Don't ask questions that can't be answered, then. That kind of repartee is terribly lame. MADem Jul 2015 #188

No, it could be answered davidpdx Jul 2015 #190

I answered it--you just didn't like the answer. MADem Jul 2015 #191

This is naive in the extreme. Arkana Jul 2015 #62

Yes I know, I am too idealistic. zeemike Jul 2015 #67

Please explain how speaking to one's audience Arkana Jul 2015 #68

OK I will try. zeemike Jul 2015 #76

Just speaking for myself.... daleanime Jul 2015 #72

Well I give you credit for at least knowing yourself LordGlenconner Jul 2015 #116

Well I believe the unexamined life is not worth living. zeemike Jul 2015 #117

I agree with you. the_sly_pig Jul 2015 #169

It's nice to have a response with agreement...thanks. zeemike Jul 2015 #174

Exactly right they use polls to measure positive and negative responses to their message. A Simple Game Jul 2015 #18

Here's a reason to use polling... brooklynite Jul 2015 #29

I sometimes feel like this when I read GD/P: sufrommich Jul 2015 #35

That encapsulates a certain segment perfectly. nt msanthrope Jul 2015 #49

Love that!! redstateblues Jul 2015 #70

I agree-modern campaign organizations use a host of tools to get to voters Gothmog Jul 2015 #86

+a million tammywammy Jul 2015 #95

Nailed it. zappaman Jul 2015 #106

But....but....but!!! MADem Jul 2015 #156

I find it stupefying how a Hillary Clinton supporter would dismiss social media davidpdx Jul 2015 #173

No one is dismissing it, but it ain't ALL that. MADem Jul 2015 #175

Yes for older people, but it was getting out younger people in 2008 davidpdx Jul 2015 #181

I wasn't "mocking social media." I was mocking the POV that it's the be-all and end-all, and MADem Jul 2015 #185

Yes, you were davidpdx Jul 2015 #186

No, I wasn't. Anyone can read what I wrote. MADem Jul 2015 #189

Talk about twisted-pretzel logic davidpdx Jul 2015 #192

The topic of this thread is about internal polling for the 2016 elections. MADem Jul 2015 #193

And we've never seen THAT happen before, have we? MADem Jul 2015 #59

bla,bla haydukelives Jul 2015 #159

a lot of Bernie's supporters... quickesst Jul 2015 #6

The Clinton campaign isn't paying for the polls we see in the media, sufrommich Jul 2015 #8

I wondered about that quickesst Jul 2015 #22

Your difficulty PATRICK Jul 2015 #40

You rarely see the true internal polls done by the candidates Gothmog Jul 2015 #87

Of course not. zappaman Jul 2015 #107

I've yet to see a poll that favors Sanders. Thor_MN Jul 2015 #46

well said quickesst Jul 2015 #61

You think an elected representative has no need to know what Americans think? (nt) Recursion Jul 2015 #7

Yes but they might not win. Polling is about winning. When polls showed supporting same-sex marriage PoliticAverse Jul 2015 #44

And why did the American people change their minds on this issue? eridani Jul 2015 #150

Exactly. They changed public opinion by their activeness. n/t PoliticAverse Jul 2015 #151

That's a shame. It was the right thing to do but polls caused them not to it. Too bad sabrina 1 Jul 2015 #179

Candidates, when elected, represent 100% if their constituency, not just those who voted... George II Jul 2015 #60

Not true. There are different ways to express what your policies are, pnwmom Jul 2015 #140

You've got to know what the score is Gman Jul 2015 #2

He is very serious about winning this race. He does not need to know sabrina 1 Jul 2015 #121

It's not about changing the message. Drunken Irishman Jul 2015 #129

Polling could let him know whether people are accurately HEARING his message. pnwmom Jul 2015 #141

There is a limit to his issues Gman Jul 2015 #146

Bernie's views are the views of most Americans. daybranch Jul 2015 #3

That's true. Bernie doesn't need polling. onehandle Jul 2015 #5

Crap like this makes me worry that Bernie ... Adrahil Jul 2015 #9

Agreed Gothmog Jul 2015 #88

Hillary doesn't need polls. She's got her orders from this country's Overloads and will.. BlueJazz Jul 2015 #10

"overloads" is actually a good term for them MisterP Jul 2015 #110

they actually require the polling to make the case for how messages are crafted nashville_brook Jul 2015 #132

This is yet another reason to be concerned about Bernie as our nominee. DCBob Jul 2015 #11

Because he doesn't have to stick his finger in the wind to know where he stands? 99Forever Jul 2015 #14

No.. but he needs to know whats going on in the minds of the electorate... DCBob Jul 2015 #16

That's the difference between Bernie and Hillary. 99Forever Jul 2015 #20

I think he knows Vermont-type people very well, but beyond that, I dont think so. DCBob Jul 2015 #25

Post removed Post removed Jul 2015 #27

Ignorance is bliss. DCBob Jul 2015 #28

Ahhh, did I penetrate your DC bubble and touch a nerve? 99Forever Jul 2015 #31

DC bubble?? DCBob Jul 2015 #37

You seriously think you are going to order me around? 99Forever Jul 2015 #38

This^^^^ ybbor Jul 2015 #56

Wait Bobbie Jo Jul 2015 #80

+1,000! MADem Jul 2015 #115

+1 Well said. appalachiablue Jul 2015 #97

It's too bad when all they have are personal insults. Cha Jul 2015 #71

I guess you don't know about our Brunches with Bernie every Friday.. London Lover Man Jul 2015 #66

Flying blind? When his crowds keep on getting larger and SheilaT Jul 2015 #42

So plez be specific. On which issues do you think he isn't in tune with the public? nm rhett o rick Jul 2015 #180

And we have exhibit A. Adrahil Jul 2015 #30

Polls are propaganda tools, nothing more, nothing less. 99Forever Jul 2015 #33

And more proof. Adrahil Jul 2015 #39

Another major difference between Bernie and Hillary. 99Forever Jul 2015 #41

Yeah, and he has a unicorn horn too! nt Adrahil Jul 2015 #52

You tell us... Agschmid Jul 2015 #55

Bernie doesn't need "advisors"? zappaman Jul 2015 #108

There you are again. I love it when you kick my threads! sabrina 1 Jul 2015 #155

Agreed Evergreen Emerald Jul 2015 #47

Yeah, Bernie doesn't need things like "polls" Arkana Jul 2015 #63

Well 12, 000 people in a RED STATE tonight, don't agree with you! Looks like sabrina 1 Jul 2015 #160

Ron Paul pulled crowds that size too. Arkana Jul 2015 #161

No, he didn't but Barack Obama did. En Garde Jul 2015 #168

Actually he did. zappaman Jul 2015 #170

By your own source, Ron Paul never drew 10,000 and over -- much less two weeks in a row. En Garde Jul 2015 #171

I don't think he doesn't believe in polling. bobbobbins01 Jul 2015 #19

His supporters claim he doesn't need polling. DCBob Jul 2015 #21

Well it fits a narrative, but I don't see it as a bad thing bobbobbins01 Jul 2015 #26

And for some reason, being honest somehow implies Arkana Jul 2015 #64

It musta been .... MAGIC!!!!! MADem Jul 2015 #154

He doesn't need to spend any money on polling because moobu2 Jul 2015 #15

So basically you're saying, the fix is already in the software? NorthCarolina Jul 2015 #135

In the software? ConservativeDemocrat Jul 2015 #167

Establishment relics are unable to address changes on the go FlatBaroque Jul 2015 #17

This right here.. frylock Jul 2015 #112

Maybe that explains why he's losing so badly. DanTex Jul 2015 #23

Right? It seems like some WANT to lose the White House. Polling is a normal part of politics. If Metric System Jul 2015 #34

Bernie is not an idiot Stuckinthebush Jul 2015 #36

At this point PATRICK Jul 2015 #43

Running mate? No way. Hillary will go younger, and west. MADem Jul 2015 #162

On the same one where not caring is a winning strategy, I guess? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #144

Some people have no respect for the sacred principle... RufusTFirefly Jul 2015 #32

That could explain why Bernie isn't included in some polls hootinholler Jul 2015 #45

Newest meme wafting through Facebook this morning artislife Jul 2015 #48

X'er here too... London Lover Man Jul 2015 #120

I'm a boomer Dem_in_Nebr. Jul 2015 #133

I'm an old pre-boomer geezer, Paka Jul 2015 #166

Those hedge fund titans know how to influence public opinion. Hillary is good for business. En Garde Jul 2015 #50

The sage pair of advice ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #53

Random statistics analysis or demographic analysis....or money, who needs those to win the WH? Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #54

Candidates ALWAYS run their own internal polls, but.... George II Jul 2015 #57

Two Clintons in hand are better than one Bernie in the bush...it is as simple as that. Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #58

I'm sure Bernie will use polling later in the campaign cycle. bluedigger Jul 2015 #73

Kicking and feeling the Bern! marym625 Jul 2015 #74

This message was self-deleted by its author JI7 Jul 2015 #75

And notice he still leads DU polls and pro Sanders threads get more recs JI7 Jul 2015 #77

Is this for real? Agschmid Jul 2015 #85

No. I'm 99% sure that poster was joking. Cali_Democrat Jul 2015 #94

Okay cause I literally can't at this point... Agschmid Jul 2015 #96

Yes, exactly. He doesn't need polls at this point, he knows he has to get his name sabrina 1 Jul 2015 #139

Actually he does poll iandhr Jul 2015 #78

Sanders is smart. He sees now that there are polls on du and other JI7 Jul 2015 #81

polling is for jocks olddots Jul 2015 #79

Hillary isn't afraid of the results, she is polling higher than the GOP and other candidates running Thinkingabout Jul 2015 #82

As a voter, I have never based a vote on polls, and I never will. LWolf Jul 2015 #89

The political naivete is strong with this one. Really strong. nt. NCTraveler Jul 2015 #91

We're talking about someone who claimed Dr Hobbitstein Jul 2015 #119

Par for the course zappaman Jul 2015 #123

I forgot about that one... Dr Hobbitstein Jul 2015 #137

Yeah that was a memorable one. zappaman Jul 2015 #138

You ain't seen nothin yet! zappaman Jul 2015 #148

a politican who doesn't poll is like a teacher who doesn't evaluate his or her class dsc Jul 2015 #92

Polling is vital Cali_Democrat Jul 2015 #98

How will he know what positions to take today? pa28 Jul 2015 #100

That could be the difference between $45 million, $15 million or $2 million. LiberalAndProud Jul 2015 #103

So? zappaman Jul 2015 #104

This message was self-deleted by its author 1000words Jul 2015 #111

This message was self-deleted by its author DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #114

Sanders may be wise enough to save money on polling this early BrotherIvan Jul 2015 #118

^This!^ SoapBox Jul 2015 #127

“There go my people, I must find out where they are going so I can lead them.” Babel_17 Jul 2015 #122

With and army of advisors and pollsters and technicians, Clinton can't answer simple question whereisjustice Jul 2015 #124

Post removed Post removed Jul 2015 #125

This thread really exposes the people who have little knowledge of how campaigns work. Drunken Irishman Jul 2015 #126

Apparently internal polling is now a bad thing. zappaman Jul 2015 #128

"He doesn't need pollling" is the happy twin of "He doesn't need SUPERDELEGATES!" MADem Jul 2015 #158

Well, you could twist that to say Clinton is a job provider. valerief Jul 2015 #130

Polls aren't necessary when you know you have no chance at the nomination. tritsofme Jul 2015 #131

Bernie doesn't want polling Sheepshank Jul 2015 #134

As you say, a poll can "let a candidate know if their messaging is clear and understood." pnwmom Jul 2015 #142

Well I can only surmise.... Sheepshank Jul 2015 #149

Bernie also spends next to nothing on staff & consultants 99th_Monkey Jul 2015 #136

He doesn't have to spend money on staff the way Hillary does, we are all so willing sabrina 1 Jul 2015 #147

Well, he had BETTER start thinking about staff and organization. Adrahil Jul 2015 #183

He might be saving money not doing polls now, but if he runs in the General he needs to do them. pnwmom Jul 2015 #143

As a result of Clinton's polling silenttigersong Jul 2015 #145

+ 1000 Well Put !!!!!! orpupilofnature57 Jul 2015 #178

$300,000 a MONTH??? Spitfire of ATJ Jul 2015 #157

Good thing she has all that money, Paka Jul 2015 #165

MSM = Misanthropic Sycophant Monsters, speech coaches, smoke & mirror experts, Monsanto, on and on . orpupilofnature57 Jul 2015 #177