Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
61. The only number that matters on election day is
Mon Jul 27, 2015, 07:36 PM
Jul 2015

the incumbent party's approval ratings. If Obama is in the 45-50% range, tossup, above 50% (and consistently) she wins, if below 45% (and consistently) she's fucked. (in the absence of a Lewinsky-type "scandal" or Gore/Kerry gaffes, or rigged election)

Sanders? Raymond31 Jul 2015 #1
Mired in the mid-20s for favorability rating! George II Jul 2015 #21
mired? demwing Jul 2015 #133
cute table, but totally irrelevant to "approval" George II Jul 2015 #142
Dismissive, lol demwing Jul 2015 #156
do you understand what portion of the nation went to a Bernie event? .003% Sheepshank Aug 2015 #196
I don't think we ever really saw an accurate headcount of those events, either. Will we ever? George II Aug 2015 #231
Bernie's consistently RISING as people get to know him. sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #230
2007 Rosa Luxemburg Aug 2015 #239
he is drawing crowds and seems to be gaining support restorefreedom Jul 2015 #26
And the converse of that: the more people see Sanders, the more people choose him n/t arcane1 Jul 2015 #27
very true! nt restorefreedom Jul 2015 #32
Yeah, because Sanders is a great debater DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #41
do you see him with so called journalists? restorefreedom Jul 2015 #49
You mean he is able to revert to the answer he wants to give rather than the one ask? Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #194
he answers the questions asked restorefreedom Aug 2015 #201
He reverts back to his finanical lines, when ask about POC, it is back to the finanical answer or Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #203
he has said that racial inequality restorefreedom Aug 2015 #217
Okay, perhaps in the debates he will correct these issues and not give the canned Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #218
if we ever have a debate that is restorefreedom Aug 2015 #219
Maybe they won't have any debates, this will solve the problem. Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #220
that would be dws's dream.nt restorefreedom Aug 2015 #221
No, it would be the dream of those posting here complaining about debates and how they are handled. Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #222
they are being handled horribly restorefreedom Aug 2015 #223
Is this based on your expertise? Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #224
based on the data restorefreedom Aug 2015 #225
What data, link please Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #226
you really don.t know restorefreedom Aug 2015 #227
And how did this help the candidates? If the candidates are not able to get their message out in 6 Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #228
there were 27 for 2 contenders restorefreedom Aug 2015 #229
And it was too damn many. Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #236
i agree restorefreedom Aug 2015 #237
The Party needs debates. Period. NYCButterfinger Aug 2015 #235
that seems to be what dws wants. nt restorefreedom Aug 2015 #238
Are we to assume that you are opposed to Economic Equality for POC and dismissive sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #240
How does Hillary do in debates? bvar22 Jul 2015 #59
Your compadre suggested Bernie beat that intellectual giant, Chuck Todd in a debate so he ... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #62
Grasping at straws again. bvar22 Jul 2015 #67
If you believe Bernie Sanders is the reincarnation of Daniel Webster there is nothing... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #68
Absurd Strawman. bvar22 Jul 2015 #69
This message was self-deleted by its author DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #70
You don't get to determine the parameters of the debate DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #71
No. We don't get to determine those. Fawke Em Jul 2015 #74
I was referring to the debates on DU DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #79
I certainly DO get to determine the parameters of the debate, bvar22 Jul 2015 #95
Maybe you boss people around in real life DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #97
OK. bvar22 Jul 2015 #100
I am not interested in one cherry picked answer from the dozens of debates... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #105
Bingo! rock Jul 2015 #153
I might add... malokvale77 Jul 2015 #114
I have explained several times the etymology of my screen name... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #147
When supporting DEMOCRATIC politicians and Democratic constituencies BainsBane Jul 2015 #154
Thank you. Some folks have a strange definition of what is liberal and progressive and what isn't. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #155
Well said! ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #157
And THAT is why most of us are members of DU, thanks for your excellent post! George II Jul 2015 #162
You not only didn't make such offensive remarks, okasha Jul 2015 #165
While you didn't say any of those things, John Poet Jul 2015 #167
I was responding to this calumny as is my right. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #171
I could add a few, from what I know about you; but, that would be over-kill ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #177
It's a pity that a long time member here has to be attacked because the member's screen name.... George II Jul 2015 #161
Exactly ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #163
The etymology of my name... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #185
Interesting explanation. George II Jul 2015 #187
According to my interlocutor I chose that handle... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #188
. George II Jul 2015 #190
From your PM to me... malokvale77 Jul 2015 #184
Pretty low, posting the contents of a PM (PRIVATE MESSAGE) publicly. George II Jul 2015 #186
DU should really make up it's mind on this. malokvale77 Jul 2015 #189
oh ffs...people pick screen names without your input and advice, ok? Sheepshank Aug 2015 #198
Congratulations - you've now had two "straw" cliches/deflections used against you... George II Jul 2015 #143
Right? ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #158
If the issue at hand is Hillary Clinton's favorability rating, remember.......... George II Jul 2015 #75
OK, this really made me laugh. malokvale77 Jul 2015 #111
Where is your link to dispute this? Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #195
One of the benefits of the internet. to have these reminders of past performances at the ready.. 2banon Aug 2015 #214
Actually madokie Jul 2015 #65
Cool! We're "acolytes" now. Le Taz Hot Jul 2015 #88
"His acolytes"? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #101
Tell Hillary to insist on the debates artislife Jul 2015 #102
Funny how followers of a candidate who isn't even in the Party.... George II Jul 2015 #168
Is that it? heh nt artislife Jul 2015 #170
This message was self-deleted by its author Corruption Inc Jul 2015 #191
I can't copy and paste because I am on a public library computer. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #192
I expected Hillary's favorables and unfavorables to fluctuate with time. winter is coming Jul 2015 #51
yeah i honestly restorefreedom Jul 2015 #54
No time for debates when she's vacay-ing in $18 million shack in the Hamptons! Divernan Jul 2015 #60
no! the only threat to Dems winning is third parties/primaries MisterP Jul 2015 #85
...or sabotage from the Democratic Party leadership....like this: bvar22 Jul 2015 #98
with a strong source of money coming in the party's funding remains the same win or lose, national- MisterP Jul 2015 #118
....! KoKo Aug 2015 #232
Well, the difference between Hillary Clinton's unfavorable/favorable is 3 points, the difference... George II Jul 2015 #78
What should concern Clinton followers is that... malokvale77 Jul 2015 #116
Actually, "Bernie Who?" at this point is great news for Bernie. Dawgs Jul 2015 #136
I think it's the other way around, particularly with respect to favorability ratings... George II Aug 2015 #206
Here's a more significant number: among Independents, HRCs negatives are -60 leveymg Aug 2015 #204
example after example doesn't convince me that crowds=winning an election Sheepshank Jul 2015 #149
Why Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go cantbeserious Jul 2015 #2
You mean like the evil corporate gun industry? JaneyVee Jul 2015 #13
Maybe the candidate you are alluding to... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #16
Do you think Hillary would vote... malokvale77 Jul 2015 #117
Or the evil Minutemen? lunamagica Jul 2015 #17
More people have been held up by banksters artislife Jul 2015 #103
The banksters have been responsible for more... malokvale77 Jul 2015 #120
In what way Charlie? Sheepshank Jul 2015 #152
I was going to point out the defense industry too Sheepshank Jul 2015 #150
Because the lesser of the social evils are more important to some? tia uponit7771 Jul 2015 #66
Without Economic Justice - What Good Is Social Justice cantbeserious Aug 2015 #200
You have that backwards. okasha Aug 2015 #208
So The 1% Can Keep All Enslaved And Poor - Some Justice cantbeserious Aug 2015 #213
Clean miss. okasha Aug 2015 #215
Seem To Be Whistling A Different Tune To These Ears cantbeserious Aug 2015 #216
I am not settling for the lessor of the Two Corporate Evils, why would I settle for the lesser Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #197
HRC - Corporate Controlled By Oligarchs, Corporations And Banks - An Unabashed 1% Minion cantbeserious Aug 2015 #199
Bernie votes to fund wars and this helps defense contractors, corporations. Bernie attends events Thinkingabout Aug 2015 #202
Did Bernie Report 140 Million Dollars In Taxable Income Since 2007 - Bill And Hillary Did cantbeserious Aug 2015 #207
She will solve her favorability problems in the general election after she summarily dispatches... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #3
LOL! Dream on, McDuff! peacebird Jul 2015 #7
Feeling the Bern DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #12
Good point Thinkingabout Jul 2015 #37
OK, putting all politics aside, that was funny. AllFieldsRequired Jul 2015 #52
But she's so good at losing. artislife Jul 2015 #104
She has never lost a general election. I believe your candidate has lost several... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #106
He never lost in a general election either artislife Jul 2015 #107
He never lost in a general election either DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #108
My mistake...he lost a senate election artislife Jul 2015 #109
Glad I was able to be of assistance. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #110
That's a nice young man helping you. artislife Jul 2015 #112
If I was a smaller man I would take umbrage at you suggesting I was a deaf woman DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #113
Go back to that thread--see ALL the posts artislife Jul 2015 #115
Mea culpa, like justin I am tired too... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #119
A real man walking the talk. Another is your hero, Muhammad Ali who fought the MIC. freshwest Aug 2015 #209
Here is another photo from that era when he met with other black athletes to discuss his... DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #210
Thanks for that. A true hero indeed. I caught flak for supporting him. He was a brave man. n/t freshwest Aug 2015 #212
Sanders lost in state-wide general elections THREE times: George II Jul 2015 #148
Hah... malokvale77 Jul 2015 #121
Hey, only 40 more points to go, right!? Adrahil Jul 2015 #18
Hmm... in New Hampshire, it's only 10 points. Fawke Em Jul 2015 #76
If Bernie can't win in New Hampshire, he can't win anywhere. Adrahil Jul 2015 #80
New Hampshire is not an accurate gauge for Sanders...it's almost like his home state.... George II Jul 2015 #83
One would hope he's "ascending", he started basically at zero. George II Jul 2015 #20
HRC was at 58% in aggregate polling in 12/13. She's at 57% now-7/15 DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #36
"Unnerving"! George II Jul 2015 #38
Joe Biden is at 12% DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #40
McDuff came of that challenge rather well. okasha Jul 2015 #125
??? ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #159
With what? All of the great progressive policy ideas? Dawgs Jul 2015 #137
Her experience, her accomplishments, and sheer force of will. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #139
They need to stop with this bullshit unfavorable numbers bigdarryl Jul 2015 #4
That is a very intelligent observation, sir. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #5
Right now the press is her biggest opponent bigdarryl Jul 2015 #6
That is another intelligent observation, sir. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #8
What!? But DU tells me that the Press coddles HRC!!!! Adrahil Jul 2015 #19
And that it's a government plot--sorta like "The X-files" ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #160
Nailed it. JaneyVee Jul 2015 #11
Correct - these polls are getting out of hand. But, to put these "favorable/unfavorable" numbers... George II Jul 2015 #28
That's not what this question is. jeff47 Jul 2015 #82
Good Points...Thanks. n/t KoKo Aug 2015 #234
Simon Cowell was right artislife Jul 2015 #122
Gee, you mean bullshit media lies and distortions are... JaneyVee Jul 2015 #9
" Remember when this place used to abhor the corporate media?" DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #15
Bernie's gotten a free pass from the media moobu2 Jul 2015 #10
The likely GOP nominee, Bush lll, wants to eliminate Medicare and says Americans are lazy... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #14
Hmm... kenfrequed Jul 2015 #22
If anybody will depress turnout he has shown no ability to engage African Americans and Latinos: DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #23
Of course... kenfrequed Jul 2015 #25
Put yourself in the other person's shoes...It's always a useful exercise. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #30
Hmm... kenfrequed Jul 2015 #33
She will win by reassembling the Obama Coalition DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #35
No she won't. eom Fawke Em Jul 2015 #77
I will answer your attempt at a rebuttal with the same paucity of thought, yes she will. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #81
And we know why that was. The 'big tent' wasn't exclusive enough for some, unfortunately. freshwest Aug 2015 #211
Not Only That... But There Would Be NO WAY... To Take Back EITHER House... WillyT Jul 2015 #86
I think they are counting on low turn out. malokvale77 Jul 2015 #123
Hey, that's Claire McCaskill's talking point. AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #31
Do all of Hilary Clinton's detractors try to find the most unflattering photographs of woman of a DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #42
If you have a complaint, register it with the author of the YOUTUBE video. AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #43
My complaint would be with the people who post them. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #45
You are not the hall monitor of DU. AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #47
Nor do I claim that mantel... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #48
Baseless accusation of misogyny. How unexpected. AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #50
The prima facie evidence DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #53
Riiiiiiiight. Can't dispute the facts so you go straight to accusations of misogyny. AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #55
I am sure Al Capone thought Eliot Ness was "pathetic" DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #57
Are You Saying That YOU'RE Elliot Ness ??? WillyT Jul 2015 #89
Please feel free to make any inference my premise suggests. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #90
Just Did... WillyT Jul 2015 #92
An A for you DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #93
He's good at crap like that. Comrade Grumpy Jul 2015 #129
And what are you good at? ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #164
Perhaps this: DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #173
I'll have to live with my posting history. Comrade Grumpy Jul 2015 #175
I am willing to submit your post and what it reveals about you and my life to the test of history. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #176
Photographs? What photographs? All I saw were videos. cherokeeprogressive Jul 2015 #72
Video, photograph, it's a difference without a distinction. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #73
That's a Photoshop. okasha Jul 2015 #124
None of the pictures are unflattering davidpdx Jul 2015 #131
As a fellow denizen of this board indicated the introduction of the video has been photoshopped. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #134
I did not see that post davidpdx Jul 2015 #182
Lookism is one of those subtle forms of prejudice that rubs me the wrong way... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #183
Great Job! kenfrequed Jul 2015 #135
I have agency and as part of that agency I get to decide what I respond to and how I respond. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #138
Regardless of your "agency", you should be embarrassed. n/t Dawgs Jul 2015 #140
Regardless of your "agency", you should be embarrassed. n/t DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #141
Yeah... kenfrequed Jul 2015 #145
I merely took umbrage at a photoshopped woman of a certain age.... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #146
So what? ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #166
These polls won't predict voter behavior. Why do I say that? JoePhilly Jul 2015 #24
I was looking at Romney's favorables at a national level... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #39
I'd suggest that ... JoePhilly Jul 2015 #44
Favorability questions are used as "meta" questions jeff47 Jul 2015 #84
No they don't. JoePhilly Jul 2015 #132
That assumes no opinions change. jeff47 Jul 2015 #172
Which is why you repeat the study, over and over ... JoePhilly Jul 2015 #174
+1 CountAllVotes Jul 2015 #29
What a warped view of Hillary. For somebody supposedly expecting a coronation, she has put in a lot Metric System Jul 2015 #34
How many supportershas declared coronation? None, must be the others thinks Hillary should be Thinkingabout Jul 2015 #46
Bernie talks good talking points FloridaBlues Jul 2015 #58
Love it. 840high Jul 2015 #96
Too bad some around here don't realize that it is ... CountAllVotes Jul 2015 #128
Turns out she's not likable enough after all. AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #56
Good summary. HooptieWagon Jul 2015 #63
The only number that matters on election day is ericson00 Jul 2015 #61
PBO Will Be > 50% approval because the unemployment rate will be < 5% DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #64
But Willy, haven't you heard? Le Taz Hot Jul 2015 #87
ROFLMAO !!! WillyT Jul 2015 #91
. . . Le Taz Hot Jul 2015 #94
Why don't you post Sanders'? Beacool Jul 2015 #99
Whoopsie! William769 Jul 2015 #126
Thanks Bill~ Cha Jul 2015 #127
DAMN, those numbers are "unnerving"! George II Jul 2015 #169
But it's too early for polls to matter ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #178
Let's just say in the coming month's we are going to see a huge crash & bern. William769 Jul 2015 #179
I see nothing here to unnerve me here. Lol~ sheshe2 Jul 2015 #180
I aim to please. William769 Jul 2015 #181
'Oh, numbers, numbers, the thing things are made of!' ~ Scienteeze. n/t freshwest Aug 2015 #193
doubt she's unnerved 6chars Jul 2015 #130
Yawn ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #144
looking forward to the time when you will actually post a string of positives for your candidate Sheepshank Jul 2015 #151
It seems that Hillary is pretty popular until she becomes a presidential candidate. fbc Aug 2015 #205
But somehow Bernard can not catch her. moobu2 Aug 2015 #233
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»4 Poll Numbers That Shoul...»Reply #61