2016 Postmortem

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)

42. Plotting data points and drawing a line is not trend analysis. n/t

Thu Jul 30, 2015, 08:13 AM

Jul 2015

But really, polls are pretty meaningless. Heck, Trump is trumping bush and rubio in Florduh, according to polls.

Really? ... you talk about polls being pretty meaningless ... after (weakly) citing to "trend analysis"? ... Really?

Only on DU!

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Morning Consult: Clinton-59% Sanders-16% [View all] Adrahil Jul 2015 OP

I don't understand who is supporting her ram2008 Jul 2015 #1

+1 daleanime Jul 2015 #2

according to the poll, her lead is thinnest among the young... Adrahil Jul 2015 #3

This might be the first evidence of a Sanders stall ram2008 Jul 2015 #6

Nate Silver predicted a while back that this level is around Bernie's ceiling Godhumor Jul 2015 #7

It can work ram2008 Jul 2015 #13

Interesting... Adrahil Jul 2015 #26

Women and POC account for nearly eighty percent of the Democratic party. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #72

I agree with that. Bernie would need to make inroads with both to Adrahil Jul 2015 #73

Those are electoral votes, not delegates. A map of delegates would be completely different. George II Jul 2015 #65

I know, I'm using it as a way to show the states where they could win the most percentage ram2008 Jul 2015 #69

Keep in mind some states divide delegates according to votes for each candidate, some states..... George II Jul 2015 #70

Clinton had all the super delegates in 08. ram2008 Jul 2015 #71

and conservatives BainsBane Jul 2015 #36

Mostly agree. Adrahil Jul 2015 #25

This is my experience, too. murielm99 Jul 2015 #35

Sounds like Sanders is bringing in a fair number of disaffected voters, though. winter is coming Jul 2015 #49

We Clinton supporters exist and are the majority Godhumor Jul 2015 #4

Not from the people I've talked to. moobu2 Jul 2015 #17

? From below it looks like you also support Clinton Godhumor Jul 2015 #19

Actually, you have that reversed ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #40

Yes that is what I meant. We being Clinton supporters Godhumor Jul 2015 #43

Oh ... Okay. 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #44

Darn Straight n/t Tommy2Tone Jul 2015 #102

I think this is what is known as a "self selected sample". n/t PoliticAverse Jul 2015 #9

NO, it's not self-selected (read their methodology) Adrahil Jul 2015 #51

I was referring to the poster noting "I've yet to meet a Hillary supporter in real life.". PoliticAverse Jul 2015 #54

We are a randomly produced Mandelbrot algorithm LuvLoogie Jul 2015 #11

#1 riversedge Jul 2015 #59

My entire family and everybody I know is voting for Hillary Clinton moobu2 Jul 2015 #16

Which hedge fund does your family run? Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #52

In 2008, Hillary Clinton got 18 million votes... brooklynite Jul 2015 #96

Nope, but there were an awful lot of folks Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #97

Nobody on the Clinton side is saying "everyone they know" are supporting Clinton... brooklynite Jul 2015 #98

Did you not even bother to read the comments in the thread before you replied? Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #99

Try Democrats. Historic NY Jul 2015 #28

I live in a Purpish City of a Red state ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #29

Did you even *TRY* or even bother looking up tonight's organizational events? cocainecowboy Jul 2015 #33

Oh ... I'm sure there is/will be an organizational event scheduled ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #38

A couple of days ago I saw a map of where the events were, I can't find it now. Do you have a link? George II Jul 2015 #67

That's a rhetorical question, right? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #78

you can easily find anyone who would say that about Obama and any other politician JI7 Jul 2015 #32

And I don't know one person leftynyc Jul 2015 #37

There is some age component to it. DanTex Jul 2015 #45

Great analysis, thanks. George II Jul 2015 #68

"But he can't win" Scootaloo Jul 2015 #79

Can't win the GE, which is why I don't support him in the primary. It's not circular. DanTex Jul 2015 #84

Add to which: "he can win if YOU vote for him" is foolish... brooklynite Jul 2015 #85

Actually it's terribly complicated Scootaloo Jul 2015 #93

You are ascribing beliefs to me that I don't have. DanTex Jul 2015 #94

No, I'm not Scootaloo Jul 2015 #95

Small sample size Yavin4 Jul 2015 #57

Do you spend much time on DU? VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #63

Volume and quantity are different units of measure n/t Scootaloo Jul 2015 #77

And DU is no measure of either "in real life" VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #82

You just used it as a counter to someone talking about real life Scootaloo Jul 2015 #83

For the record I'm supporting her she has more experience and as far as Sanders. bigdarryl Jul 2015 #64

New York City or rural New York. I have yet to meet many Sanders followers in the NYC area. George II Jul 2015 #66

I would guess, people who still have landline telephones n/t Scootaloo Jul 2015 #76

You sound like a Republican Tommy2Tone Jul 2015 #101

This fits what I see around my circles... Sancho Jul 2015 #5

Bernie is just getting started RobertEarl Jul 2015 #8

I try to separate my advocacy from my analysis. Adrahil Jul 2015 #10

Your gut? RobertEarl Jul 2015 #12

What exactly is he offering? JaneyVee Jul 2015 #14

More than Hillary RobertEarl Jul 2015 #15

He does promise a lot moobu2 Jul 2015 #18

That's why RobertEarl Jul 2015 #21

Past performance? What progressive legislation has he introduced and/or sheparded to passage ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #41

Really? You have no clue? RobertEarl Jul 2015 #75

LOL ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #89

You got me, dang it RobertEarl Jul 2015 #100

I am neither upset, nor, frustrated ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #104

You seem very upset RobertEarl Jul 2015 #105

No, I am not upset ... But why would I build up HRC? ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #107

Why so negative at Bernie? RobertEarl Jul 2015 #108

All I do is respond ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #109

It's all just negative RobertEarl Jul 2015 #110

Okay, but I doubt Dr. King would be marching ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #111

MLK would love the Bern RobertEarl Jul 2015 #112

Perhaps; but, ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #113

I understand MLK's message RobertEarl Jul 2015 #114

Okay ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #115

He's like Trump Tommy2Tone Jul 2015 #103

Exactly. moobu2 Jul 2015 #106

If you're not willing to take a chance... HerbChestnut Jul 2015 #116

Don't get me wrong I like Bernie Tommy2Tone Jul 2015 #117

I understand. HerbChestnut Aug 2015 #118

It's a big gut! Adrahil Jul 2015 #20

I don't trust your gut RobertEarl Jul 2015 #22

Doubt the gut at your own peril! Adrahil Jul 2015 #27

What "trend analysis"? ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #30

My gut reaction? RobertEarl Jul 2015 #31

Plotting data points and drawing a line is not trend analysis. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #42

The real trend tho RobertEarl Jul 2015 #74

Let's look at Hillary's numbers going "down"... brooklynite Jul 2015 #86

Okay. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #87

Polls aren't meaningless. Just read 538. Adrahil Jul 2015 #48

True that. nt Bobbie Jo Jul 2015 #39

Only if you assume a linear trend, which you shouldn't mythology Jul 2015 #46

Judging from photos of his organizing parties yesterday sufrommich Jul 2015 #47

it's exactly that trend that is killing Republicans Sheepshank Jul 2015 #62

Your analysis is "my gut tells me"? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #80

Well, you could try using some data... Adrahil Aug 2015 #122

No detailed kcjohn1 Jul 2015 #23

Yeah, like I said in the OP, they need to release Adrahil Jul 2015 #24

Here are details for the survey... riversedge Jul 2015 #61

Bernie has peaked. DCBob Jul 2015 #34

Amazing how the primary is 'over' before the first debate. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #56

And before that, you were hearing that there would be no challengers to Clinton Scootaloo Jul 2015 #81

Are we not allowed to predict things here?? DCBob Aug 2015 #119

Prediction implies 'future', not 'present'. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #120

Ok.. Bernie will peak tomorrow. DCBob Aug 2015 #121

Hah. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #123

You may be right. DCBob Aug 2015 #124

Here's their survey Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #50

That one is not complete... Adrahil Jul 2015 #53

But it gives you a feel for the respondents Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #55

Yeah, but... Adrahil Jul 2015 #58

Thanks mucho riversedge Jul 2015 #60

Are they polling by land line? Vinca Jul 2015 #88

Nope... land lines and cell phones. Adrahil Jul 2015 #90

I just think it's odd that I have both a land line and cell phone and I'm polled Vinca Jul 2015 #91

Low-end pollster use land-lines only... Adrahil Jul 2015 #92