2016 Postmortem

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)

44. Oh ... Okay.

Reply to Godhumor (Reply #43)

Thu Jul 30, 2015, 08:31 AM

Jul 2015

But you will see that exact thought among Bernie supporters.

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Morning Consult: Clinton-59% Sanders-16% [View all] Adrahil Jul 2015 OP

I don't understand who is supporting her ram2008 Jul 2015 #1

+1 daleanime Jul 2015 #2

according to the poll, her lead is thinnest among the young... Adrahil Jul 2015 #3

This might be the first evidence of a Sanders stall ram2008 Jul 2015 #6

Nate Silver predicted a while back that this level is around Bernie's ceiling Godhumor Jul 2015 #7

It can work ram2008 Jul 2015 #13

Interesting... Adrahil Jul 2015 #26

Women and POC account for nearly eighty percent of the Democratic party. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #72

I agree with that. Bernie would need to make inroads with both to Adrahil Jul 2015 #73

Those are electoral votes, not delegates. A map of delegates would be completely different. George II Jul 2015 #65

I know, I'm using it as a way to show the states where they could win the most percentage ram2008 Jul 2015 #69

Keep in mind some states divide delegates according to votes for each candidate, some states..... George II Jul 2015 #70

Clinton had all the super delegates in 08. ram2008 Jul 2015 #71

and conservatives BainsBane Jul 2015 #36

Mostly agree. Adrahil Jul 2015 #25

This is my experience, too. murielm99 Jul 2015 #35

Sounds like Sanders is bringing in a fair number of disaffected voters, though. winter is coming Jul 2015 #49

We Clinton supporters exist and are the majority Godhumor Jul 2015 #4

Not from the people I've talked to. moobu2 Jul 2015 #17

? From below it looks like you also support Clinton Godhumor Jul 2015 #19

Actually, you have that reversed ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #40

Yes that is what I meant. We being Clinton supporters Godhumor Jul 2015 #43

Oh ... Okay. 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #44

Darn Straight n/t Tommy2Tone Jul 2015 #102

I think this is what is known as a "self selected sample". n/t PoliticAverse Jul 2015 #9

NO, it's not self-selected (read their methodology) Adrahil Jul 2015 #51

I was referring to the poster noting "I've yet to meet a Hillary supporter in real life.". PoliticAverse Jul 2015 #54

We are a randomly produced Mandelbrot algorithm LuvLoogie Jul 2015 #11

#1 riversedge Jul 2015 #59

My entire family and everybody I know is voting for Hillary Clinton moobu2 Jul 2015 #16

Which hedge fund does your family run? Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #52

In 2008, Hillary Clinton got 18 million votes... brooklynite Jul 2015 #96

Nope, but there were an awful lot of folks Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #97

Nobody on the Clinton side is saying "everyone they know" are supporting Clinton... brooklynite Jul 2015 #98

Did you not even bother to read the comments in the thread before you replied? Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #99

Try Democrats. Historic NY Jul 2015 #28

I live in a Purpish City of a Red state ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #29

Did you even *TRY* or even bother looking up tonight's organizational events? cocainecowboy Jul 2015 #33

Oh ... I'm sure there is/will be an organizational event scheduled ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #38

A couple of days ago I saw a map of where the events were, I can't find it now. Do you have a link? George II Jul 2015 #67

That's a rhetorical question, right? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #78

you can easily find anyone who would say that about Obama and any other politician JI7 Jul 2015 #32

And I don't know one person leftynyc Jul 2015 #37

There is some age component to it. DanTex Jul 2015 #45

Great analysis, thanks. George II Jul 2015 #68

"But he can't win" Scootaloo Jul 2015 #79

Can't win the GE, which is why I don't support him in the primary. It's not circular. DanTex Jul 2015 #84

Add to which: "he can win if YOU vote for him" is foolish... brooklynite Jul 2015 #85

Actually it's terribly complicated Scootaloo Jul 2015 #93

You are ascribing beliefs to me that I don't have. DanTex Jul 2015 #94

No, I'm not Scootaloo Jul 2015 #95

Small sample size Yavin4 Jul 2015 #57

Do you spend much time on DU? VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #63

Volume and quantity are different units of measure n/t Scootaloo Jul 2015 #77

And DU is no measure of either "in real life" VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #82

You just used it as a counter to someone talking about real life Scootaloo Jul 2015 #83

For the record I'm supporting her she has more experience and as far as Sanders. bigdarryl Jul 2015 #64

New York City or rural New York. I have yet to meet many Sanders followers in the NYC area. George II Jul 2015 #66

I would guess, people who still have landline telephones n/t Scootaloo Jul 2015 #76

You sound like a Republican Tommy2Tone Jul 2015 #101

This fits what I see around my circles... Sancho Jul 2015 #5

Bernie is just getting started RobertEarl Jul 2015 #8

I try to separate my advocacy from my analysis. Adrahil Jul 2015 #10

Your gut? RobertEarl Jul 2015 #12

What exactly is he offering? JaneyVee Jul 2015 #14

More than Hillary RobertEarl Jul 2015 #15

He does promise a lot moobu2 Jul 2015 #18

That's why RobertEarl Jul 2015 #21

Past performance? What progressive legislation has he introduced and/or sheparded to passage ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #41

Really? You have no clue? RobertEarl Jul 2015 #75

LOL ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #89

You got me, dang it RobertEarl Jul 2015 #100

I am neither upset, nor, frustrated ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #104

You seem very upset RobertEarl Jul 2015 #105

No, I am not upset ... But why would I build up HRC? ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #107

Why so negative at Bernie? RobertEarl Jul 2015 #108

All I do is respond ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #109

It's all just negative RobertEarl Jul 2015 #110

Okay, but I doubt Dr. King would be marching ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #111

MLK would love the Bern RobertEarl Jul 2015 #112

Perhaps; but, ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #113

I understand MLK's message RobertEarl Jul 2015 #114

Okay ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #115

He's like Trump Tommy2Tone Jul 2015 #103

Exactly. moobu2 Jul 2015 #106

If you're not willing to take a chance... HerbChestnut Jul 2015 #116

Don't get me wrong I like Bernie Tommy2Tone Jul 2015 #117

I understand. HerbChestnut Aug 2015 #118

It's a big gut! Adrahil Jul 2015 #20

I don't trust your gut RobertEarl Jul 2015 #22

Doubt the gut at your own peril! Adrahil Jul 2015 #27

What "trend analysis"? ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #30

My gut reaction? RobertEarl Jul 2015 #31

Plotting data points and drawing a line is not trend analysis. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #42

The real trend tho RobertEarl Jul 2015 #74

Let's look at Hillary's numbers going "down"... brooklynite Jul 2015 #86

Okay. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #87

Polls aren't meaningless. Just read 538. Adrahil Jul 2015 #48

True that. nt Bobbie Jo Jul 2015 #39

Only if you assume a linear trend, which you shouldn't mythology Jul 2015 #46

Judging from photos of his organizing parties yesterday sufrommich Jul 2015 #47

it's exactly that trend that is killing Republicans Sheepshank Jul 2015 #62

Your analysis is "my gut tells me"? Scootaloo Jul 2015 #80

Well, you could try using some data... Adrahil Aug 2015 #122

No detailed kcjohn1 Jul 2015 #23

Yeah, like I said in the OP, they need to release Adrahil Jul 2015 #24

Here are details for the survey... riversedge Jul 2015 #61

Bernie has peaked. DCBob Jul 2015 #34

Amazing how the primary is 'over' before the first debate. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Jul 2015 #56

And before that, you were hearing that there would be no challengers to Clinton Scootaloo Jul 2015 #81

Are we not allowed to predict things here?? DCBob Aug 2015 #119

Prediction implies 'future', not 'present'. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #120

Ok.. Bernie will peak tomorrow. DCBob Aug 2015 #121

Hah. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Aug 2015 #123

You may be right. DCBob Aug 2015 #124

Here's their survey Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #50

That one is not complete... Adrahil Jul 2015 #53

But it gives you a feel for the respondents Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #55

Yeah, but... Adrahil Jul 2015 #58

Thanks mucho riversedge Jul 2015 #60

Are they polling by land line? Vinca Jul 2015 #88

Nope... land lines and cell phones. Adrahil Jul 2015 #90

I just think it's odd that I have both a land line and cell phone and I'm polled Vinca Jul 2015 #91

Low-end pollster use land-lines only... Adrahil Jul 2015 #92