Nate Silver: Clinton, Sanders and Biden

[Attorney in Texas]

37. I would not bet against Nate. Plus, for Biden to run for president, he'd have to choose to end his

tenure as Vice President (and possibly end his tenure as an elected official) running as an underfunded underdog against a long-time political ally with whom he agrees on almost every significant political issue.

Clinton has staked out the Establishment-Centrist segment of the party (where Biden would have probably cast himself if he were running), Sanders has staked out the Liberal segment of the party, even O'Malley has eaten into the Chesapeake Bay area support that would have gone to Biden if he had entered the race earlier, and if there was a great opportunity for a candidate to run to the right of Clinton then Webb's campaign would probably be making more headlines.

While I'd be happy for another voice at the debates, I just don't see Biden wanting to end his tenure as Vice President spending all day on the phone and in the backrooms trying to coax Clinton supporters to flip to his late-to-the-game underdog campaign. That does not seem to be something Biden would enjoy or something that would likely result in the nomination.