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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Brand new Ipsos Reid poll-HRC-55% SBS-18%/ JB 11%/ M O 2%---DT 21% JB 12% [View all]DemocratSinceBirth
(101,655 posts)21. Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose ...
Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose everywhere else:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else
And the NH poll that some folks are touting to the moon might be an outlier:
Sam Wang retweeted
Daily Kos Elections @DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's poll was conducted by R. Kelly Myers, who used to run UNH, one of the worst pollsters in the world https://www.linkedin.com/in/rkellymyers
Daily Kos Elections @DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's poll was conducted by R. Kelly Myers, who used to run UNH, one of the worst pollsters in the world https://www.linkedin.com/in/rkellymyers
Sam Wang @SamWangPhD Aug 11
God, you people are saps. First poll from this organization in six years, no track record, outlier data point. Geez.
God, you people are saps. First poll from this organization in six years, no track record, outlier data point. Geez.
Drew Linzer @DrewLinzer Aug 12
It's possible @SenSanders could catch @HillaryClinton in NH, but a robust poll smoother shows he's not there yet.
It's possible @SenSanders could catch @HillaryClinton in NH, but a robust poll smoother shows he's not there yet.

Daily Kos Elections @DKElections Aug 11
So, pollster who apparently hasn't polled any elections since 2008 releases buzz-y poll on 2016. Hmm.
Daily Kos Elections @DKElections Aug 11
Just checked Nexis. Can't find any Franklin Pierce U. polls since 2008 *primaries*. They really didn't even poll the general?
Daily Kos Elections @DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's polling arm falls under the Marlin Fitzwater Center: http://www.franklinpierce.edu/institutes/mfcc/about_mf.htm He was press sec'y for Reagan & Bush
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Brand new Ipsos Reid poll-HRC-55% SBS-18%/ JB 11%/ M O 2%---DT 21% JB 12% [View all]
DemocratSinceBirth
Aug 2015
OP
Look at the Republican results: Carson/Fiorina taking off; Walker tanking...
brooklynite
Aug 2015
#8
They don't say. That number struck me too, though it's not inconsistent with turnout.
Adrahil
Aug 2015
#14
Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose ...
DemocratSinceBirth
Aug 2015
#21
I doubt it. He has probably already written off South Carolina and is looking past it
totodeinhere
Aug 2015
#26
I know this is anecdotal but I live in Nevada and I'm active at my local precinct level.
totodeinhere
Aug 2015
#31
The conventional wisdom is that Clinton has strong support in Clark County
totodeinhere
Aug 2015
#35