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DemocratSinceBirth

(101,655 posts)
21. Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose ...
Fri Aug 14, 2015, 04:05 PM
Aug 2015

Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose everywhere else:


http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else



And the NH poll that some folks are touting to the moon might be an outlier:

Sam Wang retweeted
Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's poll was conducted by R. Kelly Myers, who used to run UNH, one of the worst pollsters in the world https://www.linkedin.com/in/rkellymyers



Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD Aug 11

God, you people are saps. First poll from this organization in six years, no track record, outlier data point. Geez.



Drew Linzer ‏@DrewLinzer Aug 12
It's possible @SenSanders could catch @HillaryClinton in NH, but a robust poll smoother shows he's not there yet.





Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections Aug 11
So, pollster who apparently hasn't polled any elections since 2008 releases buzz-y poll on 2016. Hmm.



Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections Aug 11
Just checked Nexis. Can't find any Franklin Pierce U. polls since 2008 *primaries*. They really didn't even poll the general?




Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's polling arm falls under the Marlin Fitzwater Center: http://www.franklinpierce.edu/institutes/mfcc/about_mf.htm … He was press sec'y for Reagan & Bush

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Who is DT? nt sufrommich Aug 2015 #1
The guy with the gerbil as his hairpiece Picking Dem Aug 2015 #2
D'Oh! Of course,thanks. nt sufrommich Aug 2015 #3
The gentleman with the most interesting hair. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #6
"Who is DT" - If you don't know, consider yourself lucky. n/t PoliticAverse Aug 2015 #4
National polls appear to have stabilized. nt Adrahil Aug 2015 #5
The more things change, the more they stay the same... brooklynite Aug 2015 #7
Look at the Republican results: Carson/Fiorina taking off; Walker tanking... brooklynite Aug 2015 #8
Wow at the "wouldn't vote"... Agschmid Aug 2015 #9
They don't say. That number struck me too, though it's not inconsistent with turnout. Adrahil Aug 2015 #14
Agree. Agschmid Aug 2015 #15
I'm still betting on Jeb. DCBob Aug 2015 #10
John Kasich (R) 1% DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #12
Kasich behind Jindal and Rick Perry taught_me_patience Aug 2015 #16
Its a HORSERACE: "Wouldn't Vote is Charging Quick on the Rail Stallion Aug 2015 #29
Looking good for Hillary. DCBob Aug 2015 #11
DU rec...nt SidDithers Aug 2015 #13
Didn't Nate Silver recently suggest Bernie's surge had plateaued? taught_me_patience Aug 2015 #17
Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose ... DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #21
That's a meaningless national poll. totodeinhere Aug 2015 #18
Please feel free to ignore... DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #19
I referred to early states in the plural, not just New Hampshire. totodeinhere Aug 2015 #27
In NH BainsBane Aug 2015 #22
SC might be the end of Bernie. DCBob Aug 2015 #24
I doubt it. He has probably already written off South Carolina and is looking past it totodeinhere Aug 2015 #26
Meh... my primary isn't until May.... Adrahil Aug 2015 #25
It shows Bernie has little appeal outside a few states that fit his sweetspot. DCBob Aug 2015 #30
I know this is anecdotal but I live in Nevada and I'm active at my local precinct level. totodeinhere Aug 2015 #31
There has not been much polling for Nevada so its not too clear but.. DCBob Aug 2015 #32
The conventional wisdom is that Clinton has strong support in Clark County totodeinhere Aug 2015 #35
I'm in Tennessee and the only Democratic bumper stickers Fawke Em Aug 2015 #34
K&R! SonderWoman Aug 2015 #20
Yawn billhicks76 Aug 2015 #23
I want any Dem to win over any Repub Frances Aug 2015 #28
Yawn. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #33
K&R. lunamagica Aug 2015 #36
People dont really know who Bernie Sanders is moobu2 Aug 2015 #37
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