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2016 Postmortem

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

30. It shows Bernie has little appeal outside a few states that fit his sweetspot.

Reply to totodeinhere (Reply #18)

Sat Aug 15, 2015, 06:29 AM

Aug 2015

Even if you just look at the early primary and caucus states Hillary is still looking very good. Only in NH does it appear to be close.

Here's how I see it playing out.

Iowa: Hillary wins by about 5-10 points.
NH: Bernie wins by a point or two... if everything goes perfectly for the Bern.
SC: Hillary wins in a blowout.
Nevada: Hillary wins by about 5-10 points

Super Tuesday: Hillary has a very big day and Bernie surrenders.

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Highlight:

Brand new Ipsos Reid poll-HRC-55% SBS-18%/ JB 11%/ M O 2%---DT 21% JB 12% [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 OP

Who is DT? nt sufrommich Aug 2015 #1

The guy with the gerbil as his hairpiece Picking Dem Aug 2015 #2

D'Oh! Of course,thanks. nt sufrommich Aug 2015 #3

The gentleman with the most interesting hair. DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #6

"Who is DT" - If you don't know, consider yourself lucky. n/t PoliticAverse Aug 2015 #4

National polls appear to have stabilized. nt Adrahil Aug 2015 #5

The more things change, the more they stay the same... brooklynite Aug 2015 #7

Look at the Republican results: Carson/Fiorina taking off; Walker tanking... brooklynite Aug 2015 #8

Wow at the "wouldn't vote"... Agschmid Aug 2015 #9

They don't say. That number struck me too, though it's not inconsistent with turnout. Adrahil Aug 2015 #14

Agree. Agschmid Aug 2015 #15

I'm still betting on Jeb. DCBob Aug 2015 #10

John Kasich (R) 1% DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #12

Kasich behind Jindal and Rick Perry taught_me_patience Aug 2015 #16

Its a HORSERACE: "Wouldn't Vote is Charging Quick on the Rail Stallion Aug 2015 #29

Looking good for Hillary. DCBob Aug 2015 #11

DU rec...nt SidDithers Aug 2015 #13

Didn't Nate Silver recently suggest Bernie's surge had plateaued? taught_me_patience Aug 2015 #17

Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose ... DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #21

That's a meaningless national poll. totodeinhere Aug 2015 #18

Please feel free to ignore... DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2015 #19

I referred to early states in the plural, not just New Hampshire. totodeinhere Aug 2015 #27

In NH BainsBane Aug 2015 #22

SC might be the end of Bernie. DCBob Aug 2015 #24

I doubt it. He has probably already written off South Carolina and is looking past it totodeinhere Aug 2015 #26

Meh... my primary isn't until May.... Adrahil Aug 2015 #25

It shows Bernie has little appeal outside a few states that fit his sweetspot. DCBob Aug 2015 #30

I know this is anecdotal but I live in Nevada and I'm active at my local precinct level. totodeinhere Aug 2015 #31

There has not been much polling for Nevada so its not too clear but.. DCBob Aug 2015 #32

The conventional wisdom is that Clinton has strong support in Clark County totodeinhere Aug 2015 #35

I'm in Tennessee and the only Democratic bumper stickers Fawke Em Aug 2015 #34

K&R! SonderWoman Aug 2015 #20

Yawn billhicks76 Aug 2015 #23

I want any Dem to win over any Repub Frances Aug 2015 #28

Yawn. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #33

K&R. lunamagica Aug 2015 #36

People dont really know who Bernie Sanders is moobu2 Aug 2015 #37