2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Howard Dean claims that Hillary is our best bet for 2016. I disagree. [View all]BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)It's very simple really. She doesn't differ all that much from Bernie Sanders when it comes to policies she'd like to push for, and unlike him, she can actually make it happen even with this Congress. In fact, she's far more progressive than her husband was and was already to the left of Obama back in 2008, and she has plenty of allies in Congress to help her. Sanders has none. Well, maybe Rand Paul.
And then there's basic math.
70-80% African-Americans support Hillary Clinton.
73% Hispanics/Latinos (and growing) support Hillary Clinton.
I don't know what the percentage will be among Asian-Americans, but President Obama received 73% of the Asian-American vote in 2012, and I don't doubt we'll support Hillary Clinton (if Joe Biden doesn't declare) over Bernie Sanders. Although we lean Democratic despite being the highest educated and having the highest income of any demographic - including Whites - and therefore should be leaning Republican, outright racist comments and experiencing racism and inequality in our personal lives plays a large role in pushing us to support the Democratic Party but not outright Socialists. We're still semi-conservative in heart and soul (some of us are pretty conservative socially, for example). Bernie Sanders is too liberal for most of us.
Also, according to FiveThirtyEight, Hillary Clinton has all but locked up the lion's share of endorsements from congressional Dems.
102 U.S. House Reps;
30 U.S. Senators;
7 Dem Governors.
Delegates:
She's also locked up 60% of delegates *needed in order to win the nomination.
How important are delegates?
In the 2008 campaign, Clinton actually won a plurality of the Democratic popular vote amassing 18 million votes to Barack Obamas 17.6 million, but she fell short on the delegate count, losing to Obama by less than 100 delegates.
To date, Bernie Sanders has not gotten a single delegate pledge.
President Obama didn't need Republicans to push through his agenda and that was a good thing since they showed an unprecedented zeal for obstructing him every which way they can. He still beat them - and is doing so now regarding the Iran Deal despite Dems being the minority in both chambers of Congress. Hillary Clinton, apparently, won't need them, either, because she'll have Democrats to back her up. Bernie Sanders, not having made friends in Congress in his 24+ years there, might not.
*edited to add those six words.