2016 Postmortem

jfern

(5,204 posts)

145. These were a division of percents, so simple fractions

Reply to Rstrstx (Reply #144)

Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:43 AM

Sep 2015

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NBC Marist: Hillary in very bad shape in general election in IA and NH [View all] jfern Sep 2015 OP

If Biden or Sanders becomes the front-runner he will be scrutinized and attacked too. Biden in Metric System Sep 2015 #1

So how come Obama never had ratings anywhere as bad as hers now? jfern Sep 2015 #2

Do what???? VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #4

Her favorable ratings are terrible and a sign that the general election jfern Sep 2015 #7

Yeah and guesss....what including Biden skews that poll... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #9

First, this is a general election poll and not a primary poll jfern Sep 2015 #12

I do understand the difference....but you are going to have to get past the Primary to make those VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #14

So if Hillary wins the primary and loses the general election jfern Sep 2015 #19

That is not happening sir.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #20

Not in the general jfern Sep 2015 #24

Yes in the General VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #64

That site thinks Jeb Bush has 35% odds of the nomination jfern Sep 2015 #72

Yes because he does. . VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #74

No, he's running a terrible campaign jfern Sep 2015 #78

It doesnt matter that YOU think that... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #79

Trump destroys Jeb in a one on one race jfern Sep 2015 #82

In one poll VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #83

LOL, no one likes Jeb jfern Sep 2015 #84

Oh you are wrong about that! VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #86

It's Red SOXS !! S O X S ! pangaia Sep 2015 #98

If not ahead of the GOP at this point, I'd say bring out the shovels Armstead Sep 2015 #32

"GOP respectable candidate?" Is that not an oxycotin? pangaia Sep 2015 #100

These polls have her in dire straights in IA and NH jfern Sep 2015 #62

No they dont VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #65

I'm talking about the general election jfern Sep 2015 #71

Yes and so am I... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #75

so am I..... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #103

Ah, but as you say, it is early yet... for BERNIE! pangaia Sep 2015 #101

Yeah...its early....and she is still kicking ass.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #104

"MY team?" The METS are my team. pangaia Sep 2015 #117

She wont....see the thing is.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #56

In NH, Biden polled 16% (ABC). HooptieWagon Sep 2015 #55

Baloney VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #57

Huh? The President's unfavorable numbers are around 50. Metric System Sep 2015 #18

Not in the average jfern Sep 2015 #26

Oh you dismiss odds...when they dont favor Sanders VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #58

What odds? Obama has much better favorables than Hillary's jfern Sep 2015 #63

Bullshit.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #66

That site isn't the actual odds jfern Sep 2015 #73

Yes it is actuals... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #76

The Y*****s are the evil empire. pangaia Sep 2015 #116

They may be....but they still have number crunchers VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #121

Nonsense. 99Forever Sep 2015 #10

Nonsense? So you're actually saying that neither Biden or Sanders would be scrutinized and attacked Metric System Sep 2015 #25

I'm sure Hillary supporters were using this same argument jfern Sep 2015 #31

It's not an argument. It's a reality! WHOEVER is the nominee will face scrutiny and attacks from Metric System Sep 2015 #33

And why would someone who starts with terrible favorable ratings jfern Sep 2015 #35

Absolutely they were. Hillary is toast; everyone knows it. Go Bernie! InAbLuEsTaTe Sep 2015 #52

Yes, nonsense. 99Forever Sep 2015 #45

I've thought about asking this question but don't think it would be recieved well... HereSince1628 Sep 2015 #30

I think you''re raising an imortant question that may be worth a thread of its own Armstead Sep 2015 #34

I find it quite strange, HereSince1628 Sep 2015 #39

But if you scrutinize Bernie you find he's been fighting for the people his whole life peacebird Sep 2015 #36

^^THIS!^^ InAbLuEsTaTe Sep 2015 #53

Sure, and maybe either of them will handle it better. Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #40

She isnt surviving the attacks? VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #67

Sure, everything is going just swell. Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #87

Why yes it is... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #88

"Not surviving" was your wording, not mine. Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #89

No sir it wasn't you said she wasn't going to survive the attacks against her... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #90

Where? Where did i use those words? Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #92

Oh....so one doesn't consider withstanding "attacks against her" VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #93

Thats funny. Like the epic fail where you made a silly accusation against me & got hidden yesterday? Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #97

did you not say? VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #91

Not dealing skillfully is not the same as "not surviving" Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #95

Parse it however you want.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #96

... Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #99

Yeah go back to sleep.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #102

Clearly. Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #105

Yes it does...doesn't it... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #111

Yep Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #119

Yeah particularly when they have absolutely no data to back up their VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #123

Hey, I know when I'm outmatched. Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #124

Come back when you have some "cyphering" to back up your claims! VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #125

You mean aside from the fact that even her buddy Ed Rendell thinks she's been performing poorly? Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #127

wrong... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #3

I don't see any other general election IA and NH polls there jfern Sep 2015 #5

They are there....as well as the Florida and Georgia polls too VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #6

What the heck do GA and FL primary polls have to do with jfern Sep 2015 #8

What do they have to do with? VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #11

This is a general election poll jfern Sep 2015 #13

let me give you an example... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #16

Yes, Hillary still leads in Iowa jfern Sep 2015 #21

Hillary still leads overall... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #22

I'm not talking about the primary jfern Sep 2015 #27

And she has a 57% chance of winning the General VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #80

You keep telling yourself that..... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #17

White people in IA and NH voted Obama twice jfern Sep 2015 #23

They might have.....but there are next to no Black people in Iowa VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #28

Hillary isn't going to do as well with blacks as Obama did jfern Sep 2015 #29

Blacks will vote for the Democrat in the GE Gman Sep 2015 #43

EXACTLY !!! VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #68

Uh no... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #69

Because he needs lots of black people's votes to win VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #81

There you go again... White states? Georgia is 59.7 white. 1monster Sep 2015 #47

And how many Black people VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #70

This message was self-deleted by its author cherokeeprogressive Sep 2015 #15

In Florida, most people are not paying any attention to the campaign yet. 1monster Sep 2015 #46

HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!! WillyT Sep 2015 #37

It's happening MissDeeds Sep 2015 #38

Hillary is SO yesterday. Bernie has never stopped lookin' for tomorrow. Go Bernie! InAbLuEsTaTe Sep 2015 #54

So yesterday she still has a 74% chance of winning! VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #77

scrambled eggs reddread Sep 2015 #94

And on ABC this morning and tonight... eom Purveyor Sep 2015 #85

NBC Marist: This is NOT OUR headline or conclusion! Fred Sanders Sep 2015 #41

NH is usually irrelevant to a Democratic victory. Gman Sep 2015 #42

Al Gore just laughed BeyondGeography Sep 2015 #51

IA and NH have been considered the two easiest swing states - if those two slip away, Midwestern Democrat Sep 2015 #59

IA more so is important to a path to victory Gman Sep 2015 #60

IOW: She will lose the Democratic nomination Amish Farmer Sep 2015 #44

Bernies net favorables will go up once his message gets out. Skwmom Sep 2015 #48

This will be a barnburner TSIAS Sep 2015 #49

Can't put much stock in these hypothetical match-ups. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #50

Those negative poll #s should scare the shit out of every Hillary supporter. askew Sep 2015 #61

Is Hillary actually running? It seems she is just dong controlled presentations. jalan48 Sep 2015 #106

Yeah she is....going to Puerto Rico this week.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #108

No Labor Day event? jalan48 Sep 2015 #114

yes she is....she already has some Union Endorsements as a matter of fact. VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #133

Good to hear-maybe something next year then. jalan48 Sep 2015 #136

She is not an elected official right now....you understand that right? VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #137

Sorry, I forgot. jalan48 Sep 2015 #139

She can she can tell an opinion VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #140

it doesn't say that at all.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #107

It's a real pollster, so scribd doesn't matter jfern Sep 2015 #110

oh right..... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #112

Those favorable ratings and her doing much worse than Biden jfern Sep 2015 #115

Much worse? VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #141

1987 looked very bad for George Bush Sr. ericson00 Sep 2015 #109

Obama's ratings are much better than Hillary's jfern Sep 2015 #113

No sir....she has a 57% chance of winning the GE...you are quoting ONE poll VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #118

The Huffington post average of 41.1-52.3 is many polls jfern Sep 2015 #120

so is Predictwise....it consolidates others VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #122

What people are predicting and what the favorables show jfern Sep 2015 #126

it doesn't matter....yours is just one blip.....they are consolidating ALL Datapoints! VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #128

Well, they're overvaluing Hillary jfern Sep 2015 #130

they ALL are? VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #131

I understand that Biden has the best odds according to them jfern Sep 2015 #132

better than Sanders yes..... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #134

7/11 > 42/72 jfern Sep 2015 #135

7/11 is not better than 42/72, though not by much Rstrstx Sep 2015 #138

42/72 = 58% jfern Sep 2015 #143

42/72 = 58% in probability, not odds Rstrstx Sep 2015 #144

These were a division of percents, so simple fractions jfern Sep 2015 #145

No sir they are not.... VanillaRhapsody Sep 2015 #142

+1,000,000 Dawson Leery Sep 2015 #129