Dear Vice President Biden: Thanks for all of your great service, but please don't run. If you want

[Attorney in Texas]

12. TRUMP: Noun. A candidate who cannot win the primary but weakens the party's nominee for the general

Last edited Tue Sep 8, 2015, 11:37 AM - Edit history (4)

election.

Vice President Biden:

Please don't be a Trump.

Sanders is an underdog because his views are more progressive than the ideological mid-point of the party.

For such an underdog to win the nomination, Sanders needs the consolidated support of the progressive wing of the party (and he's crushing this task) plus the consolidated support from other Democrats who may be choosing a candidate for reasons beyond ideology (such as those who dislike the idea of a "dynasty," those who don't like or trust Clinton personally or don't like her style, those who don't like a candidate who has peremptorily locked in so many establishment party endorsements so early in the nomination process before the grassroots have had time to consider the candidates, etc.).

You are unlikely to make inroads on Sanders' grassroots support from the progressive wing of the party who have chosen Sanders based on ideology (like me) because you have spent your whole very distinguished career at the ideological center of the party. You would, however, severely cut into Sanders' ability to gain the backing from segments of the party who will choose a candidate to support on grounds other than ideology (those voters who would prefer an alternative to Clinton but for reasons other than her ideology).

By cutting into Sanders ability to build support beyond the progressive wing of the party, your candidacy would reduce Sanders from an underdog on the rise to the head of movement that is much less likely to produce a nominee.

With that said, you take more votes from Clinton, but her pathway to the nomination has an almost unprecedented on-the-ground infrastructure, party establishment support, and fundraising network, and -- therefore -- is built with more room to survive the type of challenge you pose.

Although you cannot beat Clinton, your entry into the race would spur endless rounds of "Clinton campaign in crisis" MSM hand-wringing stories every time a fundraiser shifts to you or a politician withdraws from the Clinton campaign to support you (you're a well loved sitting VP so there will inevitably be a few defections but not nearly enough for you to win -- just enough to make Clinton look weaker).

Ultimately, you do not win because Sanders has unshakable support among progressives and Clinton has an insurmountable head start in terms of locking down centrist/party establishment support and fund-raising sources. In the process of losing the primary (for the third time), you kill off Sanders' underdog insurgency and weaken Clinton's candidacy in the general election (and this also changes Clinton's VP selection criteria and erodes Clinton's need to choose a progressive VP to unify the party if she barely beats Sanders in a Clinton-Sanders showdown).

You could turn into the Democratic version of Trump: a candidate who cannot win the nomination but whose candidacy weakens the party's nominee in the general election.

Please don't do that.