2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: OK I'll just say it: the dem establishment wants to lose this election [View all]RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)However, they are playing a very dangerous game.
The assumption is that people will come to their senses and prevent Trump from securing the Republican nomination. But if for some reason he does, Democrats and Republicans alike will be falling over themselves to elect Hillary.
A more likely scenario is that in a panic, the Republicans will replace Trump with a less cartoonish nominee and that the GE will be as exciting as Tide vs. Ivory Snow (with a tip of the pen to Arundhati Roy on that one). In short, a corporate candidate against a corporate candidate.
The wild card on the Democratic side is obviously Bernie. Although I am a Bernie supporter, I think that once Hillary implodes completely, there will be a rush to replace her. Policy-wise, Biden is just Hillary in a suit and when Bernie supporters realize this (assuming they're consistent), they are no more likely to support him than they are to support her.
Enter Martin O'Malley, who is a bit of a cipher. His relatively unknown, outsider status is a drawback right now, but it will ultimately be a benefit, just as it was for the current President and for Jimmy Carter as well.
O'Malley is running as a progressive and thus will probably be a satisfactory replacement if it becomes clear to Bernie supporters that their guy isn't going to get the nomination. And there is no question that as Maryland Governor, O'Malley did a number of admirable and progressive things. What's not as well known outside of the Baltimore-Washington area is that in 2007 O'Malley co-wrote an article with DLC stalwart Harold Ford called "Our Chance to Capture the Center." In many ways, it was a Third Way manifesto:
Most Americans don't care much about partisan politics; they just want practical answers to the problems they face every day. So far, our leading presidential candidates seem to understand that the proof of the pudding is in the eating. That's why they have begun putting forward smart, New Democrat plans to cap and trade carbon emissions, give more Americans the chance to earn their way through college, achieve universal health care through shared responsibility, increase national security by rebuilding our embattled military and enable all Americans who work full time to lift themselves out of poverty.
In sum, my prediction is that Hillary will crash and burn, just as she did in 2008, and that Martin O'Malley will come out of the shadows and be our next President. I suspect that he will govern in much the same way that the current President has, by running as a progressive but ultimately by serving the interests of the corporate status quo when he takes office.
For those of us who are progressives all the time and not simply during primary season, our best bet is probably a Sanders vs. Trump GE. But getting there is fraught with peril.