Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why. [View all]

[riversedge]

Lots more analysis at link:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/09/17/bernie-sanderss-surge-doesnt-mean-the-democratic-race-is-wide-open-heres-why/


Bernie Sanders’s surge doesn’t mean the Democratic race is wide open. Here’s why.

By Michael Tesler September 17 at 11:00 AM

....................But now, Hillary Clinton’s current popularity with African Americans dramatically exceeds black support for Bernie Sanders. These data from daily surveys by Gallup in July and August, indicate that most black people are unfamiliar with Sanders and that he is not particularly popular among those that recognized his name.

So the challenge for Sanders is clear: a little knownsSenator, from an almost all-white state, who has been criticized by black activists for preaching a message of economic equality that ignores the historic and ongoing circumstances entangling race and class in the United States, somehow needs to galvanize minority support for his candidacy against an opponent who has been extremely popular with blacks and Latinos for over two decades.

Early wins by Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire are unlikely to change that, too. Gary Hart, whose 1984 candidacy is often compared to Sanders’s current campaign, could not translate his better-than-expected strong showing in the Iowa caucuses and resounding victory in the New Hampshire primary into a broader coalition beyond his white base. Nor could Barack Obama’s early-state momentum erode Hillary Clinton’s strong support from Latinos in the 2008 primary.

So until the polls show a substantial upswing in minority support for Sanders, any news story suggesting that “the Democratic race is wide open” is seriously overselling the Senator’s chances.