2016 Postmortem

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

39. Data from more than 4 or 5 months ago is meaningless.

Reply to kenn3d (Reply #34)

Fri Sep 18, 2015, 10:15 PM

Sep 2015

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Polls are beginning to turn Hillary's way. [View all] DCBob Sep 2015 OP

Wow, you managed to get it to show a slight short term improvement for Hillary jfern Sep 2015 #1

2007-2008 ?? DCBob Sep 2015 #3

call me crazy but I see a down trendline for Hillary in the latter half of sept dsc Sep 2015 #84

This message was self-deleted by its author Fawke Em Sep 2015 #99

That's what I see, too. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #101

I didn't leave out any polls. DCBob Sep 2015 #110

Not crazy but confused because the latter half of Sept and early Oct haven't occured yet. DCBob Sep 2015 #109

Thank you for posting this. I am still not sure why Biden is included as a matter of course. Persondem Sep 2015 #2

I really wish they would all drop Biden until he decides to run or not. DCBob Sep 2015 #4

Found the Pollster from 2007 jfern Sep 2015 #5

Do you not understand what happened in 2007-2008 is not relevant to the current situation?? DCBob Sep 2015 #7

Why not? jfern Sep 2015 #8

Must I explain it?? DCBob Sep 2015 #12

Almost anyone is inspiring compared to Hillary jfern Sep 2015 #14

She is inspiring to many.. DCBob Sep 2015 #16

Hillary lost almost half her support in NH jfern Sep 2015 #20

The latest poll shows she is starting to gain that back. DCBob Sep 2015 #23

She's only 31% there, compared to 68% in an earlier poll jfern Sep 2015 #24

The poll that preceded it was Sanders +7 DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #27

The pollster should figure out who is a likely Democratic primary voter jfern Sep 2015 #30

She is only 4 points back on that poll. DCBob Sep 2015 #28

Sounds like Sanders has about a 7 point lead jfern Sep 2015 #31

We shall see. DCBob Sep 2015 #32

Well, the last one did, but it's also has no statisticall difference from that 7 point lead jfern Sep 2015 #33

Can we all agree that CBS should have been embarrassed to release that dreck. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #49

Well +22 Sanders did drop a few jaws I think... even some of his supporters questioned that. kenn3d Sep 2015 #93

If I was accumulating polling data I would include it as to not poison my sample. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #100

I understand the scientific (statistical) concept of your argument. kenn3d Sep 2015 #106

Bernie is "uninspiring" record crowds... ReallyIAmAnOptimist Sep 2015 #58

Yes, Trump and Sanders have both tapped in the anti-establishment movement but.. DCBob Sep 2015 #71

Arenas are filled with the people who are uninspired by Bernie.. frylock Sep 2015 #61

Filling arenas is not necessarily indicative of political success. DCBob Sep 2015 #68

That's some hype for Ron Paul there. His largest crowd was on campus at UCLA, 7,000. Bluenorthwest Sep 2015 #73

Yes, yes. Ron Paul.. frylock Sep 2015 #96

Hillary is inspiring to Joe Turner Sep 2015 #108

Clinton is the hare in this race Scootaloo Sep 2015 #64

After what happened in 2008, I can assure you Hillary is definitely not taking anything for granted. DCBob Sep 2015 #67

Different people. Different year. treestar Sep 2015 #72

You're right pinebox Sep 2015 #79

It also coincides with Bernie having Cornel West campaign for him Cali_Democrat Sep 2015 #6

Yep, that could be part of it. DCBob Sep 2015 #9

Yes, it totally doomed him by having him drop 0.2 points in some tweaked average jfern Sep 2015 #11

How can it be bad if AAs weren't into Bernie anyway? nt artislife Sep 2015 #13

It's the same logic we saw from this type in 2014 Scootaloo Sep 2015 #65

You know...it did seem familiar. nt artislife Sep 2015 #81

Bernie's peaked again. Until his next peak. morningfog Sep 2015 #10

if you look closely at the polling trend line it indicates this started a couple of weeks ago. DCBob Sep 2015 #15

Sanders is up since 2 weeks ago jfern Sep 2015 #17

Not according to the Pollster graph.. DCBob Sep 2015 #25

If Sanders is gaining only 0.3 points in a totally cherry-picked 9 days, he's doing fine jfern Sep 2015 #37

Right.. good luck with that. DCBob Sep 2015 #40

Mostly from Biden jfern Sep 2015 #41

So what? DCBob Sep 2015 #43

Obama was stalled at 25% or less for all of 2007 jfern Sep 2015 #44

Here we go with Obama again. DCBob Sep 2015 #46

When Hillary loses again, we'll see who never learns jfern Sep 2015 #47

That is unlikely. DCBob Sep 2015 #48

You may think it's unlikely, but it is feasible... Pope Sweet Jesus Sep 2015 #59

Interesting how that graph doesn't look at all like the one at RCP HereSince1628 Sep 2015 #74

Because the poster created a custom chart. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #102

Interesting...well HereSince1628 Sep 2015 #107

I have seen "smoothing" mentioned several times. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #18

The trend line smoothing option hides some of detail. DCBob Sep 2015 #21

We'll see. morningfog Sep 2015 #19

Wow, you are calling NV and SC for Senator Sanders. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #26

Doh! No I am not (yet!). I meant Feb 20. morningfog Sep 2015 #56

Take Biden out and it's more dramatic Renew Deal Sep 2015 #22

It would be very interesting to see data without Biden. DCBob Sep 2015 #29

Morning Consult and PPP is sans Biden DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #35

Yeah, that's about what I would expect. DCBob Sep 2015 #36

Yeah... customizing the composite charts is cool fun. kenn3d Sep 2015 #34

Data from more than 4 or 5 months ago is meaningless. DCBob Sep 2015 #39

It's also sloppy social science to willy nilly ignore polls you made the subjective determination... DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #42

I think you meant this for somebody else. DCBob Sep 2015 #45

Yes DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #50

Yep. That's a better way to handle it. DCBob Sep 2015 #52

Wang got up to 97% , 98% accuracy... Nate nailed everything in 012. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #54

Ok... I'm sure no social science expert. kenn3d Sep 2015 #57

The problem is when you start cherry picking polls you are introducing bias into your averages. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #62

So just look at the last 5 weeks. progressoid Sep 2015 #51

Yes, but the last two weeks though are looking better. DCBob Sep 2015 #53

When you condense the date range to two weeks out of a 6 month campaign . . . you are pretty Ed Suspicious Sep 2015 #80

Which pollsters were including Biden in March? OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #88

Nearly all of the pollsters found in the HuffPollster charts kenn3d Sep 2015 #92

Thanks. OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #94

As time passes and more information comes out on the candidates stand on the issues it will become Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #38

Well vadermike Sep 2015 #55

More national polls.. frylock Sep 2015 #60

The latest primary poll I am aware of also shows Hillary gaining back. DCBob Sep 2015 #70

anything to salvage the political equivalent of a "participation medal" MisterP Sep 2015 #63

ah, so the undemocratic practice of having no debates, and having a super PAC launch liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #66

I think it's more that the fake email scandal has run its course. DCBob Sep 2015 #69

The AHA moment is fast approaching Skwmom Sep 2015 #75

Is this the DrudgeReport headlines?? DCBob Sep 2015 #76

Well... OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #90

Hogwash. 99Forever Sep 2015 #77

BoarBathing. DCBob Sep 2015 #78

I "get" the concept... 99Forever Sep 2015 #82

trolling?? DCBob Sep 2015 #83

It is what it is. 99Forever Sep 2015 #86

you have no idea. DCBob Sep 2015 #89

Of course I don't. 99Forever Sep 2015 #91

Too little, too late Tom Rinaldo Sep 2015 #85

the one-day "trend" (pretend-trend?) has already reversed since Huffpost updated their chart from . magical thyme Sep 2015 #98

Until she takes a hard stance AgingAmerican Sep 2015 #87

Awesome! workinclasszero Sep 2015 #95

odd....I see them at 45:26 today. also, if you're going to use the term "flatlining" you may want to magical thyme Sep 2015 #97

Just wait till after the first debate dorkzilla Sep 2015 #103

also another round of Beghazi hearings. magical thyme Sep 2015 #104

Here's to hoping this is more propaganda bullshit Android3.14 Sep 2015 #105

LOL, now it's not so good for Hillary jfern Sep 2015 #111

Looking good to me.. DCBob Sep 2015 #112