2016 Postmortem

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

68. Filling arenas is not necessarily indicative of political success.

Sat Sep 19, 2015, 07:54 AM

Sep 2015

Don't forget the Ron Paul phenomenon in 2008 and 2012. His supporters packed arenas and were the most aggressive and dedicated out there but in the end it was just a footnote in the political history books.

I see Bernie ending up much the same way.

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Polls are beginning to turn Hillary's way. [View all] DCBob Sep 2015 OP

Wow, you managed to get it to show a slight short term improvement for Hillary jfern Sep 2015 #1

2007-2008 ?? DCBob Sep 2015 #3

call me crazy but I see a down trendline for Hillary in the latter half of sept dsc Sep 2015 #84

This message was self-deleted by its author Fawke Em Sep 2015 #99

That's what I see, too. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #101

I didn't leave out any polls. DCBob Sep 2015 #110

Not crazy but confused because the latter half of Sept and early Oct haven't occured yet. DCBob Sep 2015 #109

Thank you for posting this. I am still not sure why Biden is included as a matter of course. Persondem Sep 2015 #2

I really wish they would all drop Biden until he decides to run or not. DCBob Sep 2015 #4

Found the Pollster from 2007 jfern Sep 2015 #5

Do you not understand what happened in 2007-2008 is not relevant to the current situation?? DCBob Sep 2015 #7

Why not? jfern Sep 2015 #8

Must I explain it?? DCBob Sep 2015 #12

Almost anyone is inspiring compared to Hillary jfern Sep 2015 #14

She is inspiring to many.. DCBob Sep 2015 #16

Hillary lost almost half her support in NH jfern Sep 2015 #20

The latest poll shows she is starting to gain that back. DCBob Sep 2015 #23

She's only 31% there, compared to 68% in an earlier poll jfern Sep 2015 #24

The poll that preceded it was Sanders +7 DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #27

The pollster should figure out who is a likely Democratic primary voter jfern Sep 2015 #30

She is only 4 points back on that poll. DCBob Sep 2015 #28

Sounds like Sanders has about a 7 point lead jfern Sep 2015 #31

We shall see. DCBob Sep 2015 #32

Well, the last one did, but it's also has no statisticall difference from that 7 point lead jfern Sep 2015 #33

Can we all agree that CBS should have been embarrassed to release that dreck. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #49

Well +22 Sanders did drop a few jaws I think... even some of his supporters questioned that. kenn3d Sep 2015 #93

If I was accumulating polling data I would include it as to not poison my sample. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #100

I understand the scientific (statistical) concept of your argument. kenn3d Sep 2015 #106

Bernie is "uninspiring" record crowds... ReallyIAmAnOptimist Sep 2015 #58

Yes, Trump and Sanders have both tapped in the anti-establishment movement but.. DCBob Sep 2015 #71

Arenas are filled with the people who are uninspired by Bernie.. frylock Sep 2015 #61

Filling arenas is not necessarily indicative of political success. DCBob Sep 2015 #68

That's some hype for Ron Paul there. His largest crowd was on campus at UCLA, 7,000. Bluenorthwest Sep 2015 #73

Yes, yes. Ron Paul.. frylock Sep 2015 #96

Hillary is inspiring to Joe Turner Sep 2015 #108

Clinton is the hare in this race Scootaloo Sep 2015 #64

After what happened in 2008, I can assure you Hillary is definitely not taking anything for granted. DCBob Sep 2015 #67

Different people. Different year. treestar Sep 2015 #72

You're right pinebox Sep 2015 #79

It also coincides with Bernie having Cornel West campaign for him Cali_Democrat Sep 2015 #6

Yep, that could be part of it. DCBob Sep 2015 #9

Yes, it totally doomed him by having him drop 0.2 points in some tweaked average jfern Sep 2015 #11

How can it be bad if AAs weren't into Bernie anyway? nt artislife Sep 2015 #13

It's the same logic we saw from this type in 2014 Scootaloo Sep 2015 #65

You know...it did seem familiar. nt artislife Sep 2015 #81

Bernie's peaked again. Until his next peak. morningfog Sep 2015 #10

if you look closely at the polling trend line it indicates this started a couple of weeks ago. DCBob Sep 2015 #15

Sanders is up since 2 weeks ago jfern Sep 2015 #17

Not according to the Pollster graph.. DCBob Sep 2015 #25

If Sanders is gaining only 0.3 points in a totally cherry-picked 9 days, he's doing fine jfern Sep 2015 #37

Right.. good luck with that. DCBob Sep 2015 #40

Mostly from Biden jfern Sep 2015 #41

So what? DCBob Sep 2015 #43

Obama was stalled at 25% or less for all of 2007 jfern Sep 2015 #44

Here we go with Obama again. DCBob Sep 2015 #46

When Hillary loses again, we'll see who never learns jfern Sep 2015 #47

That is unlikely. DCBob Sep 2015 #48

You may think it's unlikely, but it is feasible... Pope Sweet Jesus Sep 2015 #59

Interesting how that graph doesn't look at all like the one at RCP HereSince1628 Sep 2015 #74

Because the poster created a custom chart. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #102

Interesting...well HereSince1628 Sep 2015 #107

I have seen "smoothing" mentioned several times. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #18

The trend line smoothing option hides some of detail. DCBob Sep 2015 #21

We'll see. morningfog Sep 2015 #19

Wow, you are calling NV and SC for Senator Sanders. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #26

Doh! No I am not (yet!). I meant Feb 20. morningfog Sep 2015 #56

Take Biden out and it's more dramatic Renew Deal Sep 2015 #22

It would be very interesting to see data without Biden. DCBob Sep 2015 #29

Morning Consult and PPP is sans Biden DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #35

Yeah, that's about what I would expect. DCBob Sep 2015 #36

Yeah... customizing the composite charts is cool fun. kenn3d Sep 2015 #34

Data from more than 4 or 5 months ago is meaningless. DCBob Sep 2015 #39

It's also sloppy social science to willy nilly ignore polls you made the subjective determination... DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #42

I think you meant this for somebody else. DCBob Sep 2015 #45

Yes DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #50

Yep. That's a better way to handle it. DCBob Sep 2015 #52

Wang got up to 97% , 98% accuracy... Nate nailed everything in 012. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #54

Ok... I'm sure no social science expert. kenn3d Sep 2015 #57

The problem is when you start cherry picking polls you are introducing bias into your averages. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #62

So just look at the last 5 weeks. progressoid Sep 2015 #51

Yes, but the last two weeks though are looking better. DCBob Sep 2015 #53

When you condense the date range to two weeks out of a 6 month campaign . . . you are pretty Ed Suspicious Sep 2015 #80

Which pollsters were including Biden in March? OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #88

Nearly all of the pollsters found in the HuffPollster charts kenn3d Sep 2015 #92

Thanks. OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #94

As time passes and more information comes out on the candidates stand on the issues it will become Thinkingabout Sep 2015 #38

Well vadermike Sep 2015 #55

More national polls.. frylock Sep 2015 #60

The latest primary poll I am aware of also shows Hillary gaining back. DCBob Sep 2015 #70

anything to salvage the political equivalent of a "participation medal" MisterP Sep 2015 #63

ah, so the undemocratic practice of having no debates, and having a super PAC launch liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #66

I think it's more that the fake email scandal has run its course. DCBob Sep 2015 #69

The AHA moment is fast approaching Skwmom Sep 2015 #75

Is this the DrudgeReport headlines?? DCBob Sep 2015 #76

Well... OilemFirchen Sep 2015 #90

Hogwash. 99Forever Sep 2015 #77

BoarBathing. DCBob Sep 2015 #78

I "get" the concept... 99Forever Sep 2015 #82

trolling?? DCBob Sep 2015 #83

It is what it is. 99Forever Sep 2015 #86

you have no idea. DCBob Sep 2015 #89

Of course I don't. 99Forever Sep 2015 #91

Too little, too late Tom Rinaldo Sep 2015 #85

the one-day "trend" (pretend-trend?) has already reversed since Huffpost updated their chart from . magical thyme Sep 2015 #98

Until she takes a hard stance AgingAmerican Sep 2015 #87

Awesome! workinclasszero Sep 2015 #95

odd....I see them at 45:26 today. also, if you're going to use the term "flatlining" you may want to magical thyme Sep 2015 #97

Just wait till after the first debate dorkzilla Sep 2015 #103

also another round of Beghazi hearings. magical thyme Sep 2015 #104

Here's to hoping this is more propaganda bullshit Android3.14 Sep 2015 #105

LOL, now it's not so good for Hillary jfern Sep 2015 #111

Looking good to me.. DCBob Sep 2015 #112