2016 Postmortem

Tierra_y_Libertad

(50,414 posts)

1. I hope Bernie gets the nomination and we get to find out if Lichtman's right.

Reply to bigdarryl (Original post)

Sun Sep 20, 2015, 02:00 PM

Sep 2015

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

90 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Allan Lichtman:If Bernie Sanders secures the nomination it's bad news for the Democrats [View all] bigdarryl Sep 2015 OP

I hope Bernie gets the nomination and we get to find out if Lichtman's right. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #1

Trust me he is right the only way we win in that senerio is bigdarryl Sep 2015 #4

Trust you? Or we'll "loose"? Ok. DisgustipatedinCA Sep 2015 #15

Here we go again. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #62

bwahaha. no. cali Sep 2015 #23

You can't loose but you can lose. JRLeft Sep 2015 #26

Trust YOU? 99Forever Sep 2015 #40

I'd rather trust the people than a random guy I've never heard of Pope Sweet Jesus Sep 2015 #53

Sheesh, people -- that is one guy's opinion (Big Darrel's) gateley Sep 2015 #77

oh no! another "bernie can't deliver" opinion piece! restorefreedom Sep 2015 #2

Yep, they're going to keep singing that song until the convention. reformist2 Sep 2015 #27

^^ this nt artislife Sep 2015 #60

We don't select Presidents by Turning over Key Leaves, Tea Leaves, or the Lady of the Lake. sorechasm Sep 2015 #78

No it's not. LWolf Sep 2015 #3

How do you explain his 100 percent prediction since 1980? yeoman6987 Sep 2015 #5

I don't explain anything about Lichtman, but LWolf Sep 2015 #7

Great points in follow up. Thanks! yeoman6987 Sep 2015 #8

I'm sure Lichtman is redoubtable, but the people are restless Hortensis Sep 2015 #83

He's a historian on the Presidents on there past performances bigdarryl Sep 2015 #13

he's hardly singular in that. cali Sep 2015 #24

Times are different marlakay Sep 2015 #31

Your observation about Trump and Bernie's funding is so interesting! reformist2 Sep 2015 #43

You should read his key system because what your talking about doesn't matter bigdarryl Sep 2015 #6

I think that's exactly what I was referring to. LWolf Sep 2015 #10

very well said. restorefreedom Sep 2015 #34

I love how you come up with your predictions redstateblues Sep 2015 #65

You are partially correct LWolf Sep 2015 #85

of course he didn't mention if Hillary were to be nominated, did he? highprincipleswork Sep 2015 #9

So is he saying Hillary is better? DCBob Sep 2015 #11

the key stuff is just bizarre bull. cali Sep 2015 #19

I disagree. If Bernie Sanders can muster enough support MineralMan Sep 2015 #12

It's about the delegates a candidate has to secure bigdarryl Sep 2015 #17

I have no idea about "keys." MineralMan Sep 2015 #20

Allan came up with a "model" that uses 13 or so "keys" to getting the nomination. reformist2 Sep 2015 #38

Holy shit you're right. I better switch my vote right away. You have shown me the light. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #14

Hillary would also be in trouble, John Poet Sep 2015 #16

Yep its like for instance 1968 during the democratic party convention bigdarryl Sep 2015 #21

. merrily Sep 2015 #30

McGovern was not the nominee in '68 Roy Ellefson Sep 2015 #42

The only thing that matters is coming to the conclusion that Hillary must be the nominee. merrily Sep 2015 #70

yep Roy Ellefson Sep 2015 #87

wow. what a load of shit. he says that a third party challenge against the dems cali Sep 2015 #18

i can't improve on this. nt restorefreedom Sep 2015 #35

. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #22

! merrily Sep 2015 #29

lo freakin l! nt restorefreedom Sep 2015 #36

! Pope Sweet Jesus Sep 2015 #55

Sorry,but I think that there is sadoldgirl Sep 2015 #25

Social unrest is riots in the streets like in the 1960,s bigdarryl Sep 2015 #32

He needs to get with the times. Today social unrest means social media. liberal_at_heart Sep 2015 #33

Terrific that you are willing to learn from your daughter artislife Sep 2015 #63

Bernie has a much better chance of winning the general than does Hillary. merrily Sep 2015 #28

way better. but shhhh its a secret......nt restorefreedom Sep 2015 #37

I don't know why it's a secret. I've been posting it for months. merrily Sep 2015 #47

willful ignorance. nt restorefreedom Sep 2015 #48

Ah, I always forget about that one, given that I am always struggling for more info. merrily Sep 2015 #49

LT ...a wise woman. nt restorefreedom Sep 2015 #50

And gifted and funny. I adore her. merrily Sep 2015 #51

beltway conventional wisdom experts say no, the all powerful values voter will determine who wins Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #68

In politics, merrily Sep 2015 #69

I'm not what you'd call much of a joiner, but yes. I am supporting Sen. Sanders for the nomination, Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #72

You're welcome. Happy to be on the same side. merrily Sep 2015 #75

EVERYONE has a perfect record predicting presidential races... cherokeeprogressive Sep 2015 #39

That's why if you come up with a "system," people think you have an edge, lol. reformist2 Sep 2015 #66

This is a very different election Rosa Luxemburg Sep 2015 #41

they say that just about every election cycle unblock Sep 2015 #59

Lichtman is an interesting scholar Gothmog Sep 2015 #44

Yes Rosa Luxemburg Sep 2015 #46

His key system is a joke jfern Sep 2015 #45

When you come up with a "model", no matter how hokey, you gain credibility. ;) reformist2 Sep 2015 #52

his model isn't designed to determine closeness. unblock Sep 2015 #61

If it was any good, it would be close for the close calls jfern Sep 2015 #64

that may be your intuition, but it simply doesn't apply to this sort of model. unblock Sep 2015 #79

The incumbent advantage is huge, so the 8 key bit is very conservative. merrily Sep 2015 #73

U need someone to tell u a socialist cant win any southern or midwestern states? GusFring Sep 2015 #54

That's neither common nor knowledge. merrily Sep 2015 #71

Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama. You guys are going to mess around GusFring Sep 2015 #80

Neither is Hillary. And? merrily Sep 2015 #82

Obama ALREADY has TWO major foreign policy wins: Iran and Cuba. Especially Iran. RBInMaine Sep 2015 #56

Yeah that's the only thing I disagree with Lichtman on bigdarryl Sep 2015 #84

Sanders will not mount a third party challenge. He will support the Dem nominee. RBInMaine Sep 2015 #57

the basic idea is if the country is in a mood for a change, the white house switches parties. unblock Sep 2015 #58

well if Allan Lichtman says so, I guess that means now we know how Allan Lichtman feels about it. Warren DeMontague Sep 2015 #67

Political scientist, extraordinaire, whose unquestioned model shall go unquestioned. reformist2 Sep 2015 #74

Was he saying Bernie would be gone in a week and Trump wouldn't last gateley Sep 2015 #76

Sanders would do well in the general HassleCat Sep 2015 #81

Bad keys? GeorgeGist Sep 2015 #86

I disagree with him on key 7 in fact I'm goting to e-mail him as to why he's not giving that key to bigdarryl Sep 2015 #88

Interesting emsimon33 Sep 2015 #89

I'll match my socialist against their psychopath any day of the week. Next. DisgustipatedinCA Sep 2015 #90