Nate Silver; "Ohio polls show trouble for Romney" downgrades Romney chance to 31% [View all]

[grantcart]

We are seeing the first major shift in the campaign. The significance of this is big because all pollsters have, so far, noted how static the race has become and the likelihood of a big swing back is not great as so few people are undecided.

Here is Silver on Ohio (the whole article is useful, he shows that Romney has almost no chance to win the electoral college without Ohio)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/july-27-ohio-polls-show-trouble-for-romney/


Nowhere was this more apparent than in Ohio, where there were two new polls out on Friday. One of them, from the firm We Ask America, gave Mr. Obama an eight-point lead there. Another, from Magellan Strategies, put Mr. Obama up by two points.

Now Drunken Irishman brings us news of yet another poll (Quinnipac Obama + 6) that shows similar results for Ohio:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/125162820#post20

This would seem to indicate that the outsourcing and outbanking ads are having a huge impact in Ohio.

Note that Nate Silver has downgraded Romney's chances of winning the electoral college to 31%.

There is no reasonable path to an electoral college victory for Romney without Ohio. Portman is the only VP pick that helps in Ohio, so Portman's chances of being on the ticket just went up.

Romney's chances on Intrade have gone below 40 %

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/