2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Republicans afraid of running against Bernie, want Hillary instead. [View all]Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)You write, "They are salivating at the thought of running against him in the general." I'm guessing that some of them are. In 1980, many of us (I plead guilty here) were salivating at the thought of running against Reagan in the general. Obviously, someone so extreme would be an easy opponent.
The moral of the story is that the opposing party's saliva is not a reliable election predictor.
As to what the Republicans really think -- it's probably a mix. Right now they're attacking Clinton because they see her as the most likely nominee, and I agree with that assessment. Are they leaving Chafee-O'Malley-Webb alone because they think one of them would tank in the general? No, they're leaving them alone because they think an attack would be a waste of time.
If I were a Republican strategist, my thinking about the two Democratic front-runners would be:
* If Clinton runs, we'll have the advantage of Clinton fatigue, especially if we don't run Bush. We'll also have a great GOTV aid; we've been demonizing her for so long that our base will be sure to turn out to vote against her. We'll also pick up some misogynists. We'll have the problem of women turning out to break that last big glass ceiling.
* If Sanders runs, we'll have the advantage of painting him as an extremist. We'll say that about Clinton, too, but it will be easier against Sanders, and we'll get more help from the corporate media. Nobody in America will be able to go a day without hearing or reading the words "Sanders" and "socialist" in the same sentence. We'll also pick up some anti-Semites. We'll have the problem of previously apathetic non-voters (especially younger people) turning out because their perception is that, for the first time, there's a major-party candidate who represents significant change.
I'm guessing that different Republican strategists would weigh these competing considerations differently. Having reached their different conclusions about whom they'd rather oppose, they would then also reach different conclusions about tactics; should they dissemble about their preference, or try to fake the Democrats out by (for once) telling the truth?
My bottom line is that what Republicans say on this subject is pretty much worthless.