2016 Postmortem

Response to Godhumor (Reply #127)

jfern This message was self-deleted by its author.

Edit history

Cannot view edit history for self-deleted messages.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

166 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Hillary Clinton�s support among Blacks plunges in a new poll [View all] Catherina Oct 2015 OP

"One poll. Large margin of error." That's all that needs to be said, for now at least. Metric System Oct 2015 #1

and..."if it turns out to be predictive, it could significantly shift the Democratic contest" George II Oct 2015 #32

So few people were actually polled, it's laughable that someone even wrote an article based on this Metric System Oct 2015 #34

And you won't hear this reported: George II Oct 2015 #42

Honestly, I've never seen the media influence a primary like this one. Metric System Oct 2015 #67

I actually don't think they've influenced it all that much, but they sure have TRIED to do so. George II Oct 2015 #94

Not in 2000? demwing Oct 2015 #96

Yeah, after I posted I questioned myself. We've seen similar behavior before. It just feels like Metric System Oct 2015 #97

I felt that way about Dean demwing Oct 2015 #106

You're using poll data to discredit the use of poll data? Fearless Oct 2015 #163

Only 1000! LOL 6chars Oct 2015 #65

The concept of random sampling may not be intuitive, but it can be interesting senz Oct 2015 #114

Thanks for the great link 6chars Oct 2015 #122

Glad you like it. senz Oct 2015 #125

that's about the same size as most of the polls being watched... magical thyme Oct 2015 #147

Bernie never had a problem with AAs but it was interesting watching White people here tell them what sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #79

thank GAWD for Corey Booker for telling the truth JI7 Oct 2015 #87

Yes, thank the gods for anyone who tells the truth, and when they don't, say so. Did you have a sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #93

I was sad to see AAs influenced by the toxicity in certain parts around here -- senz Oct 2015 #123

Well, from what I see, very few AAs have been influenced by that smear campaign. And few appreciate sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #134

+1000000000 Art_from_Ark Oct 2015 #140

If we were to believe this poll Bernie is in trouble as well Tommy2Tone Oct 2015 #155

LOL! Now, using "if" in a discussion about future events is wrong? OMG. merrily Oct 2015 #142

I read it from my feed from The Root on FB artislife Oct 2015 #107

I love the desperation! Nt Logical Oct 2015 #160

I could see that trend just on social media. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #2

Same here. Snowballing too. Delightfully so n/t Catherina Oct 2015 #7

Yes, I noticed it also, but then I never bought the smear campaign, considering where it started. sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #98

This is why I don't want Bernie-haters to change a single thing in their approach Catherina Oct 2015 #131

I know, they don't understand that smear campaigns that used to work in the past, mainly sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #148

If anything, I'd like them to pump up the volume Catherina Oct 2015 #150

That has already started, the anti-semitic attacks. By two of Hillary's surrogates. But you're right sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #153

HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!! WillyT Oct 2015 #3

As facts are gathered, intelligent people adapt, and rearrange accordingly. nt Zorra Oct 2015 #4

Yep - it's the small-scale version of the scientific method. hifiguy Oct 2015 #78

its the blueprint of concious existence reddread Oct 2015 #83

Hardly. hifiguy Oct 2015 #85

faith takes many forms reddread Oct 2015 #91

BIG Kick and Rec. - This is incredibly awesomely stellar. Thanks for this OP 99th_Monkey Oct 2015 #5

The better people know about Sanders, the more his numbers rise. HooptieWagon Oct 2015 #6

Yep. It's as simple as that. Latinos too. azmom Oct 2015 #66

Yes, there are a lot of Latino groups for Bernie, too nt artislife Oct 2015 #109

Sounds like the word is getting out! arcane1 Oct 2015 #8

That was the only 'problem' he ever had with minorities, AND whites too btw, no one knew who he was. sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #136

Can't hold back the trend; it was just a matter of time. k&r <nt> AtomicKitten Oct 2015 #9

hear, hear, atomickitten. by the way, my girl Queen could take your name she's roguevalley Oct 2015 #17

ahhhh new baby in the house! AtomicKitten Oct 2015 #22

8.5 margin of error JI7 Oct 2015 #10

So give the entire "margin of error" to Hillary... John Poet Oct 2015 #47

Nooo, 9% moe isn't even worth reporting... very skewed, this is bad journalism uponit7771 Oct 2015 #52

A 9% drop in a Presidential poll is not worth reporting? Where is that written? merrily Oct 2015 #143

A 9% moe, it's very unreliable uponit7771 Oct 2015 #161

So, it's written nowhere; the margin of error was already factored out--and all in Hillary's favor; merrily Oct 2015 #166

The professional leftists are at it again. Dawson Leery Oct 2015 #77

True Tommy2Tone Oct 2015 #156

Yep, big MoE...but it is useful in one respect... tex-wyo-dem Oct 2015 #152

Kicked and recommended. Uncle Joe Oct 2015 #11

It's all about the trend. 99Forever Oct 2015 #12

What happened to the meme aspirant Oct 2015 #13

It's one poll with a large MOE. I think both sides need to chill. Metric System Oct 2015 #14

"Large Margin of Error" Aerows Oct 2015 #99

Are you arguing that a large MOE isn't something to take into consideration? Metric System Oct 2015 #101

Standard deviation is also something to take into consideration. Aerows Oct 2015 #102

Those attempting to smear Sanders whose record on Civil Rights is exemplary, with race baiting sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #158

Oh you mean that *selfless*, *helpful* advice from that other camp Catherina Oct 2015 #15

+1 Ed Suspicious Oct 2015 #41

But there's one white guy in the pic! d_legendary1 Oct 2015 #70

That is priceless. hifiguy Oct 2015 #88

It was bound to happen. xynthee Oct 2015 #16

NO, it's not surprising to anyone paying attention Demeter Oct 2015 #18

Oh yeah. Not at all surprising. Straight from Netaaaa's mouth today Catherina Oct 2015 #44

A total of 98 were polled. Godhumor Oct 2015 #19

so more picked Biden than Sanders ? JI7 Oct 2015 #23

Famous name vs. newcomer senz Oct 2015 #38

Bernies been around for 30 years and the polls get skewed with such small sampling and large MOE uponit7771 Oct 2015 #56

Quietly working for his constituents, not seeking power, fame, and money. senz Oct 2015 #62

I don't know the senators from Rhode Island artislife Oct 2015 #121

More people were UNDECIDED than picked Sanders. But lets all celebrate anyway!!! Number23 Oct 2015 #84

Here too, include Biden to dilute Hillary's numbers upaloopa Oct 2015 #27

Yeah, Hillary's getting worried about Biden, isn't she? senz Oct 2015 #37

Who knows? Some reporter writes that and upaloopa Oct 2015 #48

Yeah, "news" is so pass�, nobody reads it anymore... senz Oct 2015 #57

It's not news you know that upaloopa Oct 2015 #86

It's not an opinion piece: it's news. A report on current events. Reputable source. senz Oct 2015 #108

It's politically motivated to hurt upaloopa Oct 2015 #116

I don't think that's clear from anything in the report. senz Oct 2015 #118

Hell, the republicans are at least honest enough to say they're out to get her on TV the media uponit7771 Oct 2015 #55

Hillary is losing on the ISSUES and her record on the ISSUES, period. You can call Democrats 'right sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #89

This is not true given the facts of the last couple of days, her poll numbers are excellent seeing.. uponit7771 Oct 2015 #111

She has steadily trended downwards and she is losing key demographics, women eg. I'm talking about sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #115

You're going to have to source the Utah and WV claims Godhumor Oct 2015 #127

This message was self-deleted by its author jfern Oct 2015 #137

HA! Metric System Oct 2015 #29

So will you be laughing when he enters the race? senz Oct 2015 #40

Huh? My laughter has nothing to do with Biden! It's about so few people being polled. Metric System Oct 2015 #53

wow!!! WTF!?!! they need 10 times that much for a reasonable sample. This is bad journalism uponit7771 Oct 2015 #54

But as this thread proves, there are certain folks willing to eat this tripe up with a knife and Number23 Oct 2015 #81

Yeap, and this poll is with Biden in which would split black votes uponit7771 Oct 2015 #113

Yep. It's an interesting poll but even the article took great pains to note the margin of error Number23 Oct 2015 #124

But I first saw this poll on FB artislife Oct 2015 #112

k/r 840high Oct 2015 #20

Thanks 1norcal Oct 2015 #21

Uh Huh, ok, right, got it. Darb Oct 2015 #24

Every time she appears in public her poll numbers drop for some reason. Cheese Sandwich Oct 2015 #25

Or it's, you know, the large MOE. Metric System Oct 2015 #31

You know that MOE is plus or minus don't you? It could also very well be worse for Hillary. A Simple Game Oct 2015 #82

I guess we'll know if other polls show similar results. Metric System Oct 2015 #92

Yup, just like after the first poll showed Bernie ahead in New Hampshire. n/t A Simple Game Oct 2015 #104

But what about... AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #135

Geez.... AlbertCat Oct 2015 #26

But, again, the inclusion of Biden undermines the viability... blackspade Oct 2015 #28

So glad to hear this! Good news for Blacks and all who are not in the 1%. senz Oct 2015 #30

even if this poll was accurate it shows that Biden is gaining black voters JI7 Oct 2015 #33

If Bernie keeps making himself known and visible nyabingi Oct 2015 #35

Funny thing is I got the news from a Hillary Clinton news feed lol Catherina Oct 2015 #45

Looks like Biden is the real winner WI_DEM Oct 2015 #36

It's a crappy poll from a crappy polling organization. Go beyond the spoon-fed media bits... George II Oct 2015 #39

Chaffetz-quality graphs? "Plunging" wants it's definition back! Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #43

Wile This Is A Very, Very Early & Low Count ChiciB1 Oct 2015 #46

bad poll, margin of error too large, questions slanted.. ibegurpard Oct 2015 #49

98 people were polled, that's not even a reportable sample and the MOE was 9%... this is not only a uponit7771 Oct 2015 #60

OK ibegurpard Oct 2015 #63

Hah! +1000 n/t Catherina Oct 2015 #75

Why report a poll with 8.5 moe !?!?!? What was the point? tia uponit7771 Oct 2015 #50

Wait a minute here.... INdemo Oct 2015 #51

98 people polled, small AA sample and a 9% moe, this poll isn't even worth reporting. It's bad ... uponit7771 Oct 2015 #59

The "journalist" didn't want to let facts get in the way of his story. Metric System Oct 2015 #61

The AA sample was the 98 people, the 9%MOE is for the AA estimate 6chars Oct 2015 #71

I questioned a poll with only 229 samplings INdemo Oct 2015 #139

Cause there are enough polls with 4 times that much sampling saying the same thing. If there were uponit7771 Oct 2015 #162

Here's how it goes... Fearless Oct 2015 #165

Nate Silvers, lol. He's being paid not to change his tune until forced to Catherina Oct 2015 #73

All races are figuring out who represents the people Android3.14 Oct 2015 #58

Native Americans are also trending to Sanders Mabus Oct 2015 #64

that can't be true! ibegurpard Oct 2015 #69

No Mabus Oct 2015 #76

It's a great sign. People are done with establishment politics Catherina Oct 2015 #74

True dat Mabus Oct 2015 #80

That is the one and only obvious thing to be taken away from this hifiguy Oct 2015 #95

Status quo oozes from every pore of her being. azmom Oct 2015 #100

Just wait until the rest of the shoes drop later this October... Obama related ones tomm2thumbs Oct 2015 #68

It's just the tip of the Sanderstorm. SoapBox Oct 2015 #72

The future's so bright! Catherina Oct 2015 #130

The sample size of Black Dems polled puts the MoE north of 10% Persondem Oct 2015 #90

I don't need polls, I've been on minority blogs for years, and following the Ferguson protesters sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #117

Your experience informs your reality, as it should be. But using a poll of 100 Persondem Oct 2015 #120

Valid poll. Suffolk U. & USA Today. Nothing wrong with the methodology. senz Oct 2015 #103

This poll does not appear, to me, to distinguish between black and white voters. Baltimore18 Oct 2015 #105

You're looking at the questionaire. senz Oct 2015 #110

I see it now. Thanks for your help. Baltimore18 Oct 2015 #119

No problem. senz Oct 2015 #126

African Americans have been very adamant about how the candidates can't take them for granted Scootaloo Oct 2015 #128

Oh yeah. "sadly for her, we ARE smart enough to figure out Bernie Sanders is better" Catherina Oct 2015 #129

:) My FB friend Vcubed telling it like it is. nt nc4bo Oct 2015 #132

She's awesome. I have much admiration for her n/t Catherina Oct 2015 #133

k&r n/t Nedsdag Oct 2015 #149

I can't wait til the debates start AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #138

It's only a matter of time... MannyGoldstein Oct 2015 #141

The ugly Clinton lies about Bernie will not stand, and will back-fire 99th_Monkey Oct 2015 #146

You're welcome Manny Catherina Oct 2015 #151

There's a saying among statisticians NuclearDem Oct 2015 #144

Recommend! KoKo Oct 2015 #145

The poll is garbage Tommy2Tone Oct 2015 #154

K&R NealK Oct 2015 #157

Anyone relying on this poll for trend analysis should note this parenthetical: OilemFirchen Oct 2015 #159

This is good info.... thx uponit7771 Oct 2015 #164