2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Michael Tomasky on the (Possible) Coming Obama Landslide [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It's possible, I guess, but looking at closing times and electoral-rich states, my guess is that Obama holds the lead throughout much of the night - running up his score in reliably blue states that are electorally rich. Other states that will inevitably go Romney, won't go right off the bat - states like Georgia, South Carolina, Texas and maybe Tennessee (believe it or not). That will keep Romney's totals down similar to '08.
When we roll out west, I anticipate Arizona and Montana to be too close, or too early, to call at closing. So, my guess is that Obama leads 200-140 or something like that when the polls close in the West Coast. Could be more if Ohio really does break heavily for Obama (remember, it was called an hour or so before polls closed in California and if his margin is as big, or bigger, they'll call it again).