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2016 Postmortem

Baitball Blogger

(51,629 posts)

30. Well, there's the problem. The numbers from the polls are the result of a process

Reply to HerbChestnut (Reply #28)

Sat Oct 17, 2015, 11:03 AM

Oct 2015

that is easier for the pollster. In other words, they do not accurately portray what is really going on. If I were a candidate running for office, would I allow this gazpacho approach to frame my political viability? No. I would not.

What I would do is look to the states with a heavy Indie population that have CLOSED primaries. I would poll those Indies directly to determine their passion for the candidate. And then, if their numbers are considerable, I would begin a marketing strategy to convince them to switch parties, just to vote in the primaries.

Here, I'll throw a state in that probably fits the description: Florida.

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Highlight:

Sanders won 44%-29% in a poll of people who actually watched the debate [View all] Bernblu Oct 2015 OP

When We Stand Together - No Citizen Need Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go cantbeserious Oct 2015 #1

Finally results based on actual facts. ZM90 Oct 2015 #2

Well, what matters is how people vote in their primaries. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Oct 2015 #13

K&R! marym625 Oct 2015 #3

I think this was not limited to registered Democrats. DCBob Oct 2015 #4

Independent is a huge category now. cprise Oct 2015 #7

Well normally respondents are restricted to registered Democrats.. DCBob Oct 2015 #10

Not true. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #19

Do you have any proof of that? DCBob Oct 2015 #21

Yeah just look at the internals of polls. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #22

I have.. I still dont think most include Independents. DCBob Oct 2015 #24

Yeah, this poll doesn't seem very good. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #25

I think I know why the polls are only concerened with registered Democrats. Baitball Blogger Oct 2015 #26

Each state has their own election laws. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #28

Well, there's the problem. The numbers from the polls are the result of a process Baitball Blogger Oct 2015 #30

Well, most pollsters break their polls down into subgroups. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #31

Doesn't seem like anyone is taking advantage of that information. Baitball Blogger Oct 2015 #32

No, not normally. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #34

Exactly, the media... CoffeeCat Oct 2015 #5

Consumer Surveys solutions? ucrdem Oct 2015 #6

According to Nate Silver's 538, the polling firm Google Consumer Surveys Bernblu Oct 2015 #9

A majority of respondents were under 35 femmedem Oct 2015 #8

The most technical generation in American history will be in favor of Bernie Baitball Blogger Oct 2015 #27

Well let's hope that matters. That people aren't afraid to speak out. delrem Oct 2015 #11

Yargh... Erich Bloodaxe BSN Oct 2015 #12

The new NH one was conducted after the debate.. DCBob Oct 2015 #14

Post debate Hillary is gaining ground workinclasszero Oct 2015 #18

out of 500 dems/dem leaning only 18 voters polled under the age of 24 questionseverything Oct 2015 #35

The people claim Progressive dog Oct 2015 #15

One of the 'scientific' polls that had Hillary winning, 74% didn't watch the debate sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #16

people who actually watched the debate treestar Oct 2015 #17

There's no data to support that. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #20

Because there wasn't weeks of posts from Clinton supporters jeff47 Oct 2015 #23

Non sequitur treestar Oct 2015 #33

Wow, are you saying Hillary supporters couldn't even be bothered to watch the debate??? reformist2 Oct 2015 #29