2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Bernie Sanders will not have to face a Committee like the [View all]MineralMan
(151,281 posts)My point is that is was Hillary who went before the committee and basically shut them down. She did that publicly, and clips from it are everywhere, and will probably be used in her campaign.
That gives her an advantage with many voters. I'm not really arguing Clinton's exceptional ability, but saying that the fact that she got the coverage gives her campaign a boost.
How would Bernie Sanders have done in a similar situation. I don't know. Neither will anyone else. That's all my original post said, really. Since I'm a Clinton supporter, people have been reading into my post things I did not say. I thought she handled the situation very well, and would have expected her to do so.
Now, Sanders might have done just as well, but he wasn't in that situation, so his ability remains unknown to most voters. In that sense, those hearings benefited Hillary Clinton. It's all a matter of how things appear to voters. Is that fair? Probably not, but it's real. The combination of the debates, where Clinton did a very good job of presenting herself, Biden's decision not to run and these hearings are going to create a very solid, substantial bump in her poll results.
The polling released early next week is going to show a major shift. Those three events are going to move Clinton up in the polls unmistakably. She will pick up most of Joe Biden's numbers, get the bump from the debates, and receive further increases because of her performance in those hearings.
How much of a boost? I can't say for sure, but I'm sure it will be in the double digits in national polling, and high single digits in the NH and IA polling. We'll see on Monday or Tuesday.
While I'm a Clinton supporter, I'm more an observer of political campaigns. I have one vote in my precinct caucus on March 1, and know that my opinion is not going to make much of a difference. I think Hillary Clinton has helped herself over the past couple of weeks, and I think that will be reflected in the polling. That's my observation.