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2016 Postmortem

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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Sun Oct 25, 2015, 01:06 AM Oct 2015

Make your prediction. How long will the Democratic field remain at three candidates? [View all]

I am going to go ahead and say it will remain three for the foreseeable future.

Clinton - frontrunner by a huge margin, popularity on the upswing, has more than a quarter of total votes required to become the nominee thanks to the number of superdelegates that have publicly supported her and a substantial campaign war chest. The only thing that will kick her out of the race anytime soon would be a criminal conviction... and that isn't happening.

Sanders - He won't drop out anytime before it becomes clear he can't mathematically win, nor should anyone expect him to. However, I think he stays in right up to the convention, regardless. This is a huge public platform for him to show the what a democratic socialist actually is, and he can see that he is pushing the party to the left. Even if the numbers swing against him, I think he will use the bully pulpit to keep the party honest.

O'Malley - Most likely candidate to drop out next due to miniscule numbers in comparison to Clinton and Sanders. But I don't see it. I think O'Malley sticks around until votes start coming in, because he might feel that he would be the main benefactor on the off-chance Clinton does fold. There is no telling where the majority of Democratic voters and superdelegates would go, if the frontrunner did drop out of the race.

So my current prediction:

No one else drops out until after Iowa and New Hampshire.

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