Unskewing Monmouth's Iowa Poll [View all]

[magical thyme]

So Monmouth has released a new Iowa poll:

Hillary Clinton has support of 65% of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, while Bernie Sanders has

24% and Martin O’Malley has 5%, according to first Monmouth University poll since Clinton’s House Benghazi panel appearance and Vice President Joe Biden’s decision not to run.

If you believe this poll I have a bridge to sell you. There's no effing way this is correct.
This is a 10-12 point race in Iowa.

Did I break down the numbers for you? No. Because it is a fucking ridiculous result.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/27/1440708/-Unskewing-Monmouth-s-Iowa-Poll#

The comments say it all. Bad methodology.

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Nate Cohn
✔ ‎@Nate_Cohn
Clinton's 41 pt edge in Monmouth IA is bc the frame is wayyy too narrow: *reg* D who vtd in last 2 primary. That's not a caucus electorate
11:07 AM - 27 Oct 2015
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What a joke(1+ / 0-)
So you had to caucus during Dean/Kerry as well to be included in this poll? Who the hell approved this methodology?
by fatwa on Tue Oct 27, 2015 at 08:18:33 AM PDT
Gotta agree with you. (2+ / 0-)
There's no way the numbers could shift that drastically. What's the MOE? I just woke up so haven't looked at the crosstabs but anyone looking at those numbers should be skeptical.
P.S. I am not a crackpot.


New voters excluded(2+ / 0-)
Only 7% are between 18 and 34. 39% 65 and over. Ignore.
"When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.
by Paleo on Tue Oct 27, 2015 at 08:18:20 AM PDT


even the best pollsters are wrong(0+ / 0-)
5% of the time.
This is their first Iowa poll for Dems, so we've got nothing to compare it to.
Wisconsin Rising
by TobyRocksSoHard on Tue Oct 27, 2015 at 08:23:02 AM PDT