2016 Postmortem

BeyondGeography

(41,076 posts)

6. Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight

Reply to magical thyme (Original post)

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 11:41 AM

Oct 2015

http://articles.philly.com/2014-11-04/news/56391232_1_rutgers-eagleton-patrick-murray-democrat-robert-torricelli

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Unskewing Monmouth's Iowa Poll [View all] magical thyme Oct 2015 OP

I predicted LONG AGO that the "unskewing of polls" by Sanders supporters would begin at some point MohRokTah Oct 2015 #1

This is pretty obvious. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #17

Keep telling yourself that MohRokTah Oct 2015 #22

I created another thread that posts a link to the poll internals. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #30

Sounds representative of standard Iowa Caucus goers MohRokTah Oct 2015 #37

Old people the ones more likely to vote... Historic NY Oct 2015 #47

I remember the howls in 2008 Capt. Obvious Oct 2015 #52

Have chairs been introduced to Iowa yet? Plucketeer Oct 2015 #94

Why do you try so hard to be offensive? Ed Suspicious Oct 2015 #67

I think he really doesn't want Hillary to win. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #78

Why would I waste the time MohRokTah Oct 2015 #105

We don't have to. Hillary's own campaign is now saying the poll is rdiculous and actually sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #141

Trump is also now complaing about the scientific polls now that he is a loser! Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #24

The last resort of a defeated campaign. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #29

This poll isn't from a corporate entity ten times the size of CNN. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #38

I see light at the end of the tunnel...finally workinclasszero Oct 2015 #58

Trump and Bernie have something in common now! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #34

Nate Cohn is a Sanders supporter? Fawke Em Oct 2015 #71

Lol! bravenak Oct 2015 #80

It was kind of entertaining. ToxMarz Oct 2015 #95

Hillary pays $300,000 a month on polling. Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2015 #117

That's smart presidential politics MohRokTah Oct 2015 #118

I call it "Trying to buy a fricken clue." Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2015 #119

Great numbers for Hillary. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #2

It is an outlier kenfrequed Oct 2015 #25

76% of the respondents were over the age of 50 kenfrequed Oct 2015 #3

What percent of Iowa caucus goers are over the age of 50 generally? oberliner Oct 2015 #90

Probably kenfrequed Oct 2015 #100

I agree that the lead is probably not that big oberliner Oct 2015 #101

Kicking the unskewing MohRokTah Oct 2015 #4

Unskew those polls Bernie fans! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #5

Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight BeyondGeography Oct 2015 #6

Look at their methodology! stillwaiting Oct 2015 #15

The methodology is sound based on past voting patterns....are those going to change? Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #28

we shall see when people actually vote virtualobserver Oct 2015 #54

And this is what's going to make watching y'all get blindsided all the sweeter.. frylock Oct 2015 #77

I welome the outcome with open arms Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #130

But they're not. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #81

Exactly! kenfrequed Oct 2015 #103

Has it occured to you that "the population that is OVERWHELMINGLY supporting Bernie" isn't in Iowa? brooklynite Oct 2015 #41

Yeah the portion of the population that never shows up at the voting booth! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #62

Other than in 2008.. frylock Oct 2015 #79

Yup BHO I voted for him twice workinclasszero Oct 2015 #84

Yeah, me too. A lot of the people being outright dismissed as unreliable also voted for Obama.. frylock Oct 2015 #91

Ok workinclasszero Oct 2015 #92

The polls weighted to mostly Boomers? frylock Oct 2015 #97

Right, the people that actually get off the internet workinclasszero Oct 2015 #99

And now we've come full circle.. frylock Oct 2015 #102

I'm not worried about people that will sit home against their best interests workinclasszero Oct 2015 #104

They're also the population that caused Obama to win both times. jeff47 Oct 2015 #121

Yeah, just look at it! Facebook and Twitter are much more scientific. NYC Liberal Oct 2015 #70

Wow! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #18

Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight workinclasszero Oct 2015 #60

Truth the polls! Dr Hobbitstein Oct 2015 #7

Looks like there is a misunderstanding of how the sample was selected Godhumor Oct 2015 #8

That in itself is a skewing issue. blackspade Oct 2015 #109

Kicking the unskewing again because I forgot to rec the thread MohRokTah Oct 2015 #9

Dude, you okay? merrily Oct 2015 #14

This is pretty much an admission of defeat. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #20

You okay, though? merrily Oct 2015 #26

I won't die laughing. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #32

I'll save you!!!! bravenak Oct 2015 #86

Pretty sure they are better than ok. nt. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #35

Doesn't look that way Gore1FL Oct 2015 #68

I would say there isn't enough there to draw conclusion from as you have. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #76

I suppose the poster could just like to spam, too. Gore1FL Oct 2015 #82

I simply see that as more assumptions based of smilies. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #87

The context shows otherwise. Gore1FL Oct 2015 #113

Jury results zappaman Oct 2015 #42

Must have been one of my alert stalkers. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #45

That's a weird alert. Gore1FL Oct 2015 #73

Explanation: Alerter really had to struggle to come up with a reason for alerting and has failed Cha Oct 2015 #138

Sometimes it's easy. zappaman Oct 2015 #139

Yeah, and itchy fingers gets a 24 hr time out. OH WELL! Cha Oct 2015 #140

You can't make a freakin' move without those itchy alert fingers tracking you down. Lots of fun Cha Oct 2015 #137

Many (most?) polls are designed to influence opinion, not measure it. Scuba Oct 2015 #10

This far out, that is definitely so. merrily Oct 2015 #13

. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #16

The corporate oligarchs love guys like you. Scuba Oct 2015 #19

. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #23

AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service Capt. Obvious Oct 2015 #50

You need to come up with names treestar Oct 2015 #96

Here's a starter kit ... Scuba Oct 2015 #115

I wonder why Sanders (finally) hired one pollster of his own? merrily Oct 2015 #11

My God. It's just blatant and in your face isn't it? stillwaiting Oct 2015 #12

LOL....let's take trip down memory lane, shall we? Cali_Democrat Oct 2015 #21

IT's a blatant admission of defeat when they start unskewing the polls MohRokTah Oct 2015 #27

Hmmmmm BooScout Oct 2015 #31

Yep... kicking our asses to the poor house. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #112

Unskewiing polls worked so well for Romney and Karl Rove Gothmog Oct 2015 #33

With enough money, you can buy almost anything. People, polls, facebook likes, Zorra Oct 2015 #36

Or even Howard Deans pollester. Historic NY Oct 2015 #44

Dayum, my Skidmore Oct 2015 #63

Believe it or not, there really are people who pay for hundreds of thousands of Facebook likes Zorra Oct 2015 #69

That may be true. Skidmore Oct 2015 #83

I did not state, or imply, that "every person Zorra Oct 2015 #114

So the oligarchs have been buying the polls for decades now treestar Oct 2015 #98

More post-debate numbers from Iowa: Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #39

I suspect that this poll is an outlier... OilemFirchen Oct 2015 #40

I gave the methodology it's own thread magical thyme Oct 2015 #48

Profile of the Caucusgoers brooklynite Oct 2015 #43

very skewed toward older people, 75% landlines, 100% prior caucus-goers magical thyme Oct 2015 #46

Despite the record turnout in 2008... OilemFirchen Oct 2015 #53

exactly!! prior caucus participation may miss larger trends of newly motivated voters zazen Oct 2015 #72

Yes, in 2008 the Dem Party in my state had a caucus rather than a primary. tblue37 Oct 2015 #133

Hi MT, are you contesting the NYT data about Iowa caucus goers as well? emulatorloo Oct 2015 #55

That was always the Howard Dean plan...didn't work out quite that way brooklynite Oct 2015 #75

It was also the Obama plan. It worked out just fine for him (nt) jeff47 Oct 2015 #122

When I opened this, I thought it was going to be satire. NuclearDem Oct 2015 #49

Yup we made it here... Agschmid Oct 2015 #51

Not as prideless as the time DU went all 19th century on the Ebola propaganda, but close. Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #57

I hope no one is surprized at this. William769 Oct 2015 #56

I predicted it weeks ago MohRokTah Oct 2015 #59

Agreed. William769 Oct 2015 #61

And you were right workinclasszero Oct 2015 #64

LOL, Sanders fans are now unskewing polls? Was only a matter of time! NYC Liberal Oct 2015 #65

This forum is an absolute shambles today. Even worse than usual Number23 Oct 2015 #131

Look at the demographics of the electorate, especially in Iowa. They're right on! George II Oct 2015 #66

It's more of an outlier than anything else. Gore1FL Oct 2015 #74

"If you believe this poll I have a bridge to sell you." Tarc Oct 2015 #85

Hanging on to hope by it's tail upaloopa Oct 2015 #88

A second poll has confirmed the results of this poll. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #110

ROFL.. comedy at its best. Amimnoch Oct 2015 #89

Skewed Oligarchy!!! Gamecock Lefty Oct 2015 #93

I knew something smelled about this "poll"... SoapBox Oct 2015 #106

I'm laughing so hard at the Hillary supporters retrowire Oct 2015 #107

.... LexVegas Oct 2015 #108

. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #111

The results mirror the Loras Poll DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #120

It has basically the same voter screen. jeff47 Oct 2015 #123

You should start a facebook page where you and those similarly concerned can lodge your complaints DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #124

Why? We don't form our deeply-held beliefs based on the results of polls. (nt) jeff47 Oct 2015 #125

Then there isn't a problem. Sometimes a poll is just a poll./nt DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #126

And yet that does not make it impossible to discuss their voter screen. (nt) jeff47 Oct 2015 #127

Loras College released a new Iowa poll a short time ago: George II Oct 2015 #116

And like the Monmouth poll, it excluded younger and new voters who are not yet registered magical thyme Oct 2015 #128

Neither "excluded" younger and new voters - both used a sampling that reflects the demographics... George II Oct 2015 #129

Regardless of how one feels DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #132

Excellent analysis, thank you. Apparently even her own campaign doesn't believe that poll. sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #134

Funny how polls that show BS gaining on HRC ... NanceGreggs Oct 2015 #135

The leveling of support has been occuring for some time now. Dem2 Oct 2015 #136

Dewey Defeats Truman! n/t Admiral Loinpresser Oct 2015 #142