2016 Postmortem

jeff47

(26,549 posts)

121. They're also the population that caused Obama to win both times.

Tue Oct 27, 2015, 04:52 PM

Oct 2015

In 2012, Obama lost voters over 40. In 2008, he lost or statistically tied voters over 40.

It was "the kids" who actually caused Obama to win both elections.

And you're pissing on them.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

142 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Unskewing Monmouth's Iowa Poll [View all] magical thyme Oct 2015 OP

I predicted LONG AGO that the "unskewing of polls" by Sanders supporters would begin at some point MohRokTah Oct 2015 #1

This is pretty obvious. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #17

Keep telling yourself that MohRokTah Oct 2015 #22

I created another thread that posts a link to the poll internals. HerbChestnut Oct 2015 #30

Sounds representative of standard Iowa Caucus goers MohRokTah Oct 2015 #37

Old people the ones more likely to vote... Historic NY Oct 2015 #47

I remember the howls in 2008 Capt. Obvious Oct 2015 #52

Have chairs been introduced to Iowa yet? Plucketeer Oct 2015 #94

Why do you try so hard to be offensive? Ed Suspicious Oct 2015 #67

I think he really doesn't want Hillary to win. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #78

Why would I waste the time MohRokTah Oct 2015 #105

We don't have to. Hillary's own campaign is now saying the poll is rdiculous and actually sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #141

Trump is also now complaing about the scientific polls now that he is a loser! Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #24

The last resort of a defeated campaign. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #29

This poll isn't from a corporate entity ten times the size of CNN. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #38

I see light at the end of the tunnel...finally workinclasszero Oct 2015 #58

Trump and Bernie have something in common now! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #34

Nate Cohn is a Sanders supporter? Fawke Em Oct 2015 #71

Lol! bravenak Oct 2015 #80

It was kind of entertaining. ToxMarz Oct 2015 #95

Hillary pays $300,000 a month on polling. Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2015 #117

That's smart presidential politics MohRokTah Oct 2015 #118

I call it "Trying to buy a fricken clue." Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2015 #119

Great numbers for Hillary. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #2

It is an outlier kenfrequed Oct 2015 #25

76% of the respondents were over the age of 50 kenfrequed Oct 2015 #3

What percent of Iowa caucus goers are over the age of 50 generally? oberliner Oct 2015 #90

Probably kenfrequed Oct 2015 #100

I agree that the lead is probably not that big oberliner Oct 2015 #101

Kicking the unskewing MohRokTah Oct 2015 #4

Unskew those polls Bernie fans! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #5

Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight BeyondGeography Oct 2015 #6

Look at their methodology! stillwaiting Oct 2015 #15

The methodology is sound based on past voting patterns....are those going to change? Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #28

we shall see when people actually vote virtualobserver Oct 2015 #54

And this is what's going to make watching y'all get blindsided all the sweeter.. frylock Oct 2015 #77

I welome the outcome with open arms Elmer S. E. Dump Oct 2015 #130

But they're not. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #81

Exactly! kenfrequed Oct 2015 #103

Has it occured to you that "the population that is OVERWHELMINGLY supporting Bernie" isn't in Iowa? brooklynite Oct 2015 #41

Yeah the portion of the population that never shows up at the voting booth! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #62

Other than in 2008.. frylock Oct 2015 #79

Yup BHO I voted for him twice workinclasszero Oct 2015 #84

Yeah, me too. A lot of the people being outright dismissed as unreliable also voted for Obama.. frylock Oct 2015 #91

Ok workinclasszero Oct 2015 #92

The polls weighted to mostly Boomers? frylock Oct 2015 #97

Right, the people that actually get off the internet workinclasszero Oct 2015 #99

And now we've come full circle.. frylock Oct 2015 #102

I'm not worried about people that will sit home against their best interests workinclasszero Oct 2015 #104

They're also the population that caused Obama to win both times. jeff47 Oct 2015 #121

Yeah, just look at it! Facebook and Twitter are much more scientific. NYC Liberal Oct 2015 #70

Wow! workinclasszero Oct 2015 #18

Monmouth and Murray are rated A- by FiveThirtyEight workinclasszero Oct 2015 #60

Truth the polls! Dr Hobbitstein Oct 2015 #7

Looks like there is a misunderstanding of how the sample was selected Godhumor Oct 2015 #8

That in itself is a skewing issue. blackspade Oct 2015 #109

Kicking the unskewing again because I forgot to rec the thread MohRokTah Oct 2015 #9

Dude, you okay? merrily Oct 2015 #14

This is pretty much an admission of defeat. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #20

You okay, though? merrily Oct 2015 #26

I won't die laughing. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #32

I'll save you!!!! bravenak Oct 2015 #86

Pretty sure they are better than ok. nt. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #35

Doesn't look that way Gore1FL Oct 2015 #68

I would say there isn't enough there to draw conclusion from as you have. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #76

I suppose the poster could just like to spam, too. Gore1FL Oct 2015 #82

I simply see that as more assumptions based of smilies. NCTraveler Oct 2015 #87

The context shows otherwise. Gore1FL Oct 2015 #113

Jury results zappaman Oct 2015 #42

Must have been one of my alert stalkers. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #45

That's a weird alert. Gore1FL Oct 2015 #73

Explanation: Alerter really had to struggle to come up with a reason for alerting and has failed Cha Oct 2015 #138

Sometimes it's easy. zappaman Oct 2015 #139

Yeah, and itchy fingers gets a 24 hr time out. OH WELL! Cha Oct 2015 #140

You can't make a freakin' move without those itchy alert fingers tracking you down. Lots of fun Cha Oct 2015 #137

Many (most?) polls are designed to influence opinion, not measure it. Scuba Oct 2015 #10

This far out, that is definitely so. merrily Oct 2015 #13

. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #16

The corporate oligarchs love guys like you. Scuba Oct 2015 #19

. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #23

AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service Capt. Obvious Oct 2015 #50

You need to come up with names treestar Oct 2015 #96

Here's a starter kit ... Scuba Oct 2015 #115

I wonder why Sanders (finally) hired one pollster of his own? merrily Oct 2015 #11

My God. It's just blatant and in your face isn't it? stillwaiting Oct 2015 #12

LOL....let's take trip down memory lane, shall we? Cali_Democrat Oct 2015 #21

IT's a blatant admission of defeat when they start unskewing the polls MohRokTah Oct 2015 #27

Hmmmmm BooScout Oct 2015 #31

Yep... kicking our asses to the poor house. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #112

Unskewiing polls worked so well for Romney and Karl Rove Gothmog Oct 2015 #33

With enough money, you can buy almost anything. People, polls, facebook likes, Zorra Oct 2015 #36

Or even Howard Deans pollester. Historic NY Oct 2015 #44

Dayum, my Skidmore Oct 2015 #63

Believe it or not, there really are people who pay for hundreds of thousands of Facebook likes Zorra Oct 2015 #69

That may be true. Skidmore Oct 2015 #83

I did not state, or imply, that "every person Zorra Oct 2015 #114

So the oligarchs have been buying the polls for decades now treestar Oct 2015 #98

More post-debate numbers from Iowa: Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #39

I suspect that this poll is an outlier... OilemFirchen Oct 2015 #40

I gave the methodology it's own thread magical thyme Oct 2015 #48

Profile of the Caucusgoers brooklynite Oct 2015 #43

very skewed toward older people, 75% landlines, 100% prior caucus-goers magical thyme Oct 2015 #46

Despite the record turnout in 2008... OilemFirchen Oct 2015 #53

exactly!! prior caucus participation may miss larger trends of newly motivated voters zazen Oct 2015 #72

Yes, in 2008 the Dem Party in my state had a caucus rather than a primary. tblue37 Oct 2015 #133

Hi MT, are you contesting the NYT data about Iowa caucus goers as well? emulatorloo Oct 2015 #55

That was always the Howard Dean plan...didn't work out quite that way brooklynite Oct 2015 #75

It was also the Obama plan. It worked out just fine for him (nt) jeff47 Oct 2015 #122

When I opened this, I thought it was going to be satire. NuclearDem Oct 2015 #49

Yup we made it here... Agschmid Oct 2015 #51

Not as prideless as the time DU went all 19th century on the Ebola propaganda, but close. Fred Sanders Oct 2015 #57

I hope no one is surprized at this. William769 Oct 2015 #56

I predicted it weeks ago MohRokTah Oct 2015 #59

Agreed. William769 Oct 2015 #61

And you were right workinclasszero Oct 2015 #64

LOL, Sanders fans are now unskewing polls? Was only a matter of time! NYC Liberal Oct 2015 #65

This forum is an absolute shambles today. Even worse than usual Number23 Oct 2015 #131

Look at the demographics of the electorate, especially in Iowa. They're right on! George II Oct 2015 #66

It's more of an outlier than anything else. Gore1FL Oct 2015 #74

"If you believe this poll I have a bridge to sell you." Tarc Oct 2015 #85

Hanging on to hope by it's tail upaloopa Oct 2015 #88

A second poll has confirmed the results of this poll. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #110

ROFL.. comedy at its best. Amimnoch Oct 2015 #89

Skewed Oligarchy!!! Gamecock Lefty Oct 2015 #93

I knew something smelled about this "poll"... SoapBox Oct 2015 #106

I'm laughing so hard at the Hillary supporters retrowire Oct 2015 #107

.... LexVegas Oct 2015 #108

. MohRokTah Oct 2015 #111

The results mirror the Loras Poll DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #120

It has basically the same voter screen. jeff47 Oct 2015 #123

You should start a facebook page where you and those similarly concerned can lodge your complaints DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #124

Why? We don't form our deeply-held beliefs based on the results of polls. (nt) jeff47 Oct 2015 #125

Then there isn't a problem. Sometimes a poll is just a poll./nt DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #126

And yet that does not make it impossible to discuss their voter screen. (nt) jeff47 Oct 2015 #127

Loras College released a new Iowa poll a short time ago: George II Oct 2015 #116

And like the Monmouth poll, it excluded younger and new voters who are not yet registered magical thyme Oct 2015 #128

Neither "excluded" younger and new voters - both used a sampling that reflects the demographics... George II Oct 2015 #129

Regardless of how one feels DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #132

Excellent analysis, thank you. Apparently even her own campaign doesn't believe that poll. sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #134

Funny how polls that show BS gaining on HRC ... NanceGreggs Oct 2015 #135

The leveling of support has been occuring for some time now. Dem2 Oct 2015 #136

Dewey Defeats Truman! n/t Admiral Loinpresser Oct 2015 #142