2016 Postmortem

AZ Progressive

(3,411 posts) Fri Nov 13, 2015, 07:35 PM Nov 2015

Thom Hartmann said something important about the polling methodology today... [View all]

He said that most of these polls only consider "likely voters", which actually is defined by someone who has voted in at least the last 2 primaries, maybe the last 2 to 4 primaries.

Thus the current polling ignores any potential for young voters to participate in the primaries as typically they don't participate much compared to older voting groups.

If Bernie is able to mobilize millennials to vote in the primaries (which looks likely), the current polling is effectively meaningless as Bernie's support is actually higher.

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Thom Hartmann said something important about the polling methodology today... [View all] AZ Progressive Nov 2015 OP

Dean was going to mobilize the youth in 2004. MohRokTah Nov 2015 #1

Obama mobilized the youth vote in 2008, he did not lose Bjorn Against Nov 2015 #4

No, he really didn't. MohRokTah Nov 2015 #6

The census bureau disagrees with you. Bjorn Against Nov 2015 #18

You are citing turnout in the General Election, not the primaries and caucuses. eom MohRokTah Nov 2015 #19

Well it just so happens that young voter turnout increased in the primaries as well... Bjorn Against Nov 2015 #23

Use that flyswatter! Rogue Democrat Nov 2015 #30

Not appreciably. Eom MohRokTah Nov 2015 #36

An increase from 9% to 14% is huge Bjorn Against Nov 2015 #37

No, it really isn't MohRokTah Nov 2015 #40

That was before the millennial wave AZ Progressive Nov 2015 #10

She me the stats on Millenials in the 2014 election. MohRokTah Nov 2015 #12

Thom Hartman told me that Bernie Sanders was giving out giftedgirl77 Nov 2015 #2

THREAD WIN!!!! MohRokTah Nov 2015 #14

Thank you.... giftedgirl77 Nov 2015 #29

ROFLMAO leftofcool Nov 2015 #28

"Don't trust the polls" is not a realistic position to take. (NT) PBass Nov 2015 #3

In a primary election it is a very realistic position to take Bjorn Against Nov 2015 #11

I didn't say that polls don't change. I said that not trusting polls is not realistic. (NT) PBass Nov 2015 #16

It is not realistic to trust polls in a primary election Bjorn Against Nov 2015 #17

I wouldn't trust ONE poll, but when all the polls seem to be saying the same thing, PBass Nov 2015 #21

Look at where both Obama and McCain were polling in 2007 Bjorn Against Nov 2015 #25

Would someone please inform Mr. Hartmann that different pollsters use different screens. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #5

I've been saying this all along. PatrickforO Nov 2015 #7

if your campaign is counting on millenials taught_me_patience Nov 2015 #8

Of course! yallerdawg Nov 2015 #9

lol Dem2 Nov 2015 #13

Not quite how likely voters are decided Godhumor Nov 2015 #15

Not Only That: What Harman may not have, but is also true 99th_Monkey Nov 2015 #20

Sanders Republicans? yallerdawg Nov 2015 #24

I'm glad you are amused about it. This is why Bernie will definitely be a far-stronger GR nominee 99th_Monkey Nov 2015 #27

"... his authenticity factor and rare integrity. It resonates with their humanity." yallerdawg Nov 2015 #31

Yes, some DO fall for Trump or Carson hate-based idiocy, but that's NOT who I'm talking about 99th_Monkey Nov 2015 #33

Okie dokie. yallerdawg Nov 2015 #34

I could do write-in, but will choose not to. 99th_Monkey Nov 2015 #35

Well, in that case... yallerdawg Nov 2015 #39

Iceberg polling Rosa Luxemburg Nov 2015 #22

I'm not worried about the polls, they're highly manipulated for results NorthCarolina Nov 2015 #26

Hillary's Campaign Manager: "A lot of the public polling is not very reliable" antigop Nov 2015 #32

+1. Mook's statement about polls should be written in neon letters. appalachiablue Nov 2015 #38

That statement was from June 12, 2015. yallerdawg Nov 2015 #41

Mook said that last summer I knew. His view of polls now is considerably different I'm sure. appalachiablue Nov 2015 #43

Another thing: Millenials have more skin in the game with college debt AZ Progressive Nov 2015 #42

Absolutely. That is a huge issue with millennials understandably. A candidate who appalachiablue Nov 2015 #44

What stage of political grief is "unskewing"? eom Bleacher Creature Nov 2015 #45