2016 Postmortem

MineralMan

(151,222 posts)

3. Looks like the national polling is settling in a

Tue Nov 17, 2015, 10:44 AM

Nov 2015

range for the time being. I didn't think the Iowa debate would alter the results much, if at all, and that seems to be the case. Barring any major events or disastrous lapses by the candidates, I expect these result margins will hold through the rest of 2015. People are just about to start their holiday activities, and political stuff will take a back seat to those.

I predict that the poll results will be stable looking ahead, with more activity, perhaps, after the first of next year. However, should the ISIS situation blow up even further, that might possibly change, probably in Clinton's favor.

Note: This is one Democrat's predictions only, based on over 50 years of observing Presidential elections.

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Morning Consult poll: Hillary 57%-Bernie 26% [View all] JaneyVee Nov 2015 OP

Huff is four days behind... DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #1

Here is their updated graph, ahead by 25.3%: George II Nov 2015 #25

But still no UMASS and PPRI poll where she is >60-30!!! DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #26

I haven't seen anything about either of those yet. Usually RealClearPolitics is the quickest... George II Nov 2015 #31

Salud DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #32

Hillary and Bernie tied with voters aged 18-29 BootinUp Nov 2015 #2

Voters aged 18-29 is one of the lowest turnout age-range. George II Nov 2015 #23

Taking half of the 18-29 demographic does not make a revolution. n/t Agnosticsherbet Nov 2015 #27

Big deal leftynyc Nov 2015 #49

People over 29 vote treestar Nov 2015 #55

umm. the yougin's are getting smarter. riversedge Nov 2015 #64

Looks like the national polling is settling in a MineralMan Nov 2015 #3

This poll was from Nov 13-16, so it did include debate. JaneyVee Nov 2015 #6

Yes. And it's in line with the others, plus or minus MineralMan Nov 2015 #7

I think it's over as well. (For all the reasons you stated.) NurseJackie Nov 2015 #15

Personally, I think the first debate always sets the tone. MineralMan Nov 2015 #18

� and an opinion that I value � NurseJackie Nov 2015 #19

That's very kind of you to say. MineralMan Nov 2015 #21

Primary debates can be interesting Blue_Adept Nov 2015 #30

The debate where the VT independent couldn't focus on the carnage in Paris for two minutes... DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #13

Bernie Sanders has a rather thin range of topics on which he has MineralMan Nov 2015 #20

I wonder what he is like in real life... DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #28

Clinton polling average by month brooklynite Nov 2015 #4

Somebody should do a chart of attacks on Hillary at our site and her rise in the polls. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #5

Too much trouble to bother with. MineralMan Nov 2015 #8

I wish I had your level of detachment, friend. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #9

What happens on DU has approximately zero impact MineralMan Nov 2015 #10

I agree but it is hard to see someone you genuinely like trashed on a daily basis. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #11

I think a poll on how many "recs" you can get by putting Hillary in your subject line.... Walk away Nov 2015 #51

+1 Historic NY Nov 2015 #14

And I call it an UPWARD Trend riversedge Nov 2015 #62

The trend is firming up and looking good for Hillary. sufrommich Nov 2015 #12

Yes, the trends for Hillary are consistant and firm. riversedge Nov 2015 #63

Very good news, indeed! This pleases me. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #16

Woo hoo MaggieD Nov 2015 #17

I'm confused. George II Nov 2015 #22

Also, Democrats were not looking for an alternative... msrizzo Nov 2015 #29

Exactly DownriverDem Nov 2015 #36

2007 numbers for Clinton were the same from August to this point as well. Goblinmonger Nov 2015 #34

This isn't 2007 and Sanders is not Barack Obama AND Obama was/is a Democrat. BIG differences! George II Nov 2015 #37

Oh, the old Sanders is a socialist thing. Goblinmonger Nov 2015 #38

WHO MENTIONED THAT SANDERS IS A SOCIALIST????????? This is EXACTLY what I said........... George II Nov 2015 #45

So when you said "Obama was/is a Democrat" what was your point? Goblinmonger Nov 2015 #48

Oh, bull, Goblin. okasha Nov 2015 #52

I agree he's not a socialist. So does he. Goblinmonger Nov 2015 #54

I didn't't say he is Mr Smith. okasha Nov 2015 #58

That's just not true. Goblinmonger Nov 2015 #59

Long time politician is how he looks to reality-focused people. okasha Nov 2015 #61

I thought polls didn't matter. AlbertCat Nov 2015 #24

November 16, 2007 Clinton 48% Obama 21% Goblinmonger Nov 2015 #33

Why? DownriverDem Nov 2015 #35

I'm sure they have no line of attack against Clinton Goblinmonger Nov 2015 #39

Check out twitter msrizzo Nov 2015 #41

I've seen some brutal rightwing commentary about Bernie. JaneyVee Nov 2015 #43

sorry clinton supporters Robbins Nov 2015 #44

That's not 57-26. George II Nov 2015 #46

The meme always overlooks the number of people running then treestar Nov 2015 #57

Nov 17, 2015 ** This is a POST-2nd debate poll: Clinton, 57, Sanders 26, O'M 2% riversedge Nov 2015 #40

And Just to Think . . . Gamecock Lefty Nov 2015 #42

75 million voters 18-29? In 2008 (admittedly there are more Americans now) there were only..... George II Nov 2015 #47

Nice! DCBob Nov 2015 #50

Outstanding! Alfresco Nov 2015 #53

The oligarchs are at it again! treestar Nov 2015 #56

K&R Bobbie Jo Nov 2015 #60

Poll! artislife Nov 2015 #65