2016 Postmortem

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)

32. The NH polls have been up and down...

Mon Nov 23, 2015, 01:08 PM

Nov 2015

I do look at the general trends. Sanders have been ahead generally in NH. Some polls have had Clinton up a few points in NH.

I do expect that Iowa and NH will tighten as each state's primary vote draws nearer.

The biggest takeaway, for me--is that Sanders is only behind by 6 in Iowa--with 10 weeks to go. Obama was behind by 10 at this point in the 08 campaign. And he had been campaigning in the state more than Sanders has. Sanders organized quite a few large events that were attended by thousands, in Iowa. But that was in the late summer. Then, he kind of disappeared.

The Sanders campaign in Iowa almost seems to be on the back burner. I assumed that he was planning to ramp up after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Seriously...to be within six at this point (doing better than Obama did at this point) is stunningly good news.

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Sanders leads New Hampshire, he's seen as change candidate and his approach to Wall Street preferred [View all] Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 OP

Hard to believe she is within the MOE in NH. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #1

Hillary Clinton extends Iowa lead, narrows Sanders' lead in NH NCTraveler Nov 2015 #2

Odd headline given the polling shows Clinton lagging in NH and a tight race in Iowa and the Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #3

Why would you find a one hundred percent accurate headline to be odd. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #5

Because this polling is better news for Sanders than Clinton, and the headline suggests otherwise Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #8

So, if Clinton gains ground or expands her lead..... NCTraveler Nov 2015 #9

Sanders is winning NH and Iowa is within the margin of error and voters prefer Sanders' approach to Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #13

"She clicks her vote in the online poll, and you'll never believe what happens next." NurseJackie Nov 2015 #15

lol. I don't get the excitement of losing ground in a poll. I'm just laughing here. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #17

Obama won the Iowa caucuses, and was behind by 10 at this point! CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #14

Behind by six and losing ground according to this poll. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #16

I am from Iowa... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #19

They are trying very hard to make lemonade out of this poll. Who can blame them? 2015 is looking Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #21

It is amazing...I used to work in public relations... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #27

The caucuses depend so much on enthusiasm as much as raw numbers that I also feel good about Iowa. Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #31

"peaking too early" CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #47

No clue how you are missing the trend considering you pay such close attention. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #24

The NH polls have been up and down... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #32

They have been up for Sanders for months with a clear trend of him losing ground..... NCTraveler Nov 2015 #34

I see trends. Clinton's losing by a smaller amount now than she was last month. Hooray for Clinton! Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #37

Sanders was ahead in Iowa polling in September mythology Nov 2015 #29

Yes, Sanders was ahead after the summer... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #42

Thank you. Why do people insist on equating President Obama with Bernie Sanders? Laser102 Nov 2015 #48

I think people are more inclined to equate Hillary in 2007 to Hillary in 2015. Sanders has unified Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #53

7% MOE. JaneyVee Nov 2015 #4

Yes. Headline should be Sanders leads NH and candidates tied in Iowa (gap less than margin of error) Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #6

Take a look at the actual headline of the article. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #7

We,re both happy with this polling. A rare point of agreement. We should celebrate our shared joy. Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #10

Clinton gaining ground or increasing her lead in each state mentioned. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #11

Sanders winning NH and within the margin of error in Iowa and his message hitting target in both Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #18

Good catch - CBS can't think much of their own polls' reliability. Each of them have relatively.... George II Nov 2015 #56

"With a seven point-margin, Sanders' lead is half of what it was last month."... SidDithers Nov 2015 #12

With a 7% lead over Clinton, his lead in New Hampshire twice what it was last week Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #20

That makes absolutely no sense... SidDithers Nov 2015 #22

Right. Clinton is doing better than she was last month but worse than she was doing last week. Room Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #25

You're comparing this poll to polls from other sources. That doesn't work Godhumor Nov 2015 #30

Here---comparing apples to apples riversedge Nov 2015 #35

I'm so happy for the Clinton campaign that her polling is up after the Benghazi hearings! Hooray for Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #39

Sure. Happy Turkey day riversedge Nov 2015 #40

Happy Thanksgiving! Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #45

Works for me (also, I do a pretty fair amount of focus work and polling and it pretty much works in Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #38

No, it doesn't Godhumor Nov 2015 #44

Polls are a snapshot (nothing more). Some polls use better methods, and some cut corners. If you Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #52

This poll was 54-39 for Sanders last month. Sept Sanders was even further ahead in this poll in NH. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #26

SC (and essentially all of the south) is Bernie's achilles heel. DCBob Nov 2015 #23

SC and essentially all of the post-New Hampshire contests (including the south) historically reflect Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #28

Actually that is not correct. South Carolina often votes differently than Iowa and NH... DCBob Nov 2015 #43

Wow, you guys are all ready throwing Iowa under the bus!! CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #46

Not at all. I have little doubt that Hillary will win both Iowa and NH.. DCBob Nov 2015 #49

Even after 2008? CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #50

Different time, different candidate. DCBob Nov 2015 #51

If anything, Clinton has more disadvantages this time around in Iowa, NH... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #54

I think the reason most are not "alarmed" is that Bernie is such a narrow candidate. DCBob Nov 2015 #59

...but if Sanders wins both Iowa and NH... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #63

Unlikely as that is to happen, it would still not have much impact on SC, and going forward. DCBob Nov 2015 #64

Here is the current trend line over the past month's polling in Iowa (a very good trend for Sanders) Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #62

Actually this is the more correct view.. DCBob Nov 2015 #67

Compared to last poll Sanders is down 9 points in NH riversedge Nov 2015 #33

34 replies and i can't see any of them Robbins Nov 2015 #36

56 now and I can see 3! MissDeeds Nov 2015 #57

NH is a dead heat Dem2 Nov 2015 #41

Iowa is also within the margin of error. Could be an interesting February! Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #66

I've made my decision, based on polling: I'm going to open a polling firm. nt Buns_of_Fire Nov 2015 #55

LOL and the best part is you do not have to be right to sell jwirr Nov 2015 #58

Be careful.. DianeK Nov 2015 #60

He seems to do well in states with lilly-white electorates, but Freddie Stubbs Nov 2015 #61

Sanders' campaign has been appropriately focused on Iowa and New Hampshire; he didn't pick those Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #65

Sanders' campaign isn't focusing much resources in SC? Freddie Stubbs Nov 2015 #68

No we won't "see where the momentum takes him" brooklynite Nov 2015 #69

This crown-the-queen plan worked so well for Clinton in 2007 that you should definitely stick with Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #70