2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: novenator at 'Kos- Sanders: the most electable candidate that will build a STRONGER Democratic Party [View all]Jarqui
(10,798 posts)I have done some state by state analysis myself and agree with the top post's conclusions. Ignoring finances and maybe endorsements, Bernie has as good a chance as Hillary, if not better, in the general election.
Something I didn't see mentioned in my first quick read (maybe I've missed it) but Sanders doesn't just have good favorability and trustworthiness numbers, Hillary's are somewhere between poor and bad. I think that's a big deal. No matter what she does, Hillary cannot repair that trust problem she build up over two and a half decades much. As I've said before, her ceiling is much lower than Bernie's.
But the bigger point is that when you look at Hillary's support in depth in the polls, a number are supporting her because they think she's the only one of the two who can win. I think they are wrong but the media isn't saying so. Sanders gets more Republican support in all of the polls I've seen lately and many, if not all pools showing him drawing from Independents better than Hillary. Even if one didn't fully agree, the case for Bernie's electability when you study it is a lot better than what is being assumed in the media when you actually look at the polls. If Sanders supporters can tout that to others convincingly, the gap between the two will narrow substantially.