2016 Postmortem

MineralMan

(151,748 posts)

3. Those two curves in your lower chart

Sat Nov 28, 2015, 03:36 PM

Nov 2015

are pretty telling. With less than 10% in the undecided column and the more or less parallel curves for Hillary and Sanders, there doesn't seem to be room for a takeover surge. 90% of the voters are already charted, if the polling is correct. There's too much distance between the two curves for that to make the difference.

Also, Sanders' curve is flattening slightly, while Clinton's is steepening a bit. That means that the separation is growing greater, not less. In order to beat Clinton, Sanders will have to convert a good number of Clinton's current supporters in the polling. I"m not sure when that's supposed to happen or why it might happen.

Looks to me like, given current charting, Sanders will have quite a reach to hit 40% before March 1, when things will become pretty clear for next year's primary elections and caucuses.

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Highlight:

Those circulating the "Sanders is doing better than Obama at this point" meme should keep in mind... [View all] brooklynite Nov 2015 OP

What I want to know AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #1

And by "do this" you mean point out polling data that Sanders isn't disputing? brooklynite Nov 2015 #2

Do what? State facts? RandySF Nov 2015 #4

Over a decade ago? AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #8

I think we're still exaggerating the cell phone effect. RandySF Nov 2015 #9

Then explain this, beginning in 2004... AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #15

I find 50% to be unbelievable. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #21

"Everyone I know voted for McGovern" RandySF Nov 2015 #27

Clever - Let me ask you a question. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #30

"When painted into a corner, change the subject" AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #68

~~~~> I HAVE A LAND LINE AND I LOVE IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! trueblue2007 Nov 2015 #61

Most credible pollsters poll landline and cell phone users. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #25

If they do that they must dial manually. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #32

ABC-WAPO , CNN, FOX, NBC-WSJ, CBS-NYT all do landline/cell phone polls. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #35

You posted a debate poll a week or two ago wherein over half of the respondents AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #69

This message was self-deleted by its author DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2015 #74

Which group do you think is not using the Internet? MineralMan Nov 2015 #5

Hillary supporters AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #6

That's just silly, I think. MineralMan Nov 2015 #10

Well then why AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #13

I haven't seen anyone answer your question yet. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #22

I have been asking it for quite a while now AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #23

Keep at it, it's a great question. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #24

Oh, I will AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #70

Yup nt artislife Nov 2015 #33

I was obsessed with online polls redstateblues Nov 2015 #41

You and I are in the same boat as far as online polling is concerned. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #46

I don't understand why you think this is particularly significant. tritsofme Nov 2015 #34

Because it shows AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #36

You apparently have no idea how incredibly silly this sounds. tritsofme Nov 2015 #53

list the corporations that want Sanders to get the nomination AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #55

Are you accusing every single polling company of conspiracy? tritsofme Nov 2015 #64

It's not the polling companies AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #66

because on line polls are useless voodoo dsc Nov 2015 #40

That's the excuse we get every time AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #42

actually online polls are often programmed votes dsc Nov 2015 #43

Every online poll in existence? AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #49

I don't do internet polls hack89 Nov 2015 #50

funny, every one of her supporters says the same thing AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #56

So we are all liars? Got it. hack89 Nov 2015 #62

I don't believe them AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #67

. bravenak Nov 2015 #72

I don't do them ever, for anything treestar Nov 2015 #75

That's what all her supporters say AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #78

I haven't even seen one to click on treestar Nov 2015 #85

I do not click on online polls. They are nonsence. riversedge Nov 2015 #54

lol AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #57

Using the Internet isn't being an Internet native mythology Nov 2015 #65

Aging, everybody uses the internet, even my 92-year-old father. Nitram Nov 2015 #37

Then the answer is A AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #71

so true treestar Nov 2015 #76

Then that settles it AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #79

I know I generalize but old people on the internet treestar Nov 2015 #84

Those two curves in your lower chart MineralMan Nov 2015 #3

Help me out here, how are 90% of voters already charted? Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #7

56.6 +31.7 JaneyVee Nov 2015 #11

Thank you - I got that part. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #18

Add up the percentages in the current aggregates polling results. MineralMan Nov 2015 #14

Thank you. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #16

We will see indeed. MineralMan Nov 2015 #17

Another thing MFrohike Nov 2015 #12

You know, I don't think your statement is actually true. MineralMan Nov 2015 #19

You clearly have access to the internet MFrohike Nov 2015 #28

the issue with the literary digest wasn't sample size dsc Nov 2015 #45

You're right MFrohike Nov 2015 #48

I think I get what you are saying now dsc Nov 2015 #51

Actually, no MFrohike Nov 2015 #52

I agree. Juicy_Bellows Nov 2015 #20

I find it ironic that the same people who speak so negatively about Obama as a President BainsBane Nov 2015 #26

A political campaign is not governing AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #80

What will be the excuse RandySF Nov 2015 #29

I think the OP makes a good point. I think it's sad Hillary supporters don't have much else to say.. Bread and Circus Nov 2015 #31

Circus, we have lot to say, and we have. Nitram Nov 2015 #38

It's huge and I have to concede Clinton's lead and coalition is nearly insurmountable. Bread and Circus Nov 2015 #44

I've given up reading the obviously anti-Clinton pro-Sanders comments because... Nitram Nov 2015 #58

I wasn't privy to that. To me it just looks like there are many issues that are indefensible. Bread and Circus Nov 2015 #63

You're right. NanceGreggs Nov 2015 #73

But, online polls!!11 Starry Messenger Nov 2015 #39

Everyone knows online polls are bunk workinclasszero Nov 2015 #47

Agree, in for the fact one can vote in online polls over and over does not Thinkingabout Nov 2015 #59

You only say that because she consistantly loses in them by wide margins AgingAmerican Nov 2015 #81

"Sanders is doing better than Obama at this point" HUH??? IN WHAT ALTERNATE UNIVERSE?? trueblue2007 Nov 2015 #60

In 08, Republicans and the Clinton camp liked to say Obama was treated like a messiah or god or Bluenorthwest Nov 2015 #77

They are both VERY good. Crystalite Nov 2015 #83

Problem: Hillary Clinton has amassed far more baggage than she had in 2007. Crystalite Nov 2015 #82