2016 Postmortem

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)

132. The main problem with your analysis (and there are a number of them) ...

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 08:08 PM

Dec 2015

... is that there is no way to know which groups are dominating the discussion.

For all you know, most of that chatter is from RWers talking to other RWers on RW web sites.

And that's all it is, chatter.

A vote is a choice. Its a choice between two specific alternatives. A choice that one must act on for it to have any relevance.

The important "perception" is the one in which Democrats who say that they are likely to vote (specific action) say they are going to perform that specific action, and vote for Hillary by a margin of somewhere between 15-30% over Bernie.

People say all kinds of things that are "associated" with their attitudes, and yet many of those things are not predictive of how those people will ACT in the slightest.

The fact that "some of them will vote" is statistically speaking, irrelevant.

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Hillary Clinton is getting crushed on social media, captured in one word cloud [View all] pinebox Dec 2015 OP

Who the hell cares? leftofcool Dec 2015 #1

Who the hell cares? Hepburn Dec 2015 #3

What, you mean those few of you on DU? leftofcool Dec 2015 #109

No. We mean the 46 percent of voters who are independent. eom Fawke Em Dec 2015 #122

All this shows is Republicans hate her. JaneyVee Dec 2015 #131

No, not true. If you look at those other words at the top of the page, you'll see. DisgustipatedinCA Dec 2015 #204

The important thing is your lawn, and the presence of those damn kids upon it. (nt) jeff47 Dec 2015 #6

Rec. PowerToThePeople Dec 2015 #8

Hey, it's mostly weeds anyway! Fuddnik Dec 2015 #86

+1 nt Javaman Dec 2015 #100

No, Jeff, you missed it, the exciting thing is how many Women president Cruz will kill randys1 Dec 2015 #103

Then we better elect a nominee who will actually get independents to the polls in a year. jeff47 Dec 2015 #106

The plan is to elect Bernie and if not Bernie, Hillary...it is that simple randys1 Dec 2015 #107

And what's Clinton's plan to get Democratic-leaning independents to show up jeff47 Dec 2015 #112

9/11 cui bono Dec 2015 #136

That! marble falls Dec 2015 #153

So, you feel that O'Malley or Sanders = Cruz? Scootaloo Dec 2015 #133

ARe you doing this on purpose? Being obtuse? So you have not seen me say one thousand randys1 Dec 2015 #205

A bit quick on the draw, maybe Scootaloo Dec 2015 #215

Oops, another ageist dog whistle! Nitram Dec 2015 #181

You mean like the one I replied to? jeff47 Dec 2015 #191

My retirement age has already gone up. Nitram Dec 2015 #193

And you think mine didn't? jeff47 Dec 2015 #196

You brought up the retirement age as it applied to you. I just replied that it affects me, too. Nitram Dec 2015 #201

No, I brought up the sensible DLC proposals to raise retirement age for everyone after you. jeff47 Dec 2015 #207

lol Babel_17 Dec 2015 #216

It's a word cloud, dammit...a word cloud! Show some respect!nt msanthrope Dec 2015 #7

I hear doctors are now using word clouds to cure cancer. JoePhilly Dec 2015 #11

, it is how we are going to defeat Isis. nt msanthrope Dec 2015 #18

... and replace fossil fuels. nt JoePhilly Dec 2015 #20

that's 2.8 million people saying good things about him to 300 million people out there. It is roguevalley Dec 2015 #49

Not happening. JoePhilly Dec 2015 #88

Well, I work in public relations and know that these word clouds Fawke Em Dec 2015 #123

The main problem with your analysis (and there are a number of them) ... JoePhilly Dec 2015 #132

Right now a word cloud is raking my leaves! FSogol Dec 2015 #78

can you send it over to my place next? rbrnmw Dec 2015 #127

LOL! That's some cloud. Laser102 Dec 2015 #134

They make great baby sitters too ... JoePhilly Dec 2015 #154

Ethical and informed voters care Android3.14 Dec 2015 #53

I was going to say "anyone who isn't an idiot", but I like your answer better. nt kristopher Dec 2015 #75

LMAO! leftofcool Dec 2015 #110

"The revolution will not be televised" sleepyvoter Dec 2015 #67

Once again, one of you managed to be the first post in a Bernie thread. You're all well trained. Ned_Devine Dec 2015 #83

He isn't the only one of them doing this. It is most likely a new tactic. The #1 response slot rhett o rick Dec 2015 #140

Negative associations with Hillary are what will cause her to lose the 2016 election. JDPriestly Dec 2015 #104

Evidently you do. Fearless Dec 2015 #120

And one more time a HRC supporter gets the #1 response slot. It must take some dedication rhett o rick Dec 2015 #139

I do. And I am not alone. Jester Messiah Dec 2015 #210

Agreed: The Social media is also hosting the Grazy GOP, and Trump lewebley3 Dec 2015 #212

I wonder if the powers that be in the Party realize ChairmanAgnostic Dec 2015 #2

Hillary IMO will lose the GE. Hepburn Dec 2015 #5

ewe betcha. ChairmanAgnostic Dec 2015 #12

More like being set up to take the rap nxylas Dec 2015 #15

The left always takes the rap. Fawke Em Dec 2015 #125

Yep MissDeeds Dec 2015 #16

Which in of itself might kill the GOP once and for all. LiberalArkie Dec 2015 #36

And there is a major movie coming out this year about the Benghazi cluster fuck truedelphi Dec 2015 #58

That seems pretty obvious. Jester Messiah Dec 2015 #211

they'll get rich and still go to the same expensive restaurants, they don't care Doctor_J Dec 2015 #35

Maybe that's the plan. It's a realization for some. SammyWinstonJack Dec 2015 #145

Kick UglyGreed Dec 2015 #4

Polls are so 1900s ... its all about WORD CLOUDS now!! JoePhilly Dec 2015 #9

Laugh away pinebox Dec 2015 #23

I think Hillary and her supporters do quite well Trajan Dec 2015 #24

Damn Joe, you too, my Thunder... Amimnoch Dec 2015 #46

Now let's back up my OP pinebox Dec 2015 #71

Two things about those polls that should worry you. kristopher Dec 2015 #97

ROFLMAO! leftofcool Dec 2015 #111

RW loved the polls until they got Trumped. They never expected single diget 'favorites'. Sunlei Dec 2015 #208

FEEL THE CLICKY-CLICKY! onehandle Dec 2015 #10

Sanders fans have been bragging they own social media, yet Hillary is winning. riversedge Dec 2015 #14

You're missing the point of the article pinebox Dec 2015 #22

Maybe Clinton supporters are loath to inflict hundreds of pro-Clinton memes on their... Nitram Dec 2015 #29

maybe clintonistas live in the dark ages and don't understand how social media drives opinion roguevalley Dec 2015 #54

Ha, ha, I love the ageism you Bernistas keep slinging our way. Nitram Dec 2015 #62

I think Hillary's ideas and philosophy are what nyabingi Dec 2015 #95

Socialism is so now and hip redstateblues Dec 2015 #183

No one said anything about age. Fawke Em Dec 2015 #126

Ever heard of a "dog whistle"? nt Nitram Dec 2015 #161

Actually, we are all out campaigning, getting out the vote etc............. leftofcool Dec 2015 #113

Well, come on now. Skidmore Dec 2015 #55

Your social media, is it FaceBook? Autumn Dec 2015 #138

You caught that too, eh? pinebox Dec 2015 #156

That's a heck of an inadvertent statement. It reads to me everybody the poster Autumn Dec 2015 #185

Ok honestly pinebox Dec 2015 #19

she can't change anything, only make it worse. Like defending her wall streetness while saying the roguevalley Dec 2015 #56

Her perception with the general public is doing great, Pine. Nitram Dec 2015 #68

Actually her public perception is pretty bad pinebox Dec 2015 #76

You realize you are posting a poll right? Agschmid Dec 2015 #143

Wise voters still keeping her polling up. They know better than to listen or read lies, riversedge Dec 2015 #13

Wise voters however pinebox Dec 2015 #21

Not sure what's the worse prospect ibegurpard Dec 2015 #34

That they know and don't care is far worse. SammyWinstonJack Dec 2015 #146

Most people don't hang out on political forums, Kalidurga Dec 2015 #43

HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!! WillyT Dec 2015 #17

ok. n/t zappaman Dec 2015 #25

alright. nt retrowire Dec 2015 #32

And this is the space where I'd find something snarky & hurtful to say about WillyT. DisgustipatedinCA Dec 2015 #206

K&R. eom Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #26

I rather get crushed on Facebook than in national polling ! FloridaBlues Dec 2015 #27

However pinebox Dec 2015 #48

Just another result of over-enthusiastic Bernistas constantly posting their... Nitram Dec 2015 #28

anti clinton smears -- truth and facts that stick sideways in some people's craws roguevalley Dec 2015 #59

The new meme of the week--Facts are now Hillary smears! pinebox Dec 2015 #162

To which "fact" are you refering? A word cloud? nt Nitram Dec 2015 #176

Uh huh... SoapBox Dec 2015 #65

Hey look retrowire Dec 2015 #30

Doesn't include everyone either upaloopa Dec 2015 #39

sorry retrowire Dec 2015 #52

Can enyone tell me why FIRED is so big in Clinton's cloud? nt Nitram Dec 2015 #31

Clinton was 'fired' upon by snipers in Bosnia TM99 Dec 2015 #47

Ah, yes. Nitram Dec 2015 #60

A hell of a lie indeed. n/t TM99 Dec 2015 #80

And about 15 or 20 MILLION voted for her at R B Garr Dec 2015 #105

It must be Republicans and Bernie supporters who would be trying to keep old news alive... Nitram Dec 2015 #157

Word clouds are created by looking at some text. MineralMan Dec 2015 #33

A bunch of staunchly conservative sites according to the article. JTFrog Dec 2015 #40

Ah. I see. Useless. MineralMan Dec 2015 #45

The input came from Twitter feeds during the month of November. LiberalArkie Dec 2015 #42

All of Twitter, do you suppose? MineralMan Dec 2015 #51

That is a fairly large analytics company doing that for some big companies LiberalArkie Dec 2015 #74

What Bernie folks do on social media doesn't upaloopa Dec 2015 #37

Not a poll pinebox Dec 2015 #57

Just ask Ron and Rand Paul! FSogol Dec 2015 #70

Just ask HuffPo! pinebox Dec 2015 #79

Huffpost is a joke. Nothing more than clickbait and celebrity news by unpaid "writers." FSogol Dec 2015 #84

So new meme of the week is now HuffPo is a joke pinebox Dec 2015 #94

That's not a meme, it is my opinion. Huffpost is a joke. Taking it seriously is a mistake. n/t FSogol Dec 2015 #99

So honest question pinebox Dec 2015 #150

Pine, they are valuable only if the sample is taken in a scientific manner. Nitram Dec 2015 #77

It's aggregation pinebox Dec 2015 #81

And Zignal Labs was founded by republican political operative Josh Ginsburg. nt Nitram Dec 2015 #158

And? Ben Coffey Clark works for Zignal. pinebox Dec 2015 #160

You "just crushed my tinfoil?" Can't you have a reasonable discussion without... Nitram Dec 2015 #163

Yawn pinebox Dec 2015 #180

Yawn? You sound more angry than bored. I looked up Josh Ginsberg and posted what I found. Nitram Dec 2015 #182

I'm too tired to be angry pinebox Dec 2015 #184

The Josh Ginsberg guy is a Republican activist. redstateblues Dec 2015 #194

I had not seen them... Mike Nelson Dec 2015 #38

commie isn't there though I am sure plenty have tried to make it so. roguevalley Dec 2015 #61

My reaction precisely. Nitram Dec 2015 #164

IMO there is no overwhelming number of people voicing a negative opinion of HRC NoMoreRepugs Dec 2015 #41

if this encompasses all of twitter for a month, this isn't limited to activists. roguevalley Dec 2015 #64

The OP explains that the tweets frequently link back to [articles on]... Nitram Dec 2015 #189

The right wing and Sanders supporters together Gman Dec 2015 #44

So let me get this straight pinebox Dec 2015 #63

The right wing and Bernistas both hate Clinton and want Bernie to be the nominee. Nitram Dec 2015 #165

Especially when those on the right pinebox Dec 2015 #170

They have no more crap to pull out on Clinton. Nitram Dec 2015 #172

Which RW talking points are Bernie supporters using? pinebox Dec 2015 #195

FIRED, LIES, UNETHICAL BEHAVIOR, CORRUPTION, PIZZA Nitram Dec 2015 #198

I don't see that as RW talking points, sorry pinebox Dec 2015 #200

Making those the central talking points about Clinton is indeed the RW POV. Nitram Dec 2015 #202

Gee...there is a scientific explanation! SoapBox Dec 2015 #69

It sure isn't rocket science Gman Dec 2015 #91

As ridiculously obsessed as the Baggers and the Berners are with Hillary hate, Darb Dec 2015 #50

Like this? pinebox Dec 2015 #66

That'll do. Darb Dec 2015 #87

Damn, I should start looking up unicorns. Beacool Dec 2015 #118

lol pinebox Dec 2015 #149

Wonder what the Free Republic word cloud would look like? FSogol Dec 2015 #73

For Hillary, identical. For Bernie, not so much. Darb Dec 2015 #89

Yup, major co-winky-dink. FSogol Dec 2015 #90

I will vote for the Democratic candidate..... dawnie51 Dec 2015 #72

Right because... pinebox Dec 2015 #82

Funny how that works isn't it? MissDeeds Dec 2015 #114

I guess it depends on where you're sitting. Nitram Dec 2015 #166

Well said, Dawnie. n/t FSogol Dec 2015 #85

Fresh take. frylock Dec 2015 #93

+1 lunamagica Dec 2015 #98

So will I, but keep in mind: DFW Dec 2015 #101

Hear, hear!!! Beacool Dec 2015 #117

Ooh, is it "loyalty oath" time? I do so love those. [nt] Jester Messiah Dec 2015 #213

I'm scared of the cloud!! NCTraveler Dec 2015 #92

One doesn't have to be scared to be dubious. Nitram Dec 2015 #167

Now that it's clear that Bernie is a spent force workinclasszero Dec 2015 #96

this is so laughable. truly roguevalley Dec 2015 #144

Karl Rove is a genius randys1 Dec 2015 #102

Where is "cut it out" wouldsman Dec 2015 #108

Democrats shouldn't nominate Hillary due to an unfavorable word cloud?????? Beacool Dec 2015 #115

Yes, Republicans really do hate Hillary with an insane intensity oberliner Dec 2015 #116

The problem is that Bernie supporters are feeding the same anti-Clinton frenzy. Nitram Dec 2015 #168

It's just a drop in the ocean oberliner Dec 2015 #186

You and me both. Nitram Dec 2015 #187

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #119

No one gives a crap MaggieD Dec 2015 #121

Well,apparently a lot of people, including you, give a crap! You bumped this post! LOL! nt Logical Dec 2015 #135

boy this one sure caused some butthurt ibegurpard Dec 2015 #124

Because it was clearly designed to cause butthurt. nt Nitram Dec 2015 #173

Tweeted to death... Facebooked to the ground.. Clickety clicked to oblivion! DCBob Dec 2015 #128

That's kind - compared to the 840high Dec 2015 #129

This is interesting Andy823 Dec 2015 #130

You should reexamine your assumptions. senz Dec 2015 #147

Hint: it's not her life-long dedication to liberal causes. Nitram Dec 2015 #169

Hillary supports "liberal" causes ONLY when she's running in a primary. senz Dec 2015 #174

You've expressed an extremely narow and totally innacurate view of Clinton. Nitram Dec 2015 #188

There's a reason why we gave Obama the nomination in 2008. senz Dec 2015 #190

I disagree. Clinton's performance at State, and her partnership with Obama... Nitram Dec 2015 #192

You should reexamine your assumptions. senz Dec 2015 #148

I will accept that Andy823 Dec 2015 #217

I know what you mean. senz Dec 2015 #224

Again I can agree Andy823 Dec 2015 #225

Well if you must know Andy823 pinebox Dec 2015 #151

So if you don't hate her Andy823 Dec 2015 #219

I'm a Bernie supporter but I think this is meaningless. hay rick Dec 2015 #137

I see this as the last real chance we will have to make inroads into regaining our rhett o rick Dec 2015 #141

Weak minds and low-information voters can be persuaded by the volume of crap they read online. Nitram Dec 2015 #171

Don't worry. Hill's got the MSM all tied up. senz Dec 2015 #177

I've seen as many anti-Clinton or neutral articles in the Post as I've seen pro-Clinton ones. Nitram Dec 2015 #179

It Makes You Think gordyfl Dec 2015 #142

Not to mention "fired" as one of her 4 most frequent identifying terms. Divernan Dec 2015 #152

Republican dog whistles wolfie001 Dec 2015 #155

The Sky is Falling Blunt Force Karma Dec 2015 #159

Yay! Let's hope we can take down MORE Democrats! If we wish really hard... randome Dec 2015 #175

Well! Good thing she's leading in that whole "who are you going to vote for" thing... brooklynite Dec 2015 #178

Mention any 'words' in news stories/across social media and the 'words' make the top list cloud. Sunlei Dec 2015 #197

So it's a trap? pinebox Dec 2015 #199

It's a media tactic and republicans are very good at their 'craft'.They like polls too until Trump Sunlei Dec 2015 #203

I'm not too sure about that pinebox Dec 2015 #222

No substance here, we have this porpaganda on regular basis, just more Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #209

"...most frequently link back to staunchly conservative sites" Tarc Dec 2015 #214

We are? pinebox Dec 2015 #221

Lately, a lot of the posts on this site smell of desperation. Beacool Dec 2015 #226

more importantly, Hillary's fav with Dems is 85, vs in 60s for @GOP rivals. Party is behind our can riversedge Dec 2015 #218

Among DEMS is the keyword pinebox Dec 2015 #220

Democrats need Democrats GOTV. riversedge Dec 2015 #223

How many independents Andy823 Dec 2015 #227

1/3 of your social media warriors won't bother to vote. misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #228