HuffPost: Hillary Clinton Will Finish Third In Iowa, Behind Bernie Sanders and O'Malley. Here's Why:

[CoffeeCat]

47. Spot on analysis; poor prediction (and a missed opportunity)

While I agree with his analysis of Hillary's neocon tendencies (I've quoted Kagan's praise of Hillary often on DU), her corporate ties, her pro-fracking behavior, her acceptance of for-profit prison dollars and her Wall Street connections--I disagree that she will come in third in Iowa.

She will place second. A distant second. O'Malley will barely register on the Iowa caucus Richter scale, and here is the reason--and the author's missed opportunity.

When you show up at your precinct to caucus--you gather with your neighbors to support your candidate. All participants divide into candidate camps. A FIRST count is taken. If any candidate does not meet a minimum threshold of support (determined by a percentage of total support) those supporters have two choices: Support another candidate; or sit out and not be counted.

If O'Malley continues to poll around 4-6 percent, it is likely that nearly all of this caucus supporters will face this situation at their caucus.

Many signs point to a weak Iowa caucus showing for O'Malley. He's got very limited funds. No television ads playing in Iowa and 1 office (Sanders and Clinton both have 20 Iowa offices).

It's possible that nearly all of O'Malley's supporters will end up being folded into other candidate camps. The question is--Where will they go? O'Malley supporters seem more in line with Sander's politics.

These O'Malley supporters could boost the camp that snags them--and that is significant because the latest polls have Bernie gaining ground in Iowa and behind Clinton in single digits.