Hillary leading Bernie Sanders among liberal primary voters

[Attorney in Texas]

14. Clinton fares well in the betting markets because none of the Republican candidates have risen up to

secure a sustained lead as the sustained front-runner in the betting markets.

I definitely think Predictwise (and other betting markets) provide some insight into the race, but they are a snapshot of the race. Bush lead the field at Predictwise for a long time even after his polling numbers tanked, but just because Bush lead the Predictwise market in early October, doesn't mean the race was over. Likewise, Predictwise now favors Rubio, but that doesn't mean Rubio is the nominee and doesn't even mean Rubio will be the Predictwise favorite in January. It's a snapshot.

You say "Independents aren't needed to win the GE." Think about that -- you are smart enough to know that's not true.

You say Obama "won almost every swing state and still lost independents," but that's not an accurate picture of the 2012 election at all: Obama did MUCH better among independents than what the numbers indicate for Clinton. Maybe that will change for Clinton, but her numbers currently look like general election poison (more than twice as bad as Obama's numbers looked in 2012).