2016 Postmortem

Manifestor_of_Light

(21,046 posts)

2. Margin of error, right.

Thu Dec 10, 2015, 08:16 PM

Dec 2015

I noticed that on MSNBC when they go over changes in stats, they will say "this is bigger than the MOE".

And a poll doesn't tell the person taking the poll what the voter will do when they are actually punching a ballot and thinking, "Do I REALLY want to vote for that person?" which I don't think is the same thing as the old phrase "hold your nose and vote".

I remember seeing Tweety saying that the margin of white voters for Obama who really put him over the top was 6 percent, or something like that.

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A reminder, if a poll shows a candidate being +2 or -1 since last month, it means nothing's changed [View all] Godhumor Dec 2015 OP

+1 ... 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #1

Your +1 is within the OP margin of error Godhumor Dec 2015 #3

Here's another +1. SURGE! JaneyVee Dec 2015 #7

Everything, including this OP allows encouragement. morningfog Dec 2015 #5

Margin of error, right. Manifestor_of_Light Dec 2015 #2

Right, but they're not talking month over month Godhumor Dec 2015 #4

I really appreciate your input this election, thanks GusBob Dec 2015 #6

Sure, I can answer both questions Godhumor Dec 2015 #8

I see it in the primer thanks GusBob Dec 2015 #9

I love your OP's ismnotwasm Dec 2015 #10

Gracias Godhumor Dec 2015 #11

As the number of "undecided" voters shrinks ... NurseJackie Dec 2015 #12

This OP is mathematically false. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #13

Hmm. No I don't think I will be deleting, but I will edit Godhumor Dec 2015 #14

That's accurate. Thank you for the update. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #15

No worries. Truthfully, I didn't want to get into the grey area n/t Godhumor Dec 2015 #18

Here is what you are looking for: redgreenandblue Dec 2015 #16

Yes, aggregations are a different beast Godhumor Dec 2015 #17