2016 Postmortem

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

14. Hmm. No I don't think I will be deleting, but I will edit

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 11:53 AM

Dec 2015

Last month a poll shows Clinton at 49 within an MOE of +/- 3%

This month it is at 50 with same MOE:

So 46 - 52 month one
Or 47 - 53 month two.

The only results outside of each other is the extreme edge of the MOE at 46 or 53.

Using the MOE as a stand-in for whether a change is significant is standard practice for quick interpretation. But I will add a note that when the mean moves it is possible to have significant change on the far outside of the band. Even though the only way to know whether you have significant change or not is if the margin is outside the range of the MOE. Which was the point of the OP.

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A reminder, if a poll shows a candidate being +2 or -1 since last month, it means nothing's changed [View all] Godhumor Dec 2015 OP

+1 ... 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #1

Your +1 is within the OP margin of error Godhumor Dec 2015 #3

Here's another +1. SURGE! JaneyVee Dec 2015 #7

Everything, including this OP allows encouragement. morningfog Dec 2015 #5

Margin of error, right. Manifestor_of_Light Dec 2015 #2

Right, but they're not talking month over month Godhumor Dec 2015 #4

I really appreciate your input this election, thanks GusBob Dec 2015 #6

Sure, I can answer both questions Godhumor Dec 2015 #8

I see it in the primer thanks GusBob Dec 2015 #9

I love your OP's ismnotwasm Dec 2015 #10

Gracias Godhumor Dec 2015 #11

As the number of "undecided" voters shrinks ... NurseJackie Dec 2015 #12

This OP is mathematically false. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #13

Hmm. No I don't think I will be deleting, but I will edit Godhumor Dec 2015 #14

That's accurate. Thank you for the update. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #15

No worries. Truthfully, I didn't want to get into the grey area n/t Godhumor Dec 2015 #18

Here is what you are looking for: redgreenandblue Dec 2015 #16

Yes, aggregations are a different beast Godhumor Dec 2015 #17