2016 Postmortem

jeff47

(26,549 posts)

9. Likely voter model.

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:57 PM

Dec 2015

They are "ahead" among likely primary voters. Independents or people who fall outside the poll's likely voter model are not counted when asking "who are you going to vote for?".

Favorability is asked of a broader pool of respondents.

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New poll: Clinton -11% (37% favorable; 48% unfavorable) Sanders +5% (36% favorable; 31% unfavorable) [View all] Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP

Congress has an 18% favorable rating yet we keep electing them. Agschmid Dec 2015 #1

People don't rate their own congresspeople (the ones they vote for)... thesquanderer Dec 2015 #11

Well, that says a lot, IMO: Hepburn Dec 2015 #2

Our media is always talking about Trump or Hillary. Duval Dec 2015 #25

Yeah....they say such loving things about Hillary Clinton VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #26

VanillaRhapsody, I must have missed the negative about Hillary on the news. Duval Dec 2015 #31

Question 17... SidDithers Dec 2015 #3

Lets repeat this.... workinclasszero Dec 2015 #15

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #4

It is largely because Trump's and Clinton's unfavorability is sky high among independents, voters Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #6

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #8

Yes, that is good, but she's far, far behind likely nominee Rubio and that's bad. Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #10

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #13

Likely voter model. jeff47 Dec 2015 #9

Independents can vote in some states' primaries RoccoR5955 Dec 2015 #18

Yes, but they are frequently discarded by likely voter models even in those states. jeff47 Dec 2015 #20

Nailed it. eom 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #32

It looks like favorable might be the political equivalent of "nice". JVS Dec 2015 #47

Perhaps you missed this part of the Poll... brooklynite Dec 2015 #5

It's a national poll and Clinton is much more familiar to voters in states where Sanders has not yet Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #7

Iowa PPP polling Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders Hillary 54% BS 34% MOM 7% SidDithers Dec 2015 #12

Yes and the latest poll RoccoR5955 Dec 2015 #19

There's only one pollster worth a damn in Iowa Kentonio Dec 2015 #21

If "Sanders has not yet campaigned to a significant extent" he's in real trouble... brooklynite Dec 2015 #14

"not camp out in 1-2 States and hope for a bounce" workinclasszero Dec 2015 #16

Oh gawd....Now with the "nobody knows him" defense! VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #28

They say it like it's a good thing ... 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #33

I know right? Has he been hiding under desks and in the Men's room all these years? VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #35

I agree with most of what you wrote, but as you are looking at all other comparisons, karynnj Dec 2015 #17

If I might add to your fine post comradebillyboy Dec 2015 #34

Thanks, but ... I don't believe that the idea that there is nothing that could hurt Clinton is true karynnj Dec 2015 #48

I don't really think favorability okasha Dec 2015 #56

Putting the polls together, it looks to me that if Hillary wins, we will have a president that the JDPriestly Dec 2015 #22

x1,000 Duval Dec 2015 #30

Selecting a nominee that the majority of the country doesn't like, trust, or approve of winter is coming Dec 2015 #36

+ 1000 LiberalLovinLug Dec 2015 #38

Hillary is toast! Helen Borg Dec 2015 #23

She is skeeered I'm telling you! VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #37

Hum......what your shoveling doesn't seem to matter Historic NY Dec 2015 #24

That's not too bad Bradical79 Dec 2015 #27

"name recognition" VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #29

Yeah that's Hillarious LiberalLovinLug Dec 2015 #39

who would think VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #40

Yeah what was wrong with him! LiberalLovinLug Dec 2015 #42

OHHHHHH You think her being a First Lady... VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #43

Fact: Bernie Sanders Got More Done in the Senate than Hillary Clinton LiberalLovinLug Dec 2015 #45

Bernie Sanders has been in office 37 yrs VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #46

"epic fail" - lol LiberalLovinLug Dec 2015 #52

Yeah VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #53

Those blinders must be glued on with Crazy Glue. LiberalLovinLug Dec 2015 #54

You mean reality? VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #55

The really telling number about his Congressional career okasha Dec 2015 #57

Yes, outside of political message boards Bradical79 Dec 2015 #41

Lets talk about 37 yrs VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #44

It doesn't mean much Bradical79 Dec 2015 #49

Was he not Senator of all 50? VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #50

Can you smell that? VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #51