2016 Postmortem

Bleacher Creature

(11,504 posts)

36. If this holds up, it's going to be a very short primary.

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 02:26 PM

Dec 2015

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not claiming that Clinton is "inevitable'" nor am I claiming that it's "her turn." I realize full well that there is still a long way to go and that primary elections can turn quickly.

That said, PPP is a well respected pollster. Not only that, we generally know that Clinton has the far better field team in IA, and has hopefully learned from 2008 the importance of understanding the esoteric caucus rules.

Again, there's a long way to go, but a blowout in IA is a real possibility. If that happens, Sanders needs NH just to stay in the race, because SC is also going to be a blowout. And then, he needs to deal with the fact the the demographics of the Super Tuesday states heavily favor Clinton.

I'm not predicting anything yet, but I won't be surprised if this is all over within a month of IA.

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Iowa PPP polling Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders Hillary 54% BS 34% MOM 7% [View all] Historic NY Dec 2015 OP

HRC has a higher favorable rating than Bernie!? book_worm Dec 2015 #1

The way a poll would work in Iowa is to ask voters who literally are going to caucus all day yeoman6987 Dec 2015 #7

Awesome!!! workinclasszero Dec 2015 #2

PPP - Pay to Play Polling. LOL JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #3

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #4

Difficult to say JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #8

We know that because those polling orgs announce when sufrommich Dec 2015 #10

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #11

Someone pays for all the polls its called business? Historic NY Dec 2015 #31

Don't like the poll numbers, kill the messenger. LOL! demosincebirth Dec 2015 #6

Hey, they took money from Hillary's campaign before; they ruined their own reputation. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #9

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #12

We know CNN expects to make a great deal of money from Hillary, but... JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #13

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #14

This is not about me liking or disliking any particular poll JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #19

Polling firms are a business upaloopa Dec 2015 #28

What pollster has Sanders hired? NCTraveler Dec 2015 #29

So, when Sanders hires a polling company--and takes his money, is that company's reputation ruined? riversedge Dec 2015 #34

Bernie supporters throw all polling under the bus unless it's favorable for sanders FloridaBlues Dec 2015 #35

Iowans know Bernie Chitown Kev Dec 2015 #5

Kinda meaningless without knowing who was called or what they were asked. Scuba Dec 2015 #15

They called IA voters and asked him whom they will be voting for. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #21

And how is "voters" defined? Scuba Dec 2015 #22

Mr. or Ms. Scuba, do you plan to vote in the Iowa caucus? DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #23

That's not relavent. What is relavent is ... Scuba Dec 2015 #25

Here is a link to aggregate polling. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #26

That's OK; it's pretty clear why you don't want to answer. Scuba Dec 2015 #30

I supplied you with a veritable potpourri of polls that employ a myriad of methodologies DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #32

Consistent upward climb since mid-September... brooklynite Dec 2015 #16

Caught me Godhumor Dec 2015 #17

That trend workinclasszero Dec 2015 #18

Love it! <3 NurseJackie Dec 2015 #20

Nice! ismnotwasm Dec 2015 #24

IOWA 12/15 PPP poll: Clinton > Sanders w/ men 15pts; liberals 19pts**; women 21pts; moderates 22pts riversedge Dec 2015 #27

Maybe once the voters finally find out who Bernie is his numbers giftedgirl77 Dec 2015 #33

If this holds up, it's going to be a very short primary. Bleacher Creature Dec 2015 #36