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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I know the DU is only a petri dish in the big picture but [View all]Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)21. Yes - since you asked.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html?_r=0
Election polling is in near crisis, and we pollsters know. Two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of election and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys. Coupled, they have made high-quality research much more expensive to do, so there is less of it. This has opened the door for less scientifically based, less well-tested techniques. To top it off, a perennial election polling problem, how to identify likely voters, has become even thornier.
In terms of speed, the growth of cellphones is like few innovations in our history. About 10 years ago, opinion researchers began taking seriously the threat that the advent of cellphones posed to our established practice of polling people by calling landline phone numbers generated at random. At that time, the National Health Interview Survey, a high-quality government survey conducted through in-home interviews, estimated that about 6 percent of the public used only cellphones. The N.H.I.S. estimate for the first half of 2014 found that this had grown to 43 percent, with another 17 percent mostly using cellphones. In other words, a landline-only sample conducted for the 2014 elections would miss about three-fifths of the American public, almost three times as many as it would have missed in 2008.
In terms of speed, the growth of cellphones is like few innovations in our history. About 10 years ago, opinion researchers began taking seriously the threat that the advent of cellphones posed to our established practice of polling people by calling landline phone numbers generated at random. At that time, the National Health Interview Survey, a high-quality government survey conducted through in-home interviews, estimated that about 6 percent of the public used only cellphones. The N.H.I.S. estimate for the first half of 2014 found that this had grown to 43 percent, with another 17 percent mostly using cellphones. In other words, a landline-only sample conducted for the 2014 elections would miss about three-fifths of the American public, almost three times as many as it would have missed in 2008.
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I think soon after the elections are over, you pro-Hillary guys won't be seen on DU again
Cal33
Dec 2015
#5
Yes, too busy not putting on bumper stickers, not Tweeting, not talking on Facebook...
reformist2
Dec 2015
#115
Exactly. She has WallStreet, Bernie has Main street. There arr more voters than bankers!
peacebird
Dec 2015
#153
Because no matter how popular you are, you can't pull crowds that size non-stop
Kentonio
Dec 2015
#56
Well, if one side votes and the otherside does not, it non-voters as not being energized.
Bubzer
Dec 2015
#64
Your argument is a non sequiter...I didn't say that all likly voters participated in the online vote
Bubzer
Dec 2015
#71
You're wrong about that. Enthusiasm breeds participation. There's a VERY strong connection there.
Bubzer
Dec 2015
#75
It is your conclusions about those that do not participate in online polls I question
hack89
Dec 2015
#123
Yes a scientific poll is an educated guess. Anyone claiming otherwise is selling somthing.
Bubzer
Dec 2015
#106
Bully for you! Statistical theory is a great field of study. But, your still wrong.
Bubzer
Dec 2015
#112
Stop with the critical thinking, citizen! She is winning and it is your duty to vote for her! (nt)
jeff47
Dec 2015
#10
We have a landline, but it is really Skype. And we screen calls automatically so that if the
JDPriestly
Dec 2015
#67
We screen all of our calls. If we don't know someone, the phone probably will not even ring
JDPriestly
Dec 2015
#63
Given that the poll results vary by 10-15 points, I *would* say that a lot of them must be wrong!
reformist2
Dec 2015
#116
My annoyance with things like this is that they usually insist that you BE a lawyer...
brooklynite
Dec 2015
#80
"the internet is more accessible than landing on a call list and receiving a phone call"
Cali_Democrat
Dec 2015
#95
Clinton suffers from a huge enthusiasm gap. This might bite her in the ass in Iowa.
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#105
So the Democrats should have nominated Maggie Thatcher to run against Nixon?
Attorney in Texas
Dec 2015
#118