O’Malley: Sanders fine with 'rigged' Dem debates

[DemocratSinceBirth]

92. Your words

Your words:

I trust Nate Silver. CBS uses the same methods as Selzer.

-Coffee Cat

Bloomberg/Selzer methodology

Methodology
Dec 12 (Bloomberg) — The Iowa Poll, conducted December 7-10 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register
by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely
or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will
attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 2,635 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r64LeSt1xPPk

CBS/YougGov Methodology

The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4,860 respondents, and the second wave fieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3,952 respondents and the third wave between November 15-19, 2015. The fourth wave was fielded between December 13-17, 2015. The majority of the 2nd-4th wave respondents are recontacted panelists. Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are “opt-in” panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/09/13/methodology-2016-cbs-news-battleground-tracker/

Your words, again:

I think aggregate polling is fine for national poll

and polls in states where primaries aren't imminent.

When you've got a state that is in complete flux, because the campaigns are in 4th gear--with incessant television ads, multiple rallies happening daily, nonstop media coverage, phone calling and canvassing campaigns--and the media camped out and covering politics 24/7--then aggregate polling is outdated.

-Coffee Cat

The Selzer Poll you are hanging your hat on is three weeks old.


http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r64LeSt1xPPk

Two questions:

Does CBS/You Gov use the same methodology as Selzer as you claimed or do they not?

(and)


How can a three week old poll still be accurate in a race "that is in complete flux" as you claimed?

Thank you in advance.