2016 Postmortem

regnaD kciN

(27,683 posts)

6. There is definitely a fade already...

Fri Sep 14, 2012, 03:11 PM

Sep 2012

Two days ago, it was 50-43, yesterday, it was 50-44, and now it's down to 49-44. Each day's current results have been worse than the day that dropped off. Since this is a seven-day poll, there still may be a lot of high Obama margin days right after convention ready to drop off in the next few days. By mid-next week, I wouldn't be surprised to see it back to a two- or three-point margin.

Convention bounces fade -- that's a fact. The issue is whether Obama will take away a lasting gain, even if it two or three points. At this point, I'd say yes...but not much more than that.

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Gallup - Obama (+5) [View all] TroyD Sep 2012 OP

Need to get it above 50%. The magic number. longship Sep 2012 #1

100% post-convention TroyD Sep 2012 #2

If there was a fade to the bounce, we should be seeing signs of that by now. BlueStreak Sep 2012 #3

If there was, it's probably been wiped out by Romneyshambles Ebadlun Sep 2012 #4

Indeed. The campaign is deep in their bunkers rationalizing that BlueStreak Sep 2012 #5

There is definitely a fade already... regnaD kciN Sep 2012 #6

You may be right, but I note BlueStreak Sep 2012 #7

On yesterday's Ipsos tracking, Obama jumped to 7% Blue Yorker Sep 2012 #8

'Gallup has a slight pro-Republican bias this season.' TroyD Sep 2012 #9

Given the trend the next few days will probably have Obama up by 2-3 WI_DEM Sep 2012 #10