2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: First New Hampshire Poll Of The New Year -PPP (D) HRC 47% (+3) SBS 44% (+2) MOM 3% (-5) [View all]Sancho
(9,173 posts)If anything, the last few weeks have indicated a slight gain by Hillary after the last debate. If there was a mercy rule in politics, they would call this game. The media give Bernie some positives to make the news interesting and because the repub stations would do anything to defeat Hillary; but it's not a close contest right now. The best thing for Hillary would be to get lots of attention in a primary and win after a vigorous contest. The DNC seems to have orchestrated a good plan. Kudos to DWS. If Hillary wins the GE, DWS will get credit for a well-conceived election strategy to elect the first woman President.
State polls (from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html)
Iowa:
Gravis 12/18 - 12/21 418 LV 5.0 49 31 10 Clinton +18
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 459 LV 8.6 50 45 4 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 12/10 - 12/13 526 LV 4.3 52 34 7 Clinton +18
Des Moines Register 12/7 - 12/10 404 LV 4.9 48 39 4 Clinton +9
FOX News 12/7 - 12/10 357 LV 5.0 50 36 5 Clinton +14
NH:
PPP (D) 1/4 - 1/6 480 LV 4.5 44 47 3 Clinton +3
ARG 12/20 - 12/20 600 LV 4.0 43 46 3 Clinton +3
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 458 LV 7.5 56 42 1 Sanders +14
Boston Herald 12/13 - 12/17 410 LV 4.8 48 46 2 Sanders +2
SC:
CBS News/YouGov 12/14 - 12/17 380 LV 9.7 67 31 2 Clinton +36
FOX News 12/5 - 12/8 364 LV 5.0 65 21 3 Clinton +44
Nevada:
Gravis 12/23 - 12/27 326 LV 5.0 50 27 1 Clinton +23
CNN/ORC 10/3 - 10/10 253 LV 6.0 50 34 0 Clinton +16
Mass:
Boston Globe/Suffolk 11/19 - 11/22 241 LV 6.3 54 29 3 Clinton +25
Emerson College 10/16 - 10/18 265 LV 6.0 59 25 3 Clinton +34
MN:
PPP (D) 7/30 - 8/2 426 RV 4.9 50 32 4 Clinton +18
Suffolk 4/24 - 4/28 100 LV 9.8 63 -- -- Clinton +48
PPP (D) 1/18 - 1/20 373 RV 5.1 59 -- 1 Clinton +45
NC:
PPP (D) 12/5 - 12/7 555 RV 4.2 60 21 10 Clinton +39
Elon University 10/29 - 11/2 514 RV 4.3 57 24 3 Clinton +33
OK:
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6 11/12 - 11/15 389 LV 5.1 47 12 2 Clinton +35
The Oklahoman 10/19 - 10/22 350 RV 5.4 30 21 1 Clinton +9
LA:
WWL-TV/Clarus 9/20 - 9/23 57 22 7 2 1 0 Clinton +35
MI:
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell 9/18 - 9/18 538 LV 35 28 22 -- -- -- Clinton +7
MRG 9/9 - 9/14 600 LV 41 22 22 0 1 0 Clinton +19
FL:
Florida Atlantic University 11/15 - 11/16 297 LV 5.6 66 22 4 Clinton +44
Bay News 9/News 13 10/28 - 11/1 922 LV -- 66 24 3 Clinton +42
UNF 10/14 - 10/19 632 RV 3.9 55 16 0 Clinton +39
Missouri:
PPP (D) 8/7 - 8/9 352 LV 5.2 53 25 5 5 1 Clinton +28
OH:
Quinnipiac 9/25 - 10/5 40 21 19 1 0 0 0 Clinton +19
Quinnipiac 8/7 - 8/18 47 14 17 -- 0 1 0 Clinton +30
Quinnipiac 6/4 - 6/15 60 13 10 -- 1 0 0 Clinton +47
PPP (D) 6/4 - 6/7 61 -- 13 -- 2 1 2 Clinton +48
Quinnipiac 3/17 - 3/28 54 9 3 -- 3 2 -- Clinton +40
Quinnipiac 1/22 - 2/1 51 7 5 -- 1 0 -- Clinton +37