2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(101,609 posts)

78. I am basing my prediction of the outcome...

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:13 PM

Jan 2016

I am basing my prediction of the outcome that nothing will shake Hillary Clinton's non-white support, nothing...

I do not buy the notion that non-white voters are going to be swayed by the results from two of the nation's most homogeneous states, regardless of how they vote.

There are no parallels between Senator Sanders's 016 campaign and Barack Obama's 08 campaign. Polling showed African Americans were perfectly content to vote for Hillary Clinton until Barack Obama demonstrated his viability by winning a predominately white state. Once he proved his viability by winning IA African Americans embraced the chance to break the color barrier of the presidency by voting for him. Obviously, that impetus is lacking in this primary season

Also, Hillary Clinton's Hispanic support never wavered. She carried them 2-1 over Barack Obama.

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First New Hampshire Poll Of The New Year -PPP (D) HRC 47% (+3) SBS 44% (+2) MOM 3% (-5) [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 OP

Landlines / internet. bunnies Jan 2016 #1

Thank you for your kind words and may I share this with you in the same spirit DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #3

This is no longer 2012. bunnies Jan 2016 #5

The most recent poll beside PPP showed a similar HRC lead. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #20

I suppose time will tell. bunnies Jan 2016 #52

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #22

I believe Twitter and Facebook polls lack proper controls./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #29

Nate silver gives it a B minus with a conservative bias. kenfrequed Jan 2016 #2

I believe it was Great Nate, himself, who suggested a Sanders victory was improbable DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #6

Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #19

Here is the list our friend is working from. You decide. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #23

Or when he claimed the only challenge to Hillary could be from the Right and chose Jim Webb... JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #27

Enten is ridiculous and has been for quite some time kenfrequed Jan 2016 #65

The crazy thing is that if Hillary wins, he will still have a job in that field. JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #66

Yep. John Poet Jan 2016 #55

Again with these BS polls, ppp is not trustworthy when its run by Hillary's people like David Brock litlbilly Jan 2016 #4

I believe the CEO is Dean Debnam. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #8

So all those polls showing Bernie up by 10 in NH are bogus? Just wondering litlbilly Jan 2016 #12

Actually the polling is in flux with recent polling showing a tilt toward Madame Secretary DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #14

Whereas a Wall Street Journal Poll showing Sanders ahead (11 points!) got nary a challenge... brooklynite Jan 2016 #13

If you notice that was a landline poll whose results we are instructed to ignore. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #16

It's normal for Democrats to ignore Wall Street polls. Cal33 Jan 2016 #30

Unless they're Sanders' supporters. brooklynite Jan 2016 #31

I couldn't care less whatever Wall Strseet says -- be it anti, pro or neutral about any person, Cal33 Jan 2016 #39

Thx DSB. You know the only polls that count for BS people are those showing him ahead. Alfresco Jan 2016 #7

It is consistent with the very last poll taken in New Hamphire DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #10

Hm. jkbRN Jan 2016 #9

Please see Post 10 DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #11

I'd say those lines are about to cross... brooklynite Jan 2016 #15

I wonder why we didn't see the questioning of You Gov's methodology DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #17

Could be better ... but it looks good to me! NurseJackie Jan 2016 #18

New Hampshire should be his wheelhouse. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #21

I think it's because Bernie's message isn't resonating with people outside of a certain segment. NurseJackie Jan 2016 #24

There isn't one thing you wrote I would demur from. I won't say more. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #25

Bill's time in NH may already be having an impact. He can be very convincing. Alfresco Jan 2016 #26

Excellent point, Alfresco, excellent point. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #28

I just read the link below. You might not find it so excellent. Cal33 Jan 2016 #32

Thank you for the link. Glad you keep me in mind. I will give it the attention it deserves. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #35

Former White House interns all agree on that ! John Poet Jan 2016 #56

Bill has superpowers you could learn from, well maybe. Link provided. Alfresco Jan 2016 #57

Superb! DCBob Jan 2016 #33

NH = East Vermont? Gamecock Lefty Jan 2016 #34

NH is not East Vermont. bunnies Jan 2016 #53

If she can win NH... Alfresco Jan 2016 #36

I believe this poll has caused much consternation in some quarters, you?/nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #38

Yep. I noticed too. Alfresco Jan 2016 #40

Do you think that their protestations notwithstanding they see it as a harbinger of things to come? DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #41

Some see, some do not. Alfresco Jan 2016 #42

I believe Elisabeth Kubler Ross has addressed this phenomenon./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #43

Or to put it another way.. Kentonio Jan 2016 #70

I admire your confidence. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #74

My confidence is about Iowa and NH. I've said from the beginning that the nomination was a long shot Kentonio Jan 2016 #76

I am basing my prediction of the outcome... DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #78

We shall see. Kentonio Jan 2016 #79

Bill Clinton lost IA and NH. it didn't hurt him. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #80

Given that Bernie is stronger on those issues than Hillary, we'll have to agree to disagree. Kentonio Jan 2016 #81

Respectfully, that is subjective DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #82

I understood that blame for any wrongs during Bill's terms were not to be laid at Hillary's door? Kentonio Jan 2016 #83

I see that argument made here with great frequency. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #84

Bush has plenty of blame owed to him. Kentonio Jan 2016 #85

Actually... OilemFirchen Jan 2016 #47

That's pretty funny. Kentonio Jan 2016 #71

It wasn't meant to be. OilemFirchen Jan 2016 #72

I know. Kentonio Jan 2016 #73

Oh - that polling firm that gets some money from the Clinton campaign. Fawke Em Jan 2016 #37

Looks like New Hampshire will come down to what it always comes down to. MohRokTah Jan 2016 #44

Barack obama had a 8 point lead last time DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #45

Like I said. Ground Game. MohRokTah Jan 2016 #46

Panic in Bernieland Overly Jan 2016 #48

... Alfresco Jan 2016 #54

NH was always just a bonus for Clinton. Bleacher Creature Jan 2016 #49

The pressure is all on Senator Sanders./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #50

It will be all over if Hillary wins there. RandySF Jan 2016 #51

National polls have been consistent for a couple months: Hillary in the 50-60% range, Bernie 20-30% Sancho Jan 2016 #58

Outstanding analysis. DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #60

If Bernie can't win over his neighbors in NH, his run will end sooner rather than later. baldguy Jan 2016 #59

It's gonna be a nail-biter, for sure. MineralMan Jan 2016 #61

virtually no change since their last poll which had Hillary up by 2. book_worm Jan 2016 #62

Which is great news. That should be Senator Sanders' wheelhouse./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #63

TY/nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #63

K and R--and thanks riversedge Jan 2016 #67

You are welcome./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jan 2016 #68

Hillary Clinton lead Bernie Sanders by 3 points in New Hampshire Tweet riversedge Jan 2016 #69

Time to get out the millennial vote ohiolover Jan 2016 #75

Bernie's numbers bolstered by non-Democratic voters Sheepshank Jan 2016 #77