The South is Ready To Save Hillary Clinton

[CoffeeCat]

121. I don't look at averages like that...

...because there are so many horrendously bunk polls out there. It's a banner year for unscientific, bizarre methodologies. And it's really frustrating to those of us who care about accuracy and good data.

I spent a great deal of time pouring over the polling methodologies. The Loras Poll is one of those polls in your average. It has Clinton up by 32 points in Iowa. That's clearly ridiculous. Read through the methodologies, who they exclude and who they include.
Loras, along with the Monmouth Poll (which you did not list) is garbage. An embarrassment to polling.

Another reason that I don't look at these lumped polls from a month ago, is because major shifts in Iowa started to happen two weeks ago. They campaigns are are ramped up now; more rallies, more ground game, more television ads, more media stories. The Iowa dynamics have shifted some in the past two weeks, and are in the process of completely turning our state into caucus central.

Some polls get it right. Many are bunk. Those averages include the bunk. I also looked at rolling averages from 2008. Again, some polls had it right; some were off. And the rolling averages that included the "off" polls were off nearly 10 points of the actual 2008 caucus result.

Because there are so many lazy, sloppy pollsters out there, I'm forced to primarily rely on Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll, which showed Sanders down by only 9. That came out in late November, so I don't have a lot to hang my hat on, poll-wise.

The Quinnipiac poll that comes out next week, looks promising, but I won't rely on it until I read the fine print. I'm only paying attention to select, reliable, science based polls. You want to show me where the race is, show me the next Selzer Iowa Poll. It comes out in 2-3 weeks.

I see a lot on the ground in Iowa, and I know for sure that Bernie has gained ground from late November, when that Iowa Poll (Clinton +9) was released. I'm betting that Quinnipiac will show a nice bump for Bernie. There is so much enthusiasm for Bernie and not as much for Clinton. He seems to be gathering momentum in our state.