Destroy this meme, "Bernie can't win in the general election, that's why we need

[jeff47]

12. It's untrue because we can count to 270.

To win the presidency, you need 270 electoral votes. Your nationwide popularity is irrelevant for whether or not you are sworn in.

We don't need a candidate that can try to make Texas competitive in 2016. Because we won't win Texas in 2016, just like the Republican won't win NY or CA in 2016. And we don't need to win Texas in 2016.

Yes, Clinton polls higher than the Republican field. But we don't have a national popular vote. She gets just as many electoral votes from CA with a 90-10 win as a 51-49 win, but that 90-10 scenario looks great in national polling.

Instead, the race to 270 is critical, and she's much more of a risk there.

Right now, the Democratic nominee has 257 electoral votes locked up. They're the electoral votes for the "blue" states. The only way those votes go to a Republican is an incompetent Democratic campaign.

To win, the Democratic nominee needs 1 large "purple" state, or 2 small "purple" states. Get VA and you win. Get CO and IA and you win. Each of those are pretty easy for the Democratic nominee - VA needs to overwhelm rural turnout with DC suburb turnout, and both CO and IA respond well to populism.

The Republican candidate starts with 149 electoral votes locked up - the "red" states. Lower population, so fewer electoral votes. To reach 270, the Republican candidate needs all 10 "purple" states, and needs to turn one blue state. That is going to be very, very hard. It's one of the main reasons the Republican field is such a clown car - the people who can count all the way to 270 are staying out of the race.

There's only one glimmer of hope for the Republicans: Turnout. If Democrats stay home and Republicans turn out, they can win.

The centrism that has guided Clinton's career has been shown to hurt turnout in 2014, 2010, 2004, 2002 and 2000. It relies on voting against the Republican instead of voting for the Democrat. "Crazy liberal ideas" won in 2008 and 2006 via higher Democratic turnout - Democrats gave candidates to vote for, instead of "vote against the Republican".

If Clinton can't pull off her sudden conversion to populism, then she may cripple Democratic turnout. At the same time, Republicans have spent the last 30 years convincing their base that the Clintons are Satan incarnate. Her presence on the ballot would be a huge boost to Republican turnout. Risking losses in "rural/urban divide" states that make up all of the "purple" states and some of the "blue" states.