An experiment regarding "Bernie supporter sexism"

[Jim Lane]

20. The influence of the VP pick

Years ago I read some political science research on this -- the conclusion was that the VP can deliver a boost of 3-4% in his or her home state. That could be enough. In 2004, the official count in Ohio gave Bush a margin of 2.1% of the vote. If Kerry had picked Strickland (then a Congressmember) instead of Edwards, and if that pick had boosted him by 3% in Ohio without hurting him anywhere else (except North Carolina, which he lost anyway), then Kerry would have become President.

Overall, though, I think you're right that the geographic factor is less important than it once was. In 2008, each major-party candidate picked a running mate from a small state that was already in the bag anyway.

As for the Clinton supporters, the ones on DU are, as compared with the average voter, more ideologically oriented and therefore more likely to recoil in horror from Trump or Cruz. Out in the real world, I think there are plenty of Clinton supporters who would incline to support Sanders (if he's nominated) but wouldn't incline real strongly. If they feel slighted, they might not bother to vote.