Will supporters of Bernie vote for Hillary as PUMAs voted for Obama? [View all]

[merrily]

WARNING: Please do not reply to this OP with anything that might get you a hide or a ban. If you post in this group often, odds are, I like you and do not want to see you banished, unless that is what you consciously want. You can always reply as to what you think people in general will do, not as to your own intentions, as you now see them.



Politicians and pundits tend to draw from past elections whatever lessons they wish to teach the hoi polloi (us). However, as I suspect they discuss among themselves, each election is really a one off. "They" are telling us now that supporters of Bernie will vote for Hillary, if she is the nominee, much as PUMAs voted for Obama in 2008. Whether courtesy of DNA or Sesame Street, I tend to see differences between and among superficially similar things. And, I see that 2016 is not like 2008 and supporters of Bernie are not like PUMAs.

In 2007, I chose "my" primary candidate based upon my assessment of the best chance to win the general, full stop. In May 2105, however, I chose my primary candidate based on historic policies, principles and trustworthiness. I don't imagine many looked at Hillary and Bernie in May 2015 and thought, as between these two, Bernie is the shoo in." Once he began drawing tens of thousands to his rallies, perhaps many people saw that, but I doubt many did in May 2015.

In 2008, Obama and Hillary were both establishment candidates. In 2016, Hillary is; Bernie was never establishment. Bernie always said that he ran as an independent because he did not want to be beholden to the big donors of the Democratic Party (and their legislative wishes). Many of Bernie's supporters are disillusioned current or former Democrats or never were Democrats. I don't see that group of his supporters voting for Hillary, if she is the nominee, simply because Bernie endorses her, no matter how much they admire him. (If endorsements swayed them, they would probably be supporting Hillary now.)

In 2008, many of Hillary's supporters were angry about the way in which the Party and the media treated Hillary, something I saw and admitted, even as a strong Obama supporter. Those things were indeed enough to turn some of Hillary's supporters to voting for McCain or staying home. However, party loyalty and the full-throated support of the Clintons for Obama won back many of them. The perception of PUMAs of Party and media discrimination against Hillary in 2008 is nothing compared with the perception of those things by supporters of Bernie.

In 2008, Hillary still had her eyes on the Oval Office, probably also on Secretary of State or Vice President, and therefore had a personal interest in having the PUMAs vote for Obama and remain loyal Democrats. I doubt Bernie has his eyes on another run for the Oval Office if he is not the 2016 nominee. (If Bernie runs in 8 years, I am not even sure I would would support him!)

In 2008, many voters were convinced that simply voting Democratic would suffice to get them a President with the principles and policies they associated with Democrats like FDR and LBJ (sans, of course, the wars, internment, etc.) My sense--and it's only my sense--is that fewer voters believe that now. Whether they will vote for Hillary anyway on the lesser of two evils theory, if she the nominee, I have no idea. Despite polling to the contrary, if any, I doubt anyone does know.

In 2008, Obama attempted to woo Republican voters who were more sane, more pro-choice, etc. than Republicans in general. The Obama campaign highlighted Julie Eisenhower's saying she would vote for Obama, but I did not hear much about "Obamacans" after that. This time, it looks as though both Hillary and Bernie would get some Republican votes, especially if Trump is the nominee. Kasich, however, would skew that issue very differently from Trump or Cruz. I don't know how this issue will play out in November, no matter who is the Democratic nominee.

Perhaps most importantly in my mind: In 2008, both candidates were indeed similar in policy, if not in temperament, gender, race or religion: Hillary is Methodist and I don't think Rev. Wright's church is Methodist. Health care was the policy difference that stands out most in my mind from 2008: Obama campaigned on a strong public option and no individual mandate. She did not. (We all know what happened.) The 2016 candidates are very different from each other in policy and perceived trustworthiness.

In 2016, Hillary's surrogates and supporters and others have, on occasion claimed that Bernie and Hillary are very similar in policy, having voted the same X% of the time, but that is very misleading. (For my explanation, please see http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511547074#post14 and http://www.democraticunderground.com/128037156 ) Although Hillary has changed her stump speech considerably from 2008, polls show people do not necessarily believe that she really espouses these changes or trust her to pursue them wholeheartedly should she become President. This is especially true of those supporters of Bernie who are most familiar with her history and his.

Lastly, THE SUPREME COURT, ever the ultimate argument of Democrats and now of both Democrats and Republicans. That, too, has changed from 2008. This year, Obama supposedly considered nominating a Republican (or maybe that was publicized so that the actual nominee would come as a relief to Democrats, who knows?). http://jackpineradicals.org/showthread.php?4975-Obama-Considers-Nominating-a-Republican-to-the-Supreme-Court-of-the-United-States Obama did nominate a law and order moderate--and, even at that, Republicans may not bring his confirmation to the floor, let alone confirm him. Compare that with Democrat's having confirmed Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito. If Democrats refuse to block another extreme right-wing, anti-choice nomination to the SCOTUS, shame on Democratic Senators. Professional Democrats, from DNC heads to politicians to pundits and strategists, would do themselves and the Party a solid, IMO, to stop blaming Republican politicians and those who vote Democratic for every single thing that goes wrong in this country: Take responsibility and Democrat up!

Bottom line: Assumptions that Bernie's supporters of 2016 will behave the way that Hillary's supporters did in 2008 are not taking in the differences in the candidates, the election-year climates, or the voting populations. If Hillary is the nominee, I assume and expect that a majority of Democratic supporters of Bernie will vote for her or not vote at all. However, I firmly believe that many will vote Green, write in Bernie or not vote the top of the ticket, assuming that they show up at that polls at all. I hope they do: If nothing else, down ticket races are at least as important as the Presidential and many "Sanders Democrats" are running down ticket, including Tim Canova, who is making Debbie Wasserman Schultz face her first primary ever, and many great state and local candidates.
http://jackpineradicals.org/showthread.php?4694-Bernie-s-Coat-Tails-Important-List-of-Bernie-Democrats-Running-for-Office

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Edited version posted at http://jackpineradicals.org/content.php