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(36,063 posts)
7. I'm really unsure of how it will go here...
Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:18 AM
Mar 2016

Primary voter participation is traditionally low in WI. Any candidate of a major party that can GOTV an additional 20k-30k voters is in a very strong position.

WI will have an open primary, the Trump campaign is a real wild card in this state that has significant influence of radical republican participation. While anti-austerity/anti-Walker sentiment is strong among Democrats here, the Stop Trump movement is being pushed hard. It could motivate thousands of independent voters here, and thereby suck up important fractions of the economically disgruntled vote in the Green Bay, Wausau and Janesville/Beloit areas.

There is a lot of confusion around the new voter ID law... but being a state with limited mass transit most adults have drivers licenses and there has been some democratic effort to assist getting non-drivers IDs. During last months run-off elections in Milw, voter performance wasn't much affected by the ID law. Voting was about as abysmally low as usual.

The population of seniors in WI has fallen by a bit over 2%, The population is a bit less white (non-Hispanic) -1% since 2010. Among minorities the greatest percent change is in Hispanics +1.

My guess is the WI election won't be a blow-out. I expect the pattern to look more like other midwestern states than the west coast. I expect Clinton will do very well in urban/metro SE Wisconsin. There is military ship-building and military vehicle production in eastern WI north of Milwaukee which may help Clinton.

Sanders will have success across the state in small population counties that have towns with larger state universities (places like Eau Claire, Stevens Point and LaCrosse). Dane Co, Madison and the UW-flagship campus, may actually be in play as student population and AA population appear to be on opposite sides. I expect Sanders to do well in the northwest of the state (Superior) which has a deep history with labor. If he doesn't that could indicate trouble for him.

Poll: Predictions for Wisconsin? [View all] blueintelligentsia Mar 2016 OP
My pin point target number +17 Half-Century Man Mar 2016 #1
From my last poll re: WA blueintelligentsia Mar 2016 #2
Damn! Bernin4U Mar 2016 #3
YEAH! 75% of us underestimated his win margin!!! n/t blueintelligentsia Mar 2016 #4
Number 1: Turnout will be key. Left Coast2020 Mar 2016 #5
There is huge pressure on to STOP TRUMP here, in an open primary that's a wild card HereSince1628 Mar 2016 #8
54/46 davidpdx Mar 2016 #6
I'm really unsure of how it will go here... HereSince1628 Mar 2016 #7
Check your registration & ID to be prepared - TBF Mar 2016 #9
I'm not going to be on edge as I have been previously.. Left Coast2020 Mar 2016 #10
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