Bernie Sanders
In reply to the discussion: Missing the whole Bernie Sanders point [View all]Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)I care about 2 things in the 2016 General Election: 1) A Democrat wins the POTUS. 2) Democrats, even if DINO's, win back the Senate Majority.
Look at this last month of SCOTUS decisions alone, then the decisions of the past 8+ years. It is HIGHLY likely that over the next POTUS term at LEAST 1x SCOTUS appointment will open up with 1x conservative (Scalia), 1x liberal (Ginsburg), and 1x swing (Kennedy). Possible even 2x of those positions. All 3 justices are, or will be over 80 by that election cycle. That at least 1 will either retire, face illness forcing retirement, or possibly even pass on is much more than a small possibility. Imagine either Ginsburg or Kennedy being replaced with another Scalia type.. yeah, terrifying. Now imagine either Kennedy or Scalia being replaced by another Ginsburg type.. yeah, that's the smile I'm looking for.
Right now, I have yet to see a model indicating Bernie even coming close to winning a General election. If he wins the Democratic nomination of the primary, I'll be 100% behind him regardless of his chances in the general. When I see any indication he could win in the General comparable to Hillary's chances of winning the general.. I'll be in his camp.
I get why so many, especially here, love him. I adore Bernie, his style, and almost all of his positions on the issues as well. For these upcoming election cycles though, I need more.. I need to know that he can win. Sure, he'll get most if not all of New England.. He will get California, he will get most if not all of the traditionally Democratic states (so would Hillary). He will NOT get Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Nebraska, or any of the traditionally red states (and neither will Hillary).
The question is.. How will he pull the swing states? How will he win over a Republican in states like Ohio, and Florida (hell those 2 states have been the "king maker" states for so many cycles now it isn't even funny)? Show me how he can win over the moderates, and take the swing states. From what I've seen in the polling (granted it IS still very early) he doesn't have a realistic shot of it at all.