Did Bernie Sanders Just Win The Election?

[jeff47]

5. We don't have a single national primary.

So no, he doesn't need 30% nationally. He needs to win some early states, which converts him from "Bernie who?" or "I like him but he can't win" into a major candidate while also putting big dents in Clinton's inevitability strategy.

Right now, Team Clinton has put out statements all but conceding NH to Sanders. Which isn't terribly surprising - Sanders should be very familiar with NH. Team Clinton has also started lowering expectations for Iowa.

You don't do either of those this early unless the internal polling looks really bad.

Basically, South Carolina will decide if Clinton wins or not. If she loses that after losing IA and NH, she's done. It's also why Team Clinton is spending such an enormous amount of effort forgetting their 2008 campaign...er...pushing the Sanders supporters are white racists...er...reaching out to PoC angle.

Win SC and she can stay in the race. Lose SC and her poll numbers tank. Sanders just started seriously campaigning there, so we'll see what happens.