Bernie Sanders

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)

16. Looking at polls in late July and August with and without Biden running

Mon Sep 7, 2015, 08:29 AM

Sep 2015

Looking at the individual polls and the running averages at RCP, Biden support divided slightly less than half to Clinton, about half the remainder to Sanders and the remainder across OMalley, Chafee and Webb.

The recent media surrounding Biden's mulling entry shows similar impact.

One of the interesting things about Biden's trajectory on the polling reported at RCP is on that three occasions upward pulses in Biden have been related to downward slips in Clinton.

Only in the most recent rise in Biden's numbers is there a drop in Sanders running average. It's hard to say if that's a Biden effect as the Clinton surrogates undertook a round of serious opposition campaigning beginning in early August.

Significantly for democrats...none of the change in Sanders numbers seems to have yet forestalled the downward erosion of Clinton's polling numbers.

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A cautionary note about the excitement over the polls showing Bernie up, way up over [View all] JDPriestly Sep 2015 OP

From the analysis I've read Biden Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #1

I agree. But what happens to the support now being attributed to Biden if Biden does JDPriestly Sep 2015 #2

Look at the data on this recent poll Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #3

If Hillary is the nominee, we'll be in big trouble. merrily Sep 2015 #5

++++++++++++ swilton Sep 2015 #30

Thanks. I just don't want Sanders supporters to be disappointed if there is a rise JDPriestly Sep 2015 #7

The thing is no matter what Ichingcarpenter Sep 2015 #8

Beautiful! Thanks! JDPriestly Sep 2015 #9

I'll say there's a probability of some droppage. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Sep 2015 #12

That's true, and the problem for them ... Babel_17 Sep 2015 #18

It's us, though. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Sep 2015 #19

Yes, it's great that the Sanders campaign produces lots of advocates Babel_17 Sep 2015 #21

Your "Clinton Castle" metaphor & imagery brought to mind... senz Sep 2015 #37

Nice observation Babel_17 Sep 2015 #41

Interesting, thanks. senz Sep 2015 #43

I thought your OP was on target artislife Sep 2015 #34

My politics partner, a pragmatic centrist, is Biden first, Sanders second and ABH third. merrily Sep 2015 #4

Just read a pollster's musing that Biden and Sanders would split the white male Democrat vote Hortensis Sep 2015 #28

Yes. every development this season can only help Hillary. merrily Sep 2015 #29

Well, if Bernie wins we'll get see how the full treatment from the GOP "improves" HIM. Let's not Hortensis Sep 2015 #31

True, though Ann Coulter says she does not want Republicans to run against him. She wants them to ru merrily Sep 2015 #32

Personally, I think both Bernie and Hillary would slice and dice anyone in the GOP field, but Hortensis Sep 2015 #33

The GOP considers their followers safely brainwashed, but senz Sep 2015 #38

When does anything stop most voters of any party from doing that? merrily Sep 2015 #40

We have a majority of women in my group of Bernie volunteers. JDPriestly Sep 2015 #36

Here's a cautionary note for you. This is the Bernie Sanders group and it would Autumn Sep 2015 #42

I agree. Any Biden supporter who has expressed dissatisfaction w/HRC Divernan Sep 2015 #6

Precisely! JDPriestly Sep 2015 #10

Polls do not represent Thespian2 Sep 2015 #11

Good caution Android3.14 Sep 2015 #13

Word of mouth is OUR media, and it's working Demeter Sep 2015 #14

Thanks for pointing this out. The take away from this is that we should never get complacent, GoneFishin Sep 2015 #15

Looking at polls in late July and August with and without Biden running HereSince1628 Sep 2015 #16

The longer they reside inside The Biden Zone Babel_17 Sep 2015 #17

Thanks. Very intelligent analysis and explanation. JDPriestly Sep 2015 #24

keep working to spread the message questionseverything Sep 2015 #20

You said exactly what I was thinking. Cheese Sandwich Sep 2015 #22

I don't think you have to be concerned about Sanders leftcoastmountains Sep 2015 #23

Can't wait for the first debate. JDPriestly Sep 2015 #25

I hope the Bernie campaign is ready for a fix or dirty tricks senz Sep 2015 #39

Agreed. The "Fat Lady" doesn't start to sing until January. . . DinahMoeHum Sep 2015 #26

I've seen no numbers that suggest that Biden's current supporters' mhatrw Sep 2015 #27

I put no stock in polls this early ibegurpard Sep 2015 #35